Tuesday, February 10, 2015

IN NONSENSE THERE'S STRENGTH

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There's line in Kurt Vonnegut's Breakfast of Champions to describe what's going today in the world's central banks.

If you like lists, here's a good one--China, European Union, Canada, Australia, Denmark and Japan. Those are just a few of the central banks that have been talking up deflation, cutting interest rates and debasing their currencies.

Denmark liked it so much they cut their rates four times in less than fortnight. It's viewed as an act of survival. Japan for now might be the monetary policy Breakfast of Champions. The Japanese central bank appears set to pull the lever and open the flood gate again give or take what happens in the next few months.

According to one source, half the central banks of the Group of 20 developed and large emerging economies have eased their monetary policy this year, some in the form of interest rate cuts and others via more subtle maneuvers.

Left standing at the chapel is the United States. They've already shot that bird. Three times over.

Japan, Denmark and China are all export-dependent countries. And their are others often referred to as emerging markets.

Symbols are symbols and have symbolic meaning for a reason. They predate the Gutenberg press and computers. Look at a dollar and on some still floating around you'll see the symbol of a truncated pyramid with a radiant eye at the top and some Roman numerals etched at the base.

How'd they get there and why? It's a mystery and as Vonnegut wrote: Not even the President of the United States knew what that was all about. It was as though the country were saying to its citizens, 'In nonsense is strength.'

There are some medicines out there, three of them, for those unfortunate enough to have been exposed to AIDs. It's usually from a puncture wound, a needle stick. 

Needle sticks are an occupational hazard for health care providers, policemen, firemen and many others, sometimes just innocents who don't routinely even work in health care.

The suspected victim is prescribed two of the three and given a 28-day supply.

The dreaded thing is exposure to body fluids and there are many ways to get exposed to them. According to the CDC, it's a government sponsored agency, should you choose to believe them, even if you get stuck with a contaminated needle from a known positive HIV carrier, your chances of developing the disease are 0.3 per 1,000.

That's a lot better odds than what Vegas offers. And that should tell you something about human behavior and human reactions. But this should not be misconstrued for implying in any way that HIV is nonsense. Not in the least.

It's about understanding the risk and not about panic.

The medicines are not without side effects. In some cases worse than the feared disease.

The feared disease for central banks is so-called deflation, an economic event so the story goes central banks have little experience or luck treating. That might help explain the current panic. 

Who among us doesn't fear the unknown, all the more reason to believe they're flying bureaucratic stained pants upside down.

But no one knows for sure the difference between real deflation and just low prices. One might be troublesome, the other quite healthy.

Since the prices of all things don't deflate at the same time, at least they haven't so far, who gets to roll the dice, you who are out here on the firing line or a committee table full of bureaucrats?

If you track the history of fiat money you'll see the point. Forget Roman numerals. Etched on the base that truncated pyramid and on the front section of global central bank charters should be: In nonsense is strength.














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