Thursday, January 14, 2016
BUTCHERED WITHOUT BENEFIT OF CLERGY
We recently mention that the Canadian currency, the loonie, was getting butchered. Well, when it comes to grocery shopping, it isn't just the loonie, it's the people. They're getting butchered by the higher food prices they have to pay since the energy recession hit home.
Canada as pointed out imports a large portion of its fruits and veggies. With a sinking currency especially against the dollar, times in grocery aisles there are not peachy. More:
zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-13/canadians-panic-food-prices-soar-collapsing-currency
EU OPENING CHARTS
Here's are some opening numbers for European markets along with two charts from overnight Asia.
Note on opening in Europe all sectors in the red.
Note on opening in Europe all sectors in the red.
OVERNIGHT
As Reuters put it: "Volatility
in oil prices overshadowed better-than-feared trade data out of China
that initially lifted sentiment in equities and commodities."
A big U.S. selloff with the Dow down -365, the Nasdaq -65, and in the case of the Dow, lent fuel to the fire as it came closer to a 10% drop from its most recent high or something some refer to as "correction territory." The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have already suffered big declines that lend more uncertainty and fear to these selloffs.
In Asia things weren't any prettier for the most part as The Shanghai Composite flashed weakness most of the session bringing the index closer to bear market status or a decline of 20% from it's recent late December high. The same holds true for Japan which gave up nearly 3% bringing it dangerously close to that 20% bear market indicator investors look for. Since it's June high Japanese shares are down 18%. The Nikkei closed at 17420.95
Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea were all down. In South Korea's case it's already been a
tough week, so much so that Finance Minister Yoo ll-ho released a statement: "Exchanges rates should be left to markets, but if there are sudden changes, I feel we must react swiftly and firmly. Is this the day? No, but in general that is our stance."
The gap between the offshore and the onshore Chinese yuan also continues to concern investors. Add that to oil moving below $30 a barrel during trading and you have a gloomy mix investors will hardly like as they seek safer havens. Two safe havens likely to benefit are the yen and gold.
A big U.S. selloff with the Dow down -365, the Nasdaq -65, and in the case of the Dow, lent fuel to the fire as it came closer to a 10% drop from its most recent high or something some refer to as "correction territory." The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have already suffered big declines that lend more uncertainty and fear to these selloffs.
In Asia things weren't any prettier for the most part as The Shanghai Composite flashed weakness most of the session bringing the index closer to bear market status or a decline of 20% from it's recent late December high. The same holds true for Japan which gave up nearly 3% bringing it dangerously close to that 20% bear market indicator investors look for. Since it's June high Japanese shares are down 18%. The Nikkei closed at 17420.95
Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea were all down. In South Korea's case it's already been a
tough week, so much so that Finance Minister Yoo ll-ho released a statement: "Exchanges rates should be left to markets, but if there are sudden changes, I feel we must react swiftly and firmly. Is this the day? No, but in general that is our stance."
The gap between the offshore and the onshore Chinese yuan also continues to concern investors. Add that to oil moving below $30 a barrel during trading and you have a gloomy mix investors will hardly like as they seek safer havens. Two safe havens likely to benefit are the yen and gold.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
THE SPYING GROWS
Well, that's hardly a joke anymore given this article from the NYT. Once again under the fake facade of combating something or other to protect us all, government intrusion on its citizens grows. Now the U.S. Treasury has deemed it necessary to track ( We'll use a kinder, gentler term like governments often do than spy.) luxury real estate purchases.
A word of caution is in order for the simple reason they might end up being accused and sued for discrimination since many of these all cash purchases of upscale properties are made by wealthy Chinese. The Chinese stock market until the recent troubles has been on fire, creating a lot of wealthy people.
The article says their focusing on New York and South Florida. If you know anything about history and governments, you know that's just the beginning. Money laundering is a broad term, casting a wide net. Wide nets alway capture some of the intended species, but a whole lot of innocent unintended ones too.
Even if you can afford it, you might want to think three times before buying any upscale properties in those locations. You might end up on a government no fly real estate list. It's something the real estate profession will love to hear.
Concerned about illicit money flowing into luxury real estate, the Treasury Department said Wednesday that it would begin identifying and tracking secret buyers of high-end properties.The initiative will start in two of the nation’s major destinations for global wealth: Manhattan and Miami-Dade County. It will shine a light on the darkest corner of the real estate market: all-cash purchases made by shell companies that often shield purchasers’ identities.
It is the first time the federal government has required real estate companies to disclose names behind all-cash transactions, and it is likely to send shudders through the real estate industry, which has benefited enormously in recent years from a building boom increasingly dependent on wealthy, secretive buyers.
nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/us-will-track-secret-buyers-of-luxury-real-estate.
