Tuesday, August 19, 2014

JACKSON HOLE QUIJA BOARDS

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t. man hatter
Anyone who doesn't see through the glass darkly needs to look several more times.

Concern about deflation--especially in the European Union--has created hoards of easy money. Borrowing costs in Italy and Spain on 10-year debt are below their pre-crisis levels.

Despite a host of geopolitical nonsense around the globe, investors continue to pile into these riskier peripheral assets. There was even a mild MSM led celebration about Spain's economic recovery being underway. Now, however, that looks like just so much wishful thinking.


Here's a quote from http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/08/recovery-mirage-in-spain-dissipates.html that tells the real story about that fake recovery.

Spain has been living on borrowed time for years, accumulating a huge debt to maintain their level of consumption and investment-their standards of living. Between 2002 and 2007, Spain was amassing a growing external deficit, as more and sell less abroad (exports) and bought more (imports), bringing its foreign debt grew.

This imbalance is reflected in a very specific indicator, the current account deficit, which in 2007 reached a record high close to 10% of GDP. That is, the entire country that year said external financing close to 100 billion euros to cover their consumption and investment.

The fact that the trade deficit has risen again after the minimum economic rebound in recent quarters is a sign of weakness, because it demonstrates the strong dependence Spain still external financing to maintain their level of consumption and investment.

Don't be disturbed by the broken English. As the article, if you care to read it, points out this is a translation from Spanish to English.

Some of this celebration centered on a sick sort of pride like my kid is the smartest kid in the dumbest row of his class at school. Think U.S.economy here versus the rest of the world. Two-year U.S. Treasuries yield 40 basis points.

If that's investors' idea of a flight to safety, as a colleague recently put it, it's more like bond bungee jumping. Troubles don't happen often but when they do.....

Later this week those central bank oracles, Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole, will ease most of our concerns by pretending that they know what's going on and have their macro and micro thumbs firmly plastered on their economic Ouija boards.

Both these bureaucrats want one thing: investors to continue ramping up their appetite for risk and yield. It's a sort of please-take-more-risk kicking-the-can pandering of the worse sort. 

Perhaps the ugliest nightmare of bureaucrats like Draghi and Yellen is people who are starting to get it, the last people these quasi- politicians want to ever get it, everyday, middle class people.

Here's a quote from letters to the editor in today's Wall Street Journal. It's a bad news, good news quote.

Europe's economic malaise and youth underemployment are caused by a much bigger force here than the cost of labor protections ("Young, European and Broke," page one, Aug. 9). The real driver is Europe's ever-expanding social welfare state and the increasing tax load it demands from the populace. Europeans have finally burdened themselves sufficiently to depress investment and innovation so much that maintaining economic stability is all but impossible and expansion is just about out of the question. 


As of late, America too has embraced this notion and followed Europe's lead. Well, it isn't all bad. At least they are illuminating the road ahead for us so we know where we're going.
Ken Ratkovich

If you got an idea where we're headed and you want to do that most politically sacrilegious thing, according to the elitists pushing those global buttons, and protect you and yours and make some money, money they never intended you to have, keep asking questions and demanding answers. 

And keep reading. And by all means don't let the MSM apologists disparage you from owning hard assets like gold.
 


Monday, August 18, 2014

WRONG AGAIN

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BR054A_JUNK_G_20140817184815.jpg

We recently published a chart (What The Market Offers) showing just how long retail investors have been wrong when it comes to investing.

Well, despite the MSM ballyhoo about a current rotation, supposedly following the one that never happened earlier this year, it looks as if retailers are setting themselves up for being wrong again.

This week's issue of Barron's featured an article about a Great Rotation that didn't happen but another one that seems to be in full swing

But there's a lot more going on here than investors exiting stocks and going into bonds. A closer look at what's driving the flows in each category points to a very different Great Rotation -- for stocks, out of active funds and into passive ones, and for bonds, out of the safe and into the unknown.

