First they said there wasn't, then they said there was and now they're saying there isn't.That's the latest, according to the Wall Street Journal, from Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei about another economic stimulus package for the world's second largest economy.
The news is out that China's probably not going to meet its 7.5% GDP growth target and the shivers and shakes are rolling through commodity markets. But the real truth is the number was bogus anyway.
Most of these numbers to begin with are cooked. As an old crony trader once told us, markets love excuses to react. And anyone who thinks the Fed's numbers are any different doesn't understand the term bias.
On down market days when nobody can find a valid reason for a sell off, old timers use to call it profit taking. But profits get taken everyday and the market doesn't go down. Mark Twain put it a bit differently: "One of the most striking differences between a cat and a lie is that the cat only has nine lives."
Metals took the brunt of the so-called bad news Monday, copper, zinc and nickel. But a few days earlier iron ore, an orphan child in this market if there ever was one, led the downturn by hitting a new low, its lowest since 2009.
Here's what Bloomberg calls its chart of the day. Investors got wrong-footed when they bet China would cough up another stimulus package at the first sign of more economic weakness. Brent crude oil futures, as the charts sows, peeled off 1.4% to close near its lowest level since mid-2012.
Extrapolating from last April when Chinese officials puffed up parts of the market including housing investors were looking for more of the same. So far they're still looking, looking, looking.
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