Wednesday, April 17, 2013
WEDNESDAY READS
BUNDESBANK PRESIDENT INTERVIEW TODAY
http://blogs.wsj.com/eurocrisis/2013/04/17/jens-weidmann-qa/?KEYWORDS=Bundesbank+president
CONSIDER THE SOURCE
http://www.money.cnn.com/2013/04/17/news/economy/china-green-energy/index.html?iid=SF_BN_LN
CYPRUS SAGA CONTINUES
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/17/cyprus-bailout-vote-idUSL5N0D42R020130417
EARNINGS WATCH
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/u-s-stock-index-futures-drop-yahoo-sinks-on-forecast.html
LEFT VERSUS RIGHT FILM
http://www.newsmax.com/US/hating-breitbart-film-release/2013/04/17/id/499953
LEFF HAND RIGHT SYNDROME
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/04/great-graphic-another-look-at-emu.html
MORE FED TALK
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-plosser-wants-to-start-towards-qe-exit-2013-04-16?dist=lbeforebell
PINCHING THE POKE AT PROCTER
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324010704578418361635041842.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
GOLD AS A HEDGE
Too many believe that gold is a hedge against inflation.
And it is but only indirectly. Gold is a hedge against central bank and government incompetence.
"I'm from the government and I'm here to help you." Besides "I promise to faithfully...," there's probably few more dangerous words around.
Notice in the last few days how often the 1300 level's been mentioned in MSM. The parrots are in good cackling order. Forget crackers. What these folks really want is restitution.
In this case restitution of their alleged reputation as financial seers. Something with gold hanging on above 1600 was, like the words of an old Simon and Garfunkle tune, slip, sliding away.
If you understand the definiton of concerted, you're starting to get it. This is little more than a not-so-subtle concerted effort to pour more oil on the printing presses--the usual bureuacrat soultion to WTF's happening here?
Gun control is a hot button issue these days. But what about Ph.d-control? The damage these folks can wreak, to use a good economic term, is incalculable. Maybe we should label it, aggregate damage, so nobody would understand.
The one thing you need to understand--and soon if you don't already--is nobody's safe.
And now you know what gold is. So keep your construction-site hard helmet close at hand.
11
And it is but only indirectly. Gold is a hedge against central bank and government incompetence.
"I'm from the government and I'm here to help you." Besides "I promise to faithfully...," there's probably few more dangerous words around.
Notice in the last few days how often the 1300 level's been mentioned in MSM. The parrots are in good cackling order. Forget crackers. What these folks really want is restitution.
In this case restitution of their alleged reputation as financial seers. Something with gold hanging on above 1600 was, like the words of an old Simon and Garfunkle tune, slip, sliding away.
If you understand the definiton of concerted, you're starting to get it. This is little more than a not-so-subtle concerted effort to pour more oil on the printing presses--the usual bureuacrat soultion to WTF's happening here?
Gun control is a hot button issue these days. But what about Ph.d-control? The damage these folks can wreak, to use a good economic term, is incalculable. Maybe we should label it, aggregate damage, so nobody would understand.
The one thing you need to understand--and soon if you don't already--is nobody's safe.
And now you know what gold is. So keep your construction-site hard helmet close at hand.
11
THEY NEED YOUR TEARS
"As a result, people are getting increasingly creative at skirting controls."
The above quote could be a segue into a discussion about tax evasion or tax avoidance, only one of which many seemingly forget is illegal--evasion.
It's a story from today's WSJ about what happens when bureaucrats debase a currency and the people lose faith in their government. It's a story for those who believe it can never or won't ever happen here. See Boston marathon.
It's a story for the most part being crowded out by other, seemingly more pressing events. It's a story about Argentina, a nation more than a little familiar with inflation, currency messes and incompetent governments. See history.
It's also a story about government statistical legerdemain every government in existence has and will continue to practice until people stand up to them. See inflation rate.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324010704578418662965631052.html?KEYWORDS=ARGENTINA
The above quote could be a segue into a discussion about tax evasion or tax avoidance, only one of which many seemingly forget is illegal--evasion.
It's a story from today's WSJ about what happens when bureaucrats debase a currency and the people lose faith in their government. It's a story for those who believe it can never or won't ever happen here. See Boston marathon.
It's a story for the most part being crowded out by other, seemingly more pressing events. It's a story about Argentina, a nation more than a little familiar with inflation, currency messes and incompetent governments. See history.