According the article, "July was the third consecutive month in which investors pulled money out of U.S. equity" funds and sent that green stuff to what is perceived by them as safer haunts or so-called index funds.

To use the jargon of the Street this money is flowing from active management to passive management, one of the reasons being how poorly active engagement has done during this crazy year and that active usually takes a greater bite from investor pocketbooks.

Well, spare you the large numbers just suffice it to say they are big especially if you happen to be one of the bigger fund mangers like Vanguard or Fidelity. Now most of us know about the low-interest rate, yield-starved scenario of recent months and how investors have crawled farther out on the risk limb to try to compensate.
   
Fidelity better known for active management has seen large outflow while Vanguard one of the stalwarts in passive or index management has seen huge inflow. Recall that John Bogle the founder of Vanguard is a big advocate of index investing. But there's another story here.

Over in the bond market both active and passive funds have seen huge inflows. This money, per Barron's, is not flowing into traditional bonds funds any longer, but some new puppies on the Street geared toward eliminating interest rate risk. The new players are so-called "unconstrained, flexible, go any-where" funds.

If that sounds a bit more risky you might be on to something. And again, according to Barron's, most of these funds are run by new managers who have never experienced volatile interest rates scenarios.

And today's Wall Street Journal ran a story about how big money is now flowing back into these lower-rates or junk bonds.

Large institutions are snapping up U.S. junk bonds, taking advantage of a price slide triggered by an exodus of individual investors. 

Many big money mangers say they remain bullish on these risky corporate bonds despite concerns that the market is overheated and worries that geopolitical unrest could fuel a rush to safer assets. 

Here's a quote from the WSJ piece from a high-yield manager that summarizes the matter:

Investors who panic in these selloffs--it's the wrong thing to do...."
t.man hatter


Friday, August 15, 2014

SADDLE UP


As we mentioned in "UPCOMING WEEK" the Fed holds its annual Jackson Hole Symposium this week all rip and raring to go with a fancy title, too: "Reevaluating Labor Market  Dynamics."

 The economic guessing is about to run amok. What will Fed Chair Janet Yellen say, more dovish gibberish or something traders can cut a few decent trades off? Or will she pull the hood off the bird of prey and unleash some hawkish language to the surprise of nearly everyone?

 Well, we probably got a little carried away there. So don't bet on it.

And what will prove the more meaningful of the two, the FOMC minutes from July 30 or the palaver at Jackson Hole?

What we do know is the Fed has a plan. And that's what scares the hell out of us.
t. man hatter

 

OUR VIEW

 
If all those anti-pipeline protestors in Boston don't want natural gas, folks in Texas sure do.

The Texas region will turn almost exclusively to natural gas to meet the growth in demand for     electricity over the next 25 years, according to a government analysis.

Natural gas is Texas’ most widely used fuel for electricity generation now, though coal is a close second. Nuclear power and renewables — mostly wind — generate far less than either of the fossil fuels, according to numbers crunched by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The balance of power will shift even further  through 2040 as gas-fired generation rises by 81 million megawatt hours and accounts for most of the growth in the Texas Reliability Entity — a federally approved electricity monitoring region  that includes most of the Texas grid.

Other forms of power generation are expected to remain virtually flat through 2040, according to the report.

Natural gas-fueled electricity will begin become significantly more common than coal generation after 2016, as cheap sources of gas from the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford shales, coupled with the relatively high cost of building new coal plants, make gas a more attractive option. 

The region’s electricity demand is expected to grow by 0.9 percent each year, according to the Energy Information Administration, an Energy Department agency.

A story in one of the scribes today pointed out that China is "believed to hold the world's largest recoverable shale resources..." It goes on to say the "suggestion that the world is anywhere close to being independent of oil (hydrocarbons) is ridiculous. It's going to be a long while before we are all driving Teslas or BMW i8s."

This is just one of many issues that divide this a nation, something we believe is extremely healthy, notwithstanding all the MSM blabber.The former administration divided this nation deeply, a state many feel that has only been exceeded by the current Washington crowd.

