AROUND THE WEB

 

1. Chief executives strategically time the release of good news to coincide with months in which their equity vests, according to a new study.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/09/08/ceos-sit-on-good-news-till-its-time-to-sell-stock-study-finds/

2. An investigation by The New York Times has found that several prominent Washington, D.C. think tanks have regularly taken donations from foreign entities in exchange for using their influence over U.S. policy decisions.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Investigation-Reveals-Surprising-Way-Foreign-Governments-Buy-Influence-In-D.C.html

3.Dollar up, Brent crude and gold down. 
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-jumps-yen-gives-japanese-

4. Let’s cut to the chase: There were 1,446,000 fewer people working full time in August 2014 than in August 2008, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey (CPS).

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/09/08/america-has-lost-over-1-4-million-full-time-jobs-since-2008-thanks-to-the-fed/

 5. Back when Quebec was weighing secession from Canada, I was a lowly American undergrad living in Montreal. It was an exciting time, since in America we have our railroads torn up and population starved when we secede. Now that Scotland is going through the motions, I figured I’d stir the pot, economically.http://profitsofchaos.com/2014/09/04/is-scotland-big-enough-to-go-it-alone/#more-687

6. WASHINGTON — The battle between oil producers and refiners over exporting U.S. crude is heating up. It started when four refiners blasted the government’s decision to green light some exports of minimally processed condensate, suggesting the private rulings ran afoul of the 1975 law that bars most U.S. crude from being sold overseas.http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/09/08/refiners-producers-battling-over-exports/

7. Colgate-Palmolive ($CL) is one of my favorite boring stocks. The shares usually don’t move around much. Lately, however, CL has badly lagged the market.
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2014/09/colgate-palmolive-drops-on-triclosan.html 

8. The streets of Jardim São Luis, a poor and violent neighborhood near the edge of São Paulo, have not been this quiet in years. And that is exactly why Valeria Rocha is so worried.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/09/us-brazil-election-middleclass-insight

9. Last Friday CNBC inadvertently indicted it own pandering when the winner of its “pick the number” contest hit 142,000 jobs right on the head, making a mockery of the 200-250k consensus range that had issued from the “experts”. The winning viewer’s name was Ronnie Squires, who described himself as “retired” and the owner of a (very) small business through which he occasionally transports unwanted cats and dogs in his pick-up to new out-of-state “homes” for friends. Along the way, he does his own jobs survey:

“I do a lot of traveling around the country and there’s still a lot of folks who say ‘there’s no jobs out there’.
I watch [CNBC] every day and I just don’t see it.
I don’t know if the people on Wall Street are not really getting out and seeing what’s really going on [in America].

       When you go to small towns, like I do, and talk to people – people don’t have much confidence in the numbers you hear.“http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/jobs-friday-how-bubblevision-misses-the-epic-failure-of-the-us-labor-market/

                   

OUR VIEW

For anyone paying attention, the recent U.S. court stickup of British Petroleum may turn out to be the excessive penalty straw that breaks the back of U.S. government robber barons.
 

What's been going on during this crew's reign of corporate terror is huge penalties and adverse legal assessments involving billions of dollars.

The list of victims is long and lush. Wrong doings are one thing and they should be punished. But blatant, broad-daylight stickups need to stop. With the latest BP court decision now one of America's staunchest allies--the United Kingdom, home of BP--has jumped into the fray for the second time.

French bank BNP was sentenced earlier this year to pony up $8.9 billion in fines for its corporate transgressions. Though the Justice Department in a phony, clumsy attempt to show impartiality slapped hefty fines on numerous U.S. corporations--mostly big banks--the penalty pendulum has in the view of many swung way too far.

In a recent amicus brief, the UK government said, according to the Financial Times, "It is the first such statement from the UK on BP's dispute over its compensation settlement, although it last year filed a similar amicus brief in an attempt to help lift the ban on the company winning US government contracts." 

Much talk about corporate greed makes the daily rounds of MSM. Not much on the other hand appears about government greed, one of the classic benchmarks of this administration. 

In a not unrelated matter, the current controversy of tax inversions, a legal move that allows U.S. corporations to move their tax domiciles to countries with lower tax rates by acquiring foreign rivals, New York senior Senator Chuck Schumer was quoted by the Times today:  'We need to move quickly and aggressively to curtail inversions and prevent companies from using shady accounting practices to avoid their US tax obligations."   

Schumer is in a rush to push through legislation to block such deals. Keep in mind that the legislation that allows such deals was framed by previous legislators. That should boost your confidence in anything these folks have to say, right or left. It should also force you to protest any rapid, backroom, overnight change of the law without going to the people first.

Notice the use of the word shady and the suggestion that such moves are unpatriotic, classical stuff from these elected, elitist demagogues. The U.S. tax code covers two parameters, evasion and avoidance. Only one of those is illegal. Taking advantage of  loopholes---another abstract terms politicians and MSM love to saddle with a pejorative connotation--is neither unpatriotic nor illegal.

Go to sleep on both of these issues at your own peril.

That's our view. We hope you know yours.

MARIO: RESCUE ME!

Things get bad and then if one is not looking they can get worse. And if your French President Francois Hollande that what appears to be happening.

According to a new poll quoted in the Financial Times, "Marie Le Pen, leader of  France's far-right National Front, would beat struggling incumbent Francois Hollande in a run-off election for the French presidency."

Though the next election isn't due until 2017, the poll favored Ms Le Pen by a margin of "54-46 per cent if they were matched today in the decisive second round of the presidential election."