It's also a story about government statistical legerdemain every government in existence has and will continue to practice until people stand up to them. See inflation rate.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324010704578418662965631052.html?KEYWORDS=ARGENTINA
TUESDAY READS
NO SURPRISE
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/16/autos/aaa-driving-costs/index.html
WHAT'S NEW
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324345804578424480045988240.html?mod=ITP_pageone_1
GOLDMAN SACHS REPORTS
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/04/16/goldmans-investments-in-companies-pay-off/
THE EU PICTURE
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/16/eurozone-crisis-growth-markets-oil-price
SACRED NO MORE
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/4/15/public-pension-plans-to-share-the-pain.html
MARKETS DOWN http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/15/investing/world-markets/index.html?iid=s_mpm
UP OVERNIGHT
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-push-higher-as-gold-gains-2013-04-16?dist=lbeforebell
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/16/autos/aaa-driving-costs/index.html
WHAT'S NEW
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324345804578424480045988240.html?mod=ITP_pageone_1
GOLDMAN SACHS REPORTS
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/04/16/goldmans-investments-in-companies-pay-off/
THE EU PICTURE
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/16/eurozone-crisis-growth-markets-oil-price
SACRED NO MORE
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/4/15/public-pension-plans-to-share-the-pain.html
MARKETS DOWN http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/15/investing/world-markets/index.html?iid=s_mpm
UP OVERNIGHT
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-push-higher-as-gold-gains-2013-04-16?dist=lbeforebell
Monday, April 15, 2013
GOLDMAN SACHS SACKS GOLD
Gold prices drop dramatically, down more than $100 to a two-year low.
TIPS sell off. Big restaurant chain McDonalds announces concern about future earnings, slowing consumer spending world-wide and the housing scene looks funkier than many of the bull market cheerleaders expected.
Forget a rainy night in Georgia. If this keeps up many investors will soon feel like it's raining all over the world. And it well may soon be if earnings disappoint.
Then there's the EU, China and Japan. It's a mixed-up world. US bureaucrats first want Japanese bureaucrats to inflate then warn not to over do it. And whatever happened to tiny Cyprus?
One Wall Street wag at Business Insider celebrated gold's fall from precious metal grace, claiming it and the equity rally are a sign Bernanke and his band of bureaucrats actually have an idea of what their doing. He's probably a closet Cubs fan.
Just today one member of the FOMC announced he felt good about the prospect of easing up on the bond-buying pedal by the end of the year. Let's hear it for more lumber trucks chugging around the old neighborhood.
A longtime neighbor just last week told me lately he's seeing more chipmunks scurrying around his and a neighbor's backyard. As far as I know he doesn't drink or smoke.
The truth is Helicopter Ben and his motley crew are as clueless as those up on the Hill. Getting it right doesn't ramp up deflation concerns and send the stock market down 266 points, it's worst day in five months. Look for the next set of those recently released job numbers to be revised upwards big time.
Central banks have been selling and hedge funds net long the yellow stuff. There's an old saw in medicine: treat the patient, not a lab number. Bernanke and his crowd want the jobless rate well below 7%, a no-can-do certainty with gold above $1,600.
Too much talk in the media about easy money ramping up inflation. It was beginning to gain traction.
Then there's that tiny island of Cyprus. Caught in a bureaucratic squeeze, central bankers there suddenly threaten to unload what is most likely it's officially bloated gold holdings. More gold than that of either Spain or France. Meanwhile, no one really knows how much gold is held by whom.
Enter Goldman Sachs, the huge investment banking firm with more ties to central banks and central bankers than the annual economic confab at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Check out the names Dudley, Draghi and Carney. If you need some help click on the link below.
On April 10th Goldman recommended dumping commodities, singling out the recent weakness in gold. The release came just a few days after hedge funds and investors purchased one of the dips.
If you're sniffing manipulation, you're getting warm. Goldman Sachs has another name in many circles, Government Sachs.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30/goldman-sachs-connections-with-central-banks-reach-ever-deeper-after-hire.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30/goldman-sachs-connections-with-central-banks-reach-ever-deeper-after-hire.html
TIPS sell off. Big restaurant chain McDonalds announces concern about future earnings, slowing consumer spending world-wide and the housing scene looks funkier than many of the bull market cheerleaders expected.
Forget a rainy night in Georgia. If this keeps up many investors will soon feel like it's raining all over the world. And it well may soon be if earnings disappoint.
