Thursday, September 18, 2014

NEXT YEAR ON THEIR MIND


As is often the case with relatively brief front-page splashes, stories have a way of retreating into background atmosphere.

But that hardly means they go away or anything gets resolved simply because they're mostly out of sight. Argentina is a case in point.

After a protracted battle with its creditors, Argentina decided to default on some long-hanging financial obligations dating back several years, not a first for this beautiful South American country.
Nor a second either if you bother to check its economic history.

The exchange rate for Argentina's black market dollar, the 'dolar blue', has hit its highest rate in history at 15.10 dolar blue to one U.S. dollar.
The official rate, fixed by the government, has been set at 12 pesos to the U.S. dollar since the country devalued its currency in January.
To say that things usually get bad before they get worse is no exaggeration when it comes to Argentina and it's current leadership.

As one observer put it recently: "We are all looking into 2015 already."

That's when the next election is slated. The hope is a change in leadership will bring a change in fortune.


But a new administration is not the cure for what ails Argentina. It's just a teeny tiny step on the way to a recovery. Unfortunately, paying the holdouts wouldn't immediately help the country either.
"[If they pay the holdouts] they will still have pneumonia but at least the fat man sitting on their toes will get off," Loser said. 
What he means is that this isn't even close to over, especially since economists believe that another currency devaluation is on the way, given the country's economic malaise.
This is going to get worse before it gets better.
Axel Kicillof, the socialist outspoken, bellicose Economy Minister, responded as expected whenever  nyone is trying to flimflam their way out of something during a recent radio interview, blaming "a group of hedge fund holdout creditors suing the country for over $1.3 billion of sovereign debt."

Kicillof  claimed the rate was all part of a plan to speculate the country into ruin, and dismissed the size of the underground market.
"This attack on our money was all a part of the vultures' plan," said Kicillof. "The United States representative spoke of default, and that wasn't casual... The dolar blue is a small market that is illegal... It's easy for it move quickly... There are no economic reasons for the dollar to equal 15 pesos [15 dolar blue]. This is simply an attempt to generate panic. Do not be alarmed..."
 In July after the country defied a U.S. court order and tried to stiff the bondholders, it was ruled in default.

Kicillof's rantings aside, Argentina's problems are quite real and not new to a country that has a history of such goings-on.
 http://www.businessinsider.com/argentinas-black-market-dollar-hits-record-high-2014-9

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