If, for example, this administration's foreign policy waffled anymore it's be on the menu at IHop

Again, we say this is healthy, transparent; people need to know who their enemies are. Bring it out in the open. If the good people of Boston don't want more pipelines, we say great. Forget cake. Let them freeze; they have a right to make that choice. 

They have a right to follow their elected inept leaders. This is not endemic to the U.S. Look around the world today and find a continent where there's no fighting going on. 

And what's happening in Missouri is another example. It's not about what MSM would have you believe, race. It's about human beings and turning your local police departments into military units. We'd say quasi-military, but that would be gilding the damn lily.

Someone posted a picture on the Internet of a Gulf War veteran in his military garb next to a local police department swat team member with the caption that pointed out the swat guy had more armor on than a US soldier at war. If that sounds normal to you, perhaps you need to move to Missouri.

It's time. It's push back time against all this phony political correctness that's been dogging this nation for the last generation or so. People are up to their uvulas with it all and it has nothing to do with all the MSM lies about race, religion and the like.

It's about the interminable regulations that have decimated the middle class and now threaten worse.

It's decision time. And you're going to have to decide. The late JFK was fond of quoting Dante and his passage about hell's hottest places being preserved for those who keep their neutrality during a crisis.

Phony attempts to rule this country via abusive executive, judicial or legislative powers is over as soon as you decide to declare it over.

That's our view. We hope you know yours.



 








UPCOMING WEEK

It was a mixed week in the market with the DJIA down 60 to close at 16,662, the S&P 500 off a fraction to 1,955.06 from 1.955.18 and the Nasdaq up 12 at 3,987. Bond yields dropped again in a flight to safety and oil, of course, rallied on the Ukrainian news.

Five sectors were up and three were down with Energy, Utilities, Health Care, Materials and Consumer Staples up. Next week is another busy one with data about housing, the CPI and FOMC minutes from three weeks ago to go along with the start of the Fed's annual Jackson Hole meetings.

Monday, August 18

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug) - expected 53, prior 53
11:00 Fed purchasing $950m-$1.15b bonds in 22 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $29b 3-month bills and $25b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 CNY July Property Prices
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance

Earnings

After:
Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Tuesday, August 19

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Consumer Price Index YoY (Jul) - expected 2.0%, prior 2.1%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY - exp 1.9%, prior 1.9%
08:30 Housing Starts (Jul) - exp 970K, prior 893K
08:30 Building Permits - exp 1000K, prior 973K
11:00 Fed to purchase $250m-$350m notes in 11-19 year range
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills, $25b 52-week bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

03:00 NZD RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectations
08:30 GBP CPI

Earnings

Before:
Home Depot (HD)
Dick's Sportings Goods (DKS)
Medtronic (MDT)
TJX (TJX)

Wednesday, August 20

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Apps
2:00 FOMC Minutes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

AUD RBA's Stevens delivers semi-annual testimony
JPY Trade Balance
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index
06:00 EUR German PPI
08:30 GBP BoE Minutes

Earnings

Before:
Target (TGT)
PetSmart (PETM)
Hain Celestial (HAIN)
Madison Square Garden (MSG)

After:
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
L Brands (L)

Lowe's (LOW)
Staples (SPLS)
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

Thursday, August 21

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - exp. 300k, prior 311k
08:30 Continuing Claims - prior 2544k
10:00 Philly Fed - exp 20.0, prior 23.9
10:00 Existing Home Sales - exp 5.00M, prior 5.04M
10:00 Leading Index - exp 0.6%, prior 0.3%
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.05b-$2.5b notes in 7 to 10-year range

Fedspeak

Jackson Hole Fed symposium begins

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

Japan Investors Purchases of Foreign Stocks/Bonds
01:00 AUD Consumer Confidence Index
01:35 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Aug prelim)
01:45 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Aug prelim)
06:00 CHF Trade Balance
07:00 EUR France Manufacturing PMI (Aug prelim)
07:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug prelim)
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Aug prelim)
08:30 GBP Retail Sales
08:30 GBP Public Budget
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Aug advance)

Earnings

After:
Gap (GPS)
Ross Stores (ROST)

Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Aeropostale (ARO)

Friday, August 22

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

No major reports scheduled

Fedspeak

Jackson Hole Fed symposium begins

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

12:30 CAD CPI

Earnings

No major earnings scheduled

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

EVERY ACTION

https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRPTC5oHEpYicT75e9v6nXA__aPu-UrEfThzZMuJHMiQKjGEvkILiquidity is as liquidity does.