Then there's the EU, China and Japan. It's a mixed-up world. US bureaucrats first want Japanese bureaucrats to inflate then warn not to over do it. And whatever happened to tiny Cyprus?
One Wall Street wag at Business Insider celebrated gold's fall from precious metal grace, claiming it and the equity rally are a sign Bernanke and his band of bureaucrats actually have an idea of what their doing. He's probably a closet Cubs fan.
Just today one member of the FOMC announced he felt good about the prospect of easing up on the bond-buying pedal by the end of the year. Let's hear it for more lumber trucks chugging around the old neighborhood.
A longtime neighbor just last week told me lately he's seeing more chipmunks scurrying around his and a neighbor's backyard. As far as I know he doesn't drink or smoke.
The truth is Helicopter Ben and his motley crew are as clueless as those up on the Hill. Getting it right doesn't ramp up deflation concerns and send the stock market down 266 points, it's worst day in five months. Look for the next set of those recently released job numbers to be revised upwards big time.
Central banks have been selling and hedge funds net long the yellow stuff. There's an old saw in medicine: treat the patient, not a lab number. Bernanke and his crowd want the jobless rate well below 7%, a no-can-do certainty with gold above $1,600.
Too much talk in the media about easy money ramping up inflation. It was beginning to gain traction.
Then there's that tiny island of Cyprus. Caught in a bureaucratic squeeze, central bankers there suddenly threaten to unload what is most likely it's officially bloated gold holdings. More gold than that of either Spain or France. Meanwhile, no one really knows how much gold is held by whom.
Enter Goldman Sachs, the huge investment banking firm with more ties to central banks and central bankers than the annual economic confab at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Check out the names Dudley, Draghi and Carney. If you need some help click on the link below.
On April 10th Goldman recommended dumping commodities, singling out the recent weakness in gold. The release came just a few days after hedge funds and investors purchased one of the dips.
If you're sniffing manipulation, you're getting warm. Goldman Sachs has another name in many circles, Government Sachs.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30/goldman-sachs-connections-with-central-banks-reach-ever-deeper-after-hire.html
BRIEFS
The world's largest restaurant chain's stock might be making record highs but concerns about declining customer traffic continue at McDonalds, according to the WSJ.
Set to announce first quarter earnings this Friday, the Big Mac folks have switched to a value approach to counteract what the company sees as "lackluster consumer spending world-wide."
Cost-conscious spending and value are in and higher-priced menu items out at least for now, tempering the company's outlook for 2013 earnings. Investors often use Big Mac as an economic bellwether, a label once given many years ago to GM, to gauge the global economy.
*****
Department store chain JC Penny apparently started the penny-pinching the moment now ousted CEO Ron Johnson jumped aboard. For years the firm employed around 150,000 full and part-time workers. Along came Johnson and after just one year, according one report, that number dropped to roughly 116,000.
That's nearly a 25% reduction in the workforce. Some of those let go we're designers for a women's sales line that generated a billion dollars a year that was also axed. Sales dropped 25% during Johnson's and his former Apple compatriots' reign.
****
Headline in today's WSJ: "U.S. Expanding Limits of Insider-Trade Probes."
It's a story about the KMPG LLP partner who reportedly passed along inside data to an acquaintance who profited. Investigators photographed the two men supposedly exchanging the goodies. The story than references some so-called legal experts suggesting this is a sign of how far regulators will go to "crack down on illegal stock tips."
This guy at the largest is pocket change.
Such is for the public's benefit. Regulators and the MSM can then say: "See we're are doing something." The KMPG guy in question is in California. Most of the regulators are in Washington.
With a short trip up the Hill to Congress they'll find a lot of insider tipping and they can save a lot of film and taxpayer bucks.
What this guy did members of Congress do all the time and on a much larger scale. He's probably going to jail. Congress people just get rich.
Level playing fields are like trash and beauty.
****
Set to announce first quarter earnings this Friday, the Big Mac folks have switched to a value approach to counteract what the company sees as "lackluster consumer spending world-wide."
Cost-conscious spending and value are in and higher-priced menu items out at least for now, tempering the company's outlook for 2013 earnings. Investors often use Big Mac as an economic bellwether, a label once given many years ago to GM, to gauge the global economy.
*****
Department store chain JC Penny apparently started the penny-pinching the moment now ousted CEO Ron Johnson jumped aboard. For years the firm employed around 150,000 full and part-time workers. Along came Johnson and after just one year, according one report, that number dropped to roughly 116,000.
