OUTSIDE THE US DOLLAR

We've all heard about the lessor of two evils.

Well, with the US dollar it's more like the lessor of several evils. The US dollar index has chalked up a nice gain so far in 2013, rising more than three percent, but hardly all on it's own merits.
It's had a little help from its friends, the yen, the pound and the euro. All three of these currencies face some kind of turmoil, economic or political or both.

If you snooze you lose. And that's what politicians in the European Union have been doing for a while now. From the Cyprus crisis to Italian election uncertainties to high unemployment and heavy debt-plagued members, Euroland is looking more and more like an amusement park than a stable, confidence-instilling government.

Much of this trouble makes the US appear like a safer port in a sea of turmoil and turbulence. How much of this is factored into the jump in US equity prices remains to be debated.

An aside. We wrote about CAPE recently. So here is a link that should give you some ideas about how to play the CAPE outside the US.

WHAT I LEARNED ABOUT GRATITUDE FROM A COUNTRY SONG AND JOE BIDEN

Many of us aren't grateful enough.

We don't fully grasp the importance of gratitude. It's such an easy, simple take-it-for granted thing.

No, this isn't going to be another of those motivational pieces that makes you feel great for the next 30 seconds or until your IBS flares up again. This is much more serious.

Country songs, especially the slower ones, usually tell a story. Often a heart-ripping one.

A few years ago on the backroads of my more energetic youth I first learned about the magical power of gratitude. I'll try to make this brief and not too heavy or sad.

TENFOLD

Determined, persistent and never satisfied.

Sounds a lot like my old girlfriend's mother.  She was always pushing for something, a wedding, a glass of good Tuscan red, dinner at Maestro's. But it's not.

I spend some of my time working with professional fighters, some of the nicest, gentlest, smartest people in the world. Now I'm not the main trainer. Just one of the guys who helps out, mostly with the strength and conditioning, nutrition and coagulating.

What a lot of people don't understand is good fighters have to travel somewhat to get good sparring. The world doesn't always come to your gym. So there's quite a bit of helping each other out.

 The head trainer can't always accompany them. Sometimes you're getting more than one fighter ready for an upcoming bout. So you spend much time with them.

Bottom line they get to know you and you get to know them. Fighters, to borrow a line from a Randy Newman song, are people, too. When you go on the road for a fight there’s usually some downtime, not to mention the media and the weigh-in, before the fight. And all things pending, the tension.

Often it can turn into a kind of father-son or big-bro-little-bro relationship. Nobody likes to lose. Some of us hate to lose a big bunch, as in it freaking sucks, not to mention the pain. There's a lot of sweat, some disappointment and more than a few laughs. The winning validates it all.

And that brings me to my point. You go through a lot together. The word love gets vented too much these days, especially in sports. But that's what it becomes, a labor of love.Top to bottom I wouldn't trade my guys for anyone's.  And it never disturbs me when I hear someone else in the profession utter the same sentiment.

Determined, persistent and never satisfied. Sounds like characteristics of a good options or commodities trader. At least all the ones I know. 

Some no doubt will object, particularly to that never satisfied part. That's their choice. We all make them. But whatever you do or want to do, those three attributes expand way beyond the realm of professional fighting.

Determined, persistent and never give up. As structured it breaks the rule of parallelism in grammar. But so what. 

Treat them with care and respect and they'll repay you ten-fold.

THURSDAY READ

A REAL SELLOUT
http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/02/22/coca-colas-innocent-weapon-in-the-sugar-wars/?mod=WSJ_article_outbrain&obref=obinsite#

EURO'S FATE ONE VIEWPOINT
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-may-be-doomed-whether-cyprus-stays-or-goes-2013-03-21?link=MW_story_investinginsight

RECOVERY FOR REAL
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/

SPEND IT IF YOU GOT IT
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100579544

LIVE IT LIKE THEY LOST IT
http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2013/03/live-your-life-as-if-everyone-else-was-going-to-die-today/

A CLOSE AFFAIR
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/The-Truth-Behind-Cyprus2527s-Bank-Catastrophe/3/21/2013/id/48846

FOOTSTEPS

One less set of footsteps on the floor go the words of an old Jim Croce song.

Croce was singing about breaking up with his significant other, something consumers often do with significant brands.

In business jargon that translates into every retailers' worse nightmare, fewer footprints. Whether its bricks and mortar or e-retailers that means fewer footsteps as in customers.

Since customers buy things they affect other things like inventory, less turnover means more shelf time or inventory pile-ups, not what any merchant hoping to make a decent profit wants.

So how does one get rid of stuff? Giving it away is probably the easiest, unless you're my old girlfriend. That took some ingenious PR work.

If you've read Jonah Berger's new best seller, "Contagious. Why Things Catch On," you'll know what I mean.

 Retailers might call it something else, dropping prices. Falling prices squeeze profit margins. It can become a vicious fire sale. If you're a bargain hunter and you like the merchandise, a retailer's hard times can be your good ones.

A case in point is once hip Aeropostale, trading today a little over 13$ a share. About this time last year ARO changed hands around $22. That brings up the well-known but usual response: What happened?

To explain we've listed a few links below.

In the meantime, forget all those bogus Black Friday sales. Look for fewer footsteps.

http://www.investorguide.com/article/12368/aeropostale-aro-crashes-as-the-brand-continues-to-deflate/

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11871046/1/aeropostale-stock-falls-on-unusually-high-volume-aro.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YA

THE BIG YAWN

Some say Washington with all its histrionics has given Wall Street a case of the yawns.

The recent no-reaction to Bernanke's pledge of further inaction is just one example.

