Saturday, September 6, 2014

THE SURPRISES


What's interesting about this chart in the recemt aritcle in Barron's where it appeared, the caption stated based on many metrics the S&P 500 stock index is cheaper today that an prior peaks in 2000 and 2007.

That's called extrapolation. The suggestion is the past is absolute prologue. Maybe and maybe not. This market run-up is based on what many would say is unprecedented intervention. Not just the market but the economy is also coming off extreme lows from employment to interest rates to, according to the shills for the Street and the Fed, low inflation.

Looked at another way, this is a dangerous supposition. Years ago a friend's significant other ran off and left him early in heir relationship, but returned only to repeat the feat a couple more times. Since she'd come back every time before he assumed she would again. She never did.

It's not just the devil that's in the details. So are the surprises.




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