That's nearly a 25% reduction in the workforce. Some of those let go we're designers for a women's sales line that generated a billion dollars a year that was also axed. Sales dropped 25% during Johnson's and his former Apple compatriots' reign.
****
Headline in today's WSJ: "U.S. Expanding Limits of Insider-Trade Probes."
It's a story about the KMPG LLP partner who reportedly passed along inside data to an acquaintance who profited. Investigators photographed the two men supposedly exchanging the goodies. The story than references some so-called legal experts suggesting this is a sign of how far regulators will go to "crack down on illegal stock tips."
This guy at the largest is pocket change.
Such is for the public's benefit. Regulators and the MSM can then say: "See we're are doing something." The KMPG guy in question is in California. Most of the regulators are in Washington.
With a short trip up the Hill to Congress they'll find a lot of insider tipping and they can save a lot of film and taxpayer bucks.
What this guy did members of Congress do all the time and on a much larger scale. He's probably going to jail. Congress people just get rich.
Level playing fields are like trash and beauty.
****
MONDAY READS
WHAT'S NEXT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/15/poland-rates-idUSL5N0D20PG20130415
SLOWDOWN IN CHINESE ECONOMY
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/14/news/economy/china-gdp/index.html
THE FED DOVES
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/13/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE93C0CL20130413
WEEKEND DEVELOPMENTS THAT MIGHT IMPACT MARKETS MONDAY
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/04/two-weekend-developments.html#more
THREE BUBBLES TO WATCH
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-09/the-scary-risks-of-safety-bubble-up.html
FOLLOW THE MONEY TO A TOP?
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/12/investing/stocks-rally-inflow/index.html
TERRITORY UNSUSTAINABLE
http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/etfs/articles/Health-Care-Consumer-and-Utilities-Sectors/4/12/2013/id/4924
MEDIA CHANGE COMING
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/The-Next-Step-in-the-Evolution/4/12/2013/id/49175
GOLD DOWN AGAIN
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-falls-sharply-copper-hit-after-china-data-2013-04-15
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/15/poland-rates-idUSL5N0D20PG20130415
SLOWDOWN IN CHINESE ECONOMY
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/14/news/economy/china-gdp/index.html
THE FED DOVES
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/13/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE93C0CL20130413
WEEKEND DEVELOPMENTS THAT MIGHT IMPACT MARKETS MONDAY
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/04/two-weekend-developments.html#more
THREE BUBBLES TO WATCH
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-09/the-scary-risks-of-safety-bubble-up.html
FOLLOW THE MONEY TO A TOP?
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/12/investing/stocks-rally-inflow/index.html
TERRITORY UNSUSTAINABLE
http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/etfs/articles/Health-Care-Consumer-and-Utilities-Sectors/4/12/2013/id/4924
MEDIA CHANGE COMING
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/The-Next-Step-in-the-Evolution/4/12/2013/id/49175
GOLD DOWN AGAIN
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-falls-sharply-copper-hit-after-china-data-2013-04-15
Sunday, April 14, 2013
SNIFFING AROUND
Sniff were it smells the worst.
And the odor in closed end muni-bonds funds is growing, especially for closed end funds that employ some leverage in their efforts to ramp up yield.
Bad smells usually indicate some decay. Fear about things like too much leverage, government interference and interest rate changes are just a few scaring muni bond investors away from these funds.
President Obama has mentioned more than once he'd like to cap the tax-free benefits of municipal bonds. It shouldn't surprise; that's what class-warfare generals do. And we're not saying it won't happen.
But many of these states are essentially bankrupt. With the exception of most ideas from bureaucrats and policoes, nothing occurs in a complete vacuum, something these folks never seem to understand.
Fewer buyers could mean less revenue and higher interest rates for state and municipal sellers. Few things are foreseen. In the meantime, here's an article to help you decide whether you want to start sniffing.
COMMERCE WARS
Talk about currency and trade wars has ramped up since Japan kicked off it new QE program,
Some of this in time may prove noteworthy.
But there's another, more subtle war going on closer to home. In the past few weeks three states, Mississippi, Maine and Texas orchestrated invitations to gun manufacturers who ply their trade in those blue, PC-righteous, eastern seaboard states.
Two other states, Arkansas and Florida, recently extended an offer to other gun manufacturers in Connecticut.