Collectively, at least in some ways, the market is smarter than many believe. The deal to roll back any serious cuts until September, that's the stuff yawns are made from. 

Now we know Fall is a beautiful time, hayrides, harvest moons and all that. Maybe by September we will all magically have forgotten the debt. The stock market, if Big Ben has anything to do with it, will provide the nepenthe. 

But there's an easier, shorter way to achieve this. Just have Mr. Bloomberg and his crack crew draw it up. Nothing larger than 16 ounces, however. Just one straw. And please don't forget the outta-sight, outta-mind hotdog.

Or the President could declare a national holiday while the minority speaker of the house gets another lift. The thought of that is pretty distracting.

Now that economists have declared they're biased, maybe we could get the MSM and politicos to publicly announced the same. That should be good for a 5,000 point, one-day rally in the ole DJIA. C'mon, Ben, use your influence. One more old Princeton try.

Correlation just got caused by bias confirmation. It'll sell, Ben. Trust me.

And forget the Gipper. The Obamer just tossed a big completion for the meat inspectors, union folk all. Just as the pink slips were hitting the airway a Hail Mary suddenly spun past. It was a perfect spiral.

Part of the reason: Scare Tactic 101, the prospect of tainted meat. But if memory serves, a lot of tainted meat made the rounds given a full complement of inspectors.
But the Obamer might have head faked himself out of position here. A serious outbreak of meat-induced ptomaine could easily be hung on those popular Repubs.

Speaking of the Repubs, their defense is more porous than my old girlfriend's face. A one-eyed QB with a missing thumb on his throwing hand could toss for 400 yards against them--in the first quarter.

Now on to price stability. No, that's not a punk rock band. But it could be.

NIGHTY-NIGHT

BEDTIME FUN READING
http://www.mossadams.com/mossadams/media/Documents/Publications/MA%20Alerts/Alert_1212_IRS-Provides-Guidance-on-Additional-Medicare-Tax.pdf

A SNOOZER
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/caterpillar-retail-sales-fedex-earnings-fdx/3/20/2013/id/48835

THEY WANT THE MONEY
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/taxwatch/2013/03/19/tax-tip-seniors-dont-forget-april-1/

CHALK UP ONE FOR THE MEAT BOYS
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/20/senate-approves-measure-to-avert-usda-meat-inspect?ref=hp

HERE'S ONE FOR JUST BEFORE YOU TURN OUT THE LIGHTS
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/032013-648752-food-stamps-turn-rhode-island-town-upside-down.htm?ven=benzingacp

TUESDAY READS

STEADY AS SHE DOES
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-me-worry-says-the-fed-2013-03-19?link=kiosk

WHAT NEXT?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/cyprus-rejects-deposit-levy-in-blow-to-european-bailout-plan.html

DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN TO YOU
http://www.inc.com/hollis-thomases/i-lost-thousands-of-dollars-dont-let-this-happen-to-you.html?cid=em01015week12d

BIG GAS, BIG MONEY
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/19/big-money-moving-natural-gas?ref=hp

BUREAUCRATS WILL BE BUREAUCRATS
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/french-minister-tasked-fighting-tax-fraud-resigns-having-secret-swiss-account

ELITE ATHLETES
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130318151634.htm

A NEVER ENDING QUESTION

It's a never ending question. 

Just whom does one believe?

Last week big banks JP Morgan and Goldman Sacs drew some criticism from the Federal Reserve over the capital plans of the two giants. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond also faced claims that he tried to cover up a $6.2 billion trading loss by misleading regulators and investors.

For weeks now, especially since the run-up in the stock market, just about all we've been hearing is how much better prepared for an economic downturn, should it occur, the big banking industry is.

Neil Barofsky is a name most likely unfamiliar to many.  A senior fellow at New York University, Barofsky is also a former special inspector general of the 2008-2009-born TARP or the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. The one used to supposedly right the USS Big Banking.

Barron's this past weekend ran a blurb, "Banking's Bitter Harvest," quoting Barofsky: "It's foolish to believe we're not on a path to another crisis."  Now for the skeptics, it's true Barofsky has a new best-selling book out, "Bailout." 

But nevertheless his point should be of interest. He says the big banks are even bigger today than before the bailout and still viewed as too big to fail.

 Part of restoring public confidence is assuring that the banks have learned their lesson and are more financially sound for their ordeal. In many ways it's tied to the wealth effect the MSM pushes. 

Take a look at this from The Big Picture.
http://t.ritholtz.com/bigpicture/#!/entry/discuss-customers-who-distrust-their-banks,5147ab21d7fc7b5670738c90

Or here.
http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/03/the-least-trusted-banks-in-america/

THE NANNY STATE CONTINUES TO GROW

A recent article about the explosion of Americans on food stamps, a fact many believe contributes to escalating food prices, quickly deteriorated in the comments section to a racial discussion.

And some people wonder why websites and even some in MSM are either considering or are blocking their comments sections. Too often the comments completely sidestep the issue and sink into ad hominid. 

Dumb is what we say. Not too different from pretending that painful rock in your brogans ain't there.

The nanny state of which food stamps is only a part continues to grow. Think for a second of it as home prices or tech stocks or swamp land in the 1920s in Florida, one great big giant bubble.  Bubbles have a way of getting pricked.

Discourse about how much is too much is futile. Like the federal deficit, we're long past that point. If you think it's painful now, just wait around. The paucity of real leadership in the world today is frightening.

If you need a clear example, see Cyprus. In the meantime here is a further insight into the growing nanny state. http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/welfare-costs-rapidly-escalating-everywhere.html

Make the mistake that the US is different if you want.  Truth is welfare has become the proverbial room full of measles.