Sunday, September 28, 2014

WE LIKE THE ODDS

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The king has finally left the building.

No, we're not talking about Elvis if you're old enough to recall. We're talking bond guru Bill Gross who suddenly jumped ship to Janus Capital this week after 43 mostly upside years at Pimco, the firm he help found all those many moons ago.

Enough has been written already about Gross' scrapes with management and his former CEO Mohamed El-Erian and the current SEC rumblings about possible improprieties at Pimco's ETF fund that was created to mimic the original Gross-managed high flier, Pimco Total Return Fund.

So we'll spare you any rehash. Our interest is should you follow Gross to his new home at Janus Capital. We say yes. The reasons are too many to go into here. Suffice it to use one important word, motivation.

And if you like a cuter play try becoming a spreader, spreading some of your investments between Gross and the new but not so new guy left in charge after Gross' departure, Dan Ivascyn, a pretty good investor himself.

Though it's true top people are difficult to replace. A pretty good investor named Jeff Vinik replaced legendary Peter Lynch at Fidelity. And if you want to get right down to it Buffett superseded one of his famous mentors Benjamin Graham in the value world. And there have been many more.

Truth be told, Gross along with many others were the beneficiaries of the most propitious falling interest rate market in perhaps the history of bond trading, one that most likely won't come around again any time soon.

In fact, we just might be in for a reversal of unknown proportions going the other way if the global economy throws any significance head fakes. Despite what those economists will tell you, there's a lot paper fiat cash afloat in the world.

In our view, the rap about Janus being an equity outfit is over done along with their history of getting seriously burned during the dot-com bubble. They were hardly alone. Gross is also joining a former Pimco guy there.

Gross will set-up shop in Newport Beach and given his reputation he will cajole, wheedle and pay talented, hungry, savvy souls most likely to join him. Moreover, he will probably have less administrative fish to fry.

We like the odds.

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