The message is loud and clear: "C-mon down!" Texas Governor Rick Perry is the latest to roll out the welcome mat. Smith and Wesson is in Connecticut, the so-called Constitution State, the same state that pilloried one of its longstanding, local manufacturers a few years ago for wanting to move to avoid the state's oppressive tax rates.
Politician there, including the former attorney general, a wealthy guy who now represents Connecticut as a member of the good old boys club of the US senate, resorted to severe name calling, accusing the company of being a traitor, un-American because the firm proposed a move to Bermuda..
How un-American is it to move to another state? Just maybe we're going to find out.
If gun store owners and every gun-purchasing fan of S&W sent e-mails and made pubic announcements that they will no longer buy S&W products until they leave Connecticut, gun owners and the rest of us might regain some of the power these despots have usurped over the years.
To clear the record we don't belongs to the NRA and never have. This isn't about the NRA. It's about wealthy, elitists, eastern seaboard bullies like Mayor Bloomberg forcing their beliefs and so-called values on the rest of us. It's not about race, creed or religion. It's about power. Raw, ugly power.
The longer you wait to make a stand the less power you'll have when that day comes to a venue near you.
http://news.yahoo.com/texas-governor-connecticut-gun-maker-come-down-213053466.html
Some of this in time may prove noteworthy.
But there's another, more subtle war going on closer to home. In the past few weeks three states, Mississippi, Maine and Texas orchestrated invitations to gun manufacturers who ply their trade in those blue, PC-righteous, eastern seaboard states.
Two other states, Arkansas and Florida, recently extended an offer to other gun manufacturers in Connecticut.
The message is loud and clear: "C-mon down!" Texas Governor Rick Perry is the latest to roll out the welcome mat. Smith and Wesson is in Connecticut, the so-called Constitution State, the same state that pilloried one of its longstanding, local manufacturers a few years ago for wanting to move to avoid the state's oppressive tax rates.
Politician there, including the former attorney general, a wealthy guy who now represents Connecticut as a member of the good old boys club of the US senate, resorted to severe name calling, accusing the company of being a traitor, un-American because the firm proposed a move to Bermuda..
How un-American is it to move to another state? Just maybe we're going to find out.
If gun store owners and every gun-purchasing fan of S&W sent e-mails and made pubic announcements that they will no longer buy S&W products until they leave Connecticut, gun owners and the rest of us might regain some of the power these despots have usurped over the years.
To clear the record we don't belongs to the NRA and never have. This isn't about the NRA. It's about wealthy, elitists, eastern seaboard bullies like Mayor Bloomberg forcing their beliefs and so-called values on the rest of us. It's not about race, creed or religion. It's about power. Raw, ugly power.
The longer you wait to make a stand the less power you'll have when that day comes to a venue near you.
http://news.yahoo.com/texas-governor-connecticut-gun-maker-come-down-213053466.html
Saturday, April 13, 2013
THE PARTY CONTINUES
What's a high unemployment figure?
That all depends on where you reside. In places like Spain and France double digit figures are worrisome.
In another part of the EU, up north, 7.7% is getting up there, a figure the Netherlands reportedly breached in February where, according to a recent WSJ piece, unemployment has been steadily rising for the last two years.
The Netherlands it seems late last year reclined into another recession for the third time in four years. Recessions are the worst nightmare for austerity pushers. But they're best buddies of the kick-the-can crowd.
The EU's budget guidelines call for keeping deficits within 3% of GDP for 2013, a figure Dutch officials recently admitted they will miss, forecasting a figure closer to 3.3%. Instead officials rolled out a plan with $4.5 billion in new cuts for 2014 when the deficit is expected to grow to 3.4% of GDP.
In the meantime the government announced, it's adopting a wait-and-see mode to see if the cuts will be necessary. The government hopes improving exports will make the cuts unnecessary.
Along the way they're planning to cut the duration of unemployment benefits by one month every quarter in 2016 and leaving the amount received unchanged. Initially they had planned to cut the duration from three to two years and lower the amount people receive in the second year.
Consumer sentiment continues to decline and austerity pushers appear to be weakening in face of rising public pressure. To quote Prime Minister Mark Rutte: 'We are taking a breather."
Given that since the crisis hit this has pretty much been a north versus south dilemma from the beginning, look for a lot more breathers in the future. No bureaucrat wants to sing those famous, much needed words of an old Willie Nelson tune:
"Turn out the lights. The party's over. They say all good things must end."
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