And in markets few things are more important than the appearance of adequate liquidity. Isn't that what Fed Chair Janet Yellen's recent squealing about invoking exit fees on money markets was all about?

Well, a story in the Financial Times today, "Repo fails spark fears of risk to US Treasuries," calls attention to what could be another liquidity squeeze waiting in the wings to happen.

US Treasury bonds are  supposed to be some of the easiest to buy and sell, yet all is not well in one of the world's biggest and most liquid markets. 

The smooth functioning of the $12tn US Treasury market depends on the health of its underlyoing machinery, in particular the repurchase, or "repo," market. This is where government securities are regularly lent out and borrowed between various investors and dealers.

These are short term transactions that help investors sell bonds when they want to change directions as in the face of suspected rising interest rates. In other words, it about liquidity. The whole system depends on, guess, paying the piper or returning your securities on time.

Something called a failure happens when a borrowed security is not returned on time and causes settlement problems across the entire "repo" landscape. As is usually the case since these securities are lent out more than once there is more than just borrower and lender involved here. 

Think of a daisy chain of borrows, banks and dealers. A couple of weak links and you're starting to get the picture. Of late, according the FT article, there's been a big jump in the fail rate. Per Federal Reserve data the peak in failures happened back in 2011.

Back in 2011 interest rates were declining not rising. Now even though there is what the Times calls subdued activity in this market, failures are on the rise. That brings up an ugly concern should interest rates move up higher or faster than anticipated.

As one market observer quoted by the Times puts it: "If the market is as liquid as everyone says it it, then why did we have this sudden burst of fails?"  That sudden burst, the Times notes, since records have been kept occurred since the beginning of this June when "seven of the 10 largest fail-to-deliver days" hit the market.

So far none of the fails have come from dealers, but if that should occur it could signal look out below. Short-term debt plays a key role in keeping the current financial system afloat. It has to do with collateral. One thing adding to the problem is recent regulations. Fewer players now want to be a part of  the daisy chain owing to the added costs of playing. 

So much for every action evoking a reaction. 
t. man hatter



THE PERFECT CALM

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 t. man hatter
The weaker the oil price gets the more you should become a buyer.

The concerns pushing oil prices lower are more economic than geopolitical at the moment. No big surprise here. Sending Brent crude, the world benchmark for crude oil, to a 13 month low recently during intraday trading makes the news a bit more tantalizing, giving headline writers something to get a grasp on.

Economic pundits are scrambling to reconfigure their demand projections, extrapolating from a weaker than expected second quarter growth number around the world. Factor in Japan, Europe and the Russian sanctions that have yet to be felt and you're starting to get the picture. The energy sky is falling.

And Libya just shipped its first load of oil since last year. North American energy output is soaring despite fracking, transportation fears and anti-pipeline protests. We like to heat and cool our homes but only if you get us that volatile, smelly burning stuff by Immaculate Conception or, better yet, some government regulation.

In Europe refineries are running at bigger slowdown rates. If demand gets any weaker it will most likely join Japan in another episode of the lost decade. We are daily hearing warnings that start with : "Unless....," dire stuff all. Copper, the doctor of all metals, swooned again over fears about Chinese demand coupled with China's lowering its oil import.

Beside the North American output, so the story goes, a glut of oil in the Atlantic Basin and North Sea are compounding things. West Texas Intermediate after falling to a new low rallied to close at $97.42. Iraqi oil once thought to be at risk looks less risky.

