TIDBITS

So what if minimum wage earners just got a raise, whatever spending impact that might or might not have on the economy.

According to Barron's, citing a report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas, the big executive outplacement firm, last month U.S. employers announced plans to cut 53,000 workers, 40% of them from the energy sector, most of which are higher paying jobs.

Given the just released positive jobs report and, at least for now, stabilizing oil prices, Wall Street consensus for the moment looks for the Fed to hike interest rates in June.

Having gotten the excuses they need to cover their moves, the mood at the Fed despite all the patience blabbers, has been wanting to raise rates. It's one of those ahead-of-or-behind-the curve things. The best bet is they don't have a clue. Ten year Treasury notes last week rose O.26 to yield 1.96%, the biggest one week boost in roughly 19 months.

The oil price jump is being taken as a positive for global economy by many. Coupled with the jobs data, rising bond yields and higher energy prices, it's most likely a sign of the Fed's hoped-for return of inflation, at least that's the way some market participants are seeing it.

Last is the return so far of market volatility and the Fed may be breathing a bit easier as they look for an exit strategy before all this crazy monetary policy blows up in their face. Cover is cover. Running for cover, running for shade when things get too hot to take the blame is as old as bureaucratic institutions themselves.

Gold, which has rallied this year, in the eyes of some has decoupled from its long correlation to oil and the dollar rally at the end of the week took a bit of luster of the yellow metal. One of the expect memes for 2015 is the strong  U.S. dollar. A strong dollar usually means weaker  gold prices.

With Europe beginning its QE program and bond yields there negative or nearly so, flows of money from European investors has been another popular market story to date. What income investor wants to get negative returns for lending out his money.

How well that story will play out is one of those we'll see things.
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Recently, we wrote about Procter and Gamble, the huge consumer brands company, and their expected hit to earnings owing to the strong dollar since a  god portion of their earning come from overseas.

Based on the Insider Transaction Ratio from  Reuters the ratio of the index is  30-plus to 1 sells to buys. Translation: 12:1 ratio considered bullish. 20:1 bearish.

Three P&G insiders apparently just sold 118,605 shares totaling more than $10 million. Now people sell for a variety of reasons, but given the concern about overseas revenue one of the most likely is the expected earnings hit.
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We've written  a lot about oil of late, a sector we closely follow. One stock we own and continue to accumulate on weakness is British Petroleum (BP). We've written about its nasty Gulf oil spill hassles with the greedy U.S. government. Greed is the only word word here.

Last week an editorial in the Financial Times claimed enough is enough, saying the U.S. government--and we agree--is over the top on this one.

Here are the facts, BP has done everything it said it would do after the spill, first owning up to its role, responding rapidly and already doling out a ton of money in fines and restitution.

Here's a blurb from recent  issue of  Barron's:

One beaten-down stock that looks like an opportunity is BP. With a huge 5.8% dividend yield and a technical breakout in place, this stock has an ample cushion to ride out increased volatility. BP started to rally in December and now sports positive indicators in momentum, volume, and relative performance. Not a bad combination, even if crude oil only moves sideways instead of higher for the next few weeks.

The U.S. government greed is not without its messages. Other governments also need  money and they are desperate to get it. Past poor management begets desperate times.

Part of the recent rise in oil is coming from the Libyan situation where violence past and present has impacted production. In mid-2014 civil war broke out and oil production is down 900,000 barrels a day to around 350,000 barrels a day.

Total, the big French firm, responsible for about 30,000-35,000 barrels a day recently closed production. Also, trouble brews around the port there impacting U.S. producers Conoco-Phillips and Marathon Oil.

And last week Saudi Arabia, the 800 pound gorilla of oil production, reduced its prices to Asian buyers while hiking prices to U. S. buyers, a move many see as a shot at U.S. shale  producers. Meanwhile, check your local gas station as prices this week rose 5.4% for the week.
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