But that's just the tip of Hollande's trouble. Another poll showed his approval rating at a new low of  just 13 percent. Left-wing newspaper Liberation, added insult to injury by saying: "Never has a head of state been so devalued."

Going from bad to worse as is often the case usually has a more juicy element, however, and Hollande's situation is no exception. In an apparent case of  hell, fury and scorn, a new book that came out just recently by a Ms Trieweiler, accused Hollande of lying about his infidelity.

Worse yet she accused him of poking fun at the poor, referring to them "the toothless." For a politician who was noted for saying he didn't like the rich, this is damaging copy. 

In an apparent race to the bottom between Hollande and his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, who reportedly  made similar disparaging comments about the poor, Hollande looks to be the victor with his approval rate at 13 percent versus Sarkozy's 20  percent. 

Meanwhile, back at the EU, short-term borrowing costs dropped into negative terrain after ECB President Mario Draghi unleashed  his new program in what some are calling WIT2, cutting interest rates and announcing an asset buyback program.

It now appears as if common folks are not the only ones counting on Whatever-It-Takes Mario to rescue more than than just the economy.
t. man hatter

WEEK UPCOMING

The week is sparse by recent standards especially with investors focusing on the FOMC meeting September 16-17 even more so in light of the recent weak job numbers.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)  The August job report was "somewhat disappointing," said Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston Fed, on Friday. His remarks were the first comment on the data from a Fed official. The central bank will go quiet next week as it prepares for its Sept. 16-17 policy meeting. Rosengren, who is on the dovish wing of the committee, is not a voting member this year. In a speech prepared for a conference of bankers in Boston, Rosengren said the U.S. central bank needs to remain patient on rate hikes to give the labor market more time to heal. There is also no upward pressure on inflation coming from wages, he noted. In his speech, he also called for the Fed to move away from any "date-based" forward guidance, and instead focus on "what incoming data tell us" about progress toward the central bank's twin goals of full employment and stable inflation. With the Fed getting close to its goals, and given uncertainty around forecasts, incoming data could cause the central bank to shift the first rate hike forward or backward in time, he said. Rosengren repeated he does not favor a rate hike until the Fed is within one year of achieving its goals of full employment, which he defined as a 5.25% unemployment rate, and inflation close to 2% annual rate.

Monday, September 8

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

3:00 Consumer Credit (Jul) - expected $17.3B, prior $17.25B
11:00 Fed buying $950M-$1.15b Treasuries in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $26b 3-month bills, $23b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Trade Balance
JPY GDP (2Q final)
CNY Trade Balance
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance
07:15 CHF CPI
12:30 CAD Building Permits

Earnings

After
FuelCell Energy (FUEL)
Campbell Soup (CPB)

Tuesday, September 9

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) - expected 96.0, prior 95.7
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings - exp 4711, prior 4671
10:00 Construction Spending MoM (Jul) - exp 0.8%, prior -1.8%
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury to sell $27b 3-year notes

Fedspeak

10:00am Tarullo (moderate, board member) testifies to Senate Banking Committee

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BoJ Minutes
01:30 AUD Home Loans
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index
08:30 GBP Trade Balance
08:30 GBP Industrial & Manufacturing Production
12:15 CAD Housing Starts
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (Aug)
9:30am BoE's Carney speaks in Liverpool

Earnings

Before:
Barnes & Noble (BKS)
HD Supply Holdings (HDS)

After
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

Wednesday, September 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
10:00 Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jul) - expected 0.5%, prior 0.3%
11:00 Fed to buy $350m-$450m TIPS in 5 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury to sell $21b 10-year notes (reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence
2:45pm BoE's Carney speaks to Parliament

Earnings

After
Five Below (FIVE)
Men's Wearhouse (MW)
Radioshack (RSH)

Thursday, September 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - expected 300K, prior 302K
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2500K, prior 2464K
2:00 Treasury Budget (Aug) - exp -$135B
11:00 Fed to purchase $2b-$2.5b Treasuries in 6 to 7-year range
1:00 Treasury to sell $13b 30-year bonds (reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

NZD RBNZ Rate Decision
JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (3Q)
01:30 CNY CPI & PPI
01:30 AUD Employment Change
06:00 EUR German CPI (Aug final)
12:30 CAD New Home Price Index
8:00pm ECB's Draghi speaks in Milan

Earnings

After:
Ulta Salon (ULTA)
Kroger (KR)

Friday, September 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Advance Retail Sales (Aug) - expected 0.5%, prior 0.0%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto - exp 0.2%, prior 0.1%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas - exp 0.4%, prior 0.1%
08:30 Import Price Index MoM (Aug) - exp -1.0%, prior -0.2%
09:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Sep prelim) - exp 83.5, prior 82.5
10:00 Business Inventories (Jul) - exp 0.5%, prior 0.4%

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
7:05am BoJ's Kuroda speaks

Earnings

Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

THE SURPRISES

What's interesting about this chart in the recemt aritcle in Barron's where it appeared, the caption stated based on many metrics the S&P 500 stock index is cheaper today that an prior peaks in 2000 and 2007.

That's called extrapolation. The suggestion is the past is absolute prologue. Maybe and maybe not. This market run-up is based on what many would say is unprecedented intervention. Not just the market but the economy is also coming off extreme lows from employment to interest rates to, according to the shills for the Street and the Fed, low inflation.

Looked at another way, this is a dangerous supposition. Years ago a friend's significant other ran off and left him early in heir relationship, but returned only to repeat the feat a couple more times. Since she'd come back every time before he assumed she would again. She never did.

It's not just the devil that's in the details. So are the surprises.