Suppositions that Brent could breach the $100 level soon make the rounds daily.

The whole thing reminds of a scene from a famous long-ago movie where a defense attorney is grilling a prosecution witness about the witnesses' point of view.

"Maybe from where you're sitting," the witness responds to the attorney. "But I'm sitting over here."

Now we don't know about you but from where we're sitting the story has all the elements of the "Perfect  Calm."  And we all pretty much know what followed that.





Thursday, August 14, 2014

NIMBY NUTS

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In our recent "What The Market Offers" blurb a few days ago we brought up what to us is some of the craziness surrounding today's environmental movement.

Everyone's got a beef and nobody wants it in their backyard or running through their environmentally-sensitive soil.

Well, here's another read on the subject and just how wacko it can get. Whatever you do don't take our word for it. Read the article and decide for yourself. Here's a brief quote to wet your appetite.

Practicing politics in Massachusetts must be like steering a ship toward a safe harbor while running away from a hurricane. Certainly Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, who is being battered by environmentalists, must feel that way.

Patrick it should be noted is a Democrat who earlier was praised by many of these same people who now want to filet him. 

Understand that the Northeast has long wanted to bring more natural gas to the energy-starved region for a long time. Then go back and read Senator Warren's comments about providing energy the Massachusetts way we quoted in our blurb.

Put that in perspective with Senator Markey's silly comment we also quoted and you'll get an idea just how knotty this issue can get.

http://blogs.platts.com/2014/08/05/new-england-natural-gas-pipeline/

MONEY MADE HERE



The news is out, all over town. You've been seen running around.

Those words from an old Jerry Lee Lewis song, without much imagination, easily apply to the European Union mess.

The news is out all over Euro town and the ECB bureaucrats along with their illustrious leader, Mario the Dragster Draghi, have been caught stalling around.

Forget Godot or Abernomics, folks in the EU are waiting for Mr. Draghi and his lumbering crew of central bankers to QE things back to normal, whatever that is. 

Forget too the Call of the Wild; this is a call for Keynesian money printing in the modern-day wild and wooly world of central banking's version of:  If it's broke we can't fix it. But we can paper it over so the rough edges won't show until the next time.

It's those rough edges that political plasters like Renzi and Hollande never want to fix, just toss a little economic plaster over the cracks and keep moving before everybody gets their bifocals adjusted.

If today's numbers about France and the German 10-year bund yield are any indication, patience is growing short. The yield on the German benchmark bund dropped below 1% and France's economic growth pulled an apparent Houdini, disappearing without ever putting in an appearance.

Question: Contraction is to stagnation as?

Answer: Germany is to France.

There's one thing you can bet on. There's going to be some money made here. 
t. man hatter




TURN OUT THE LIGHTS THE PARTY'S OVER

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
 t. man hatter
We recently noted that we all know where easy money goes.

There's an old warning about if you're playing poker and after a certain time you don't know who the pasty is, you're it.

Just substitute easy money for poker and you'll get the drift. Here are some recent comments about Europe and it's economic plight.
--Japanification of Europe
--ECB needs to act now
--Germany stalls
--Latest inflation figures call for ultimate bazooka from ECB
--Can't wait to start QE

The ultimate big bazooka is oiling up the printing presses and warming up the helicopters to drop this stuff throughout Euroland. Supposedly, according to EU regulations, asset inflation is verboten as in against the law.

But one need only remember that illegal is only illegal as long as bureaucrats and politicians say it is. In the shifting sands world of these folks concrete doesn't exist. Forget the Rock of Gibraltar or even the Rock of Ages. This is rocky terrain looking for a place to landslide.

QE to the Germans is economic hemlock. They don't want it and most likely won't tolerate it. Nor should they. That big cracking sound you hear in the background just might be the EU coming apart at the periphery if QE gets unleashed.

What many of these people don't get is QE rhymes with Keynesianism and Keynesianism is belly up at the bar. And has been for a long time but someone forgot to turn out the lights as they were leaving.