ONE OUTLOOK FOR 2016
Here are the big takeaways from Jeffery Grundlach's recent talk. See what he thinks about gold. Wages rising, dollar weakening, profits under pressure and outlook for gold sounds like a scenario for a little inflation on the horizon especially with a wait-and-see-reactionary Fed.
- There is no reason to be bullish on oil over the long term.
- Interest rates could move higher but 2016 is a year to "wait and see" and then react to the markets rather than make a bold call.
- The dollar's rally is probably done for now, especially in light of how consensus says the dollar is continuing to rally.
- Wages are going up and profits are going to remain under pressure.
GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK ACTIONS
It's a mixed bag. Here's graphic from Deutsch bank showing what mode global central banks are in to start the year.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
BIG HUNK
There's always a lot of talk about greed, especially when bull markets turn red. There are different kinds of greed, to be sure, but when it comes to money it's usually a term applied to the wealthy.
Last we read the Super Ball jackpot is now abut $1.5 billion. Here's an interesting read bout another kind of greed, government. Big hunk would be more correct.
"If they win the jackpot, they're going to be subject to the highest federal tax rate of 39.6 percent," said Melissa Labant, director of tax advocacy for the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. "It's a lot more significant than folks expect."
Nor are there many workarounds to substantially cut that bill. "You're not the type of consumer the U.S. government is looking to give a tax break to," she said. More:
cnbc.com/2016/01/11/tallying-the-big-tax-bite-of-a-14b-powerball-win.
THE BIG BANKING BUIDOIR
For those who will label us conspiratorial freaks we say not so fast. Big banks and the Federal Reserve have been sharing the same boudoir for a long time. One doesn't have to be a skilled trapper to follow the tracks.
As the article notes, this is one leg of the bipedal vehicle to control global finance, the industrial-military complex and the Wall Street money changers who get by with not a little but a lot of help from their Federal Reserve Bank friends. Like the old saying: Whatever happens in the dark has a way of finding the light. The same rings true for arrogance.
Russia has just taken significant steps that will break the present Wall Street oil price monopoly, at least for a huge part of the world oil market. The move is part of a longer-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, today the Achilles Heel of the Russian economy.
The ‘Petrodollar’ demise
US wars financed with others’ dollars
As the article notes, this is one leg of the bipedal vehicle to control global finance, the industrial-military complex and the Wall Street money changers who get by with not a little but a lot of help from their Federal Reserve Bank friends. Like the old saying: Whatever happens in the dark has a way of finding the light. The same rings true for arrogance.
Russia has just taken significant steps that will break the present Wall Street oil price monopoly, at least for a huge part of the world oil market. The move is part of a longer-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, today the Achilles Heel of the Russian economy.
Later in November the Russian Energy
Ministry has announced that it will begin test-trading of a new Russian
oil benchmark. While this might sound like small beer to many, it’s
huge. If successful, and there is no reason why it won’t be, the Russian
crude oil benchmark futures contract traded on Russian exchanges, will
price oil in rubles and no longer in US dollars. It is part of a
de-dollarization move that Russia, China and a growing number of other
countries have quietly begun.
The setting of an oil benchmark price is
at the heart of the method used by major Wall Street banks to control
world oil prices. Oil is the world’s largest commodity in dollar terms.
Today, the price of Russian crude oil is referenced to what is called
the Brent price. The problem is that the Brent field, along with other
major North Sea oil fields is in major decline, meaning that Wall Street
can use a vanishing benchmark to leverage control over vastly larger
oil volumes. The other problem is that the Brent contract is controlled
essentially by Wall Street and the derivatives manipulations of banks
like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP MorganChase and Citibank.
The sale of oil denominated in dollars is essential for the support of the US dollar.
In turn, maintaining demand for dollars by world central banks for
their currency reserves to back foreign trade of countries like China,
Japan or Germany, is essential if the United States dollar is to remain
the leading world reserve currency. That status as world’s leading
reserve currency is one of two pillars of American hegemony since the
end of World War II. The second pillar is world military supremacy.
Because all other nations need to
acquire dollars to buy imports of oil and most other commodities, a
country such as Russia or China typically invests the trade surplus
dollars its companies earn in the form of US government bonds or similar
US government securities. The only other candidate large enough, the
Euro, since the 2010 Greek crisis, is seen as more risky.
That leading reserve role of the US
dollar, since August 1971 when the dollar broke from gold-backing, has
essentially allowed the US Government to run seemingly endless budget
deficits without having to worry about rising interest rates, like
having a permanent overdraft credit at your bank.
That in effect has allowed Washington to
create a record $18.6 trillion federal debt without major concern.
Today the ratio of US government debt to GDP is 111%. In 2001 when
George W. Bush took office and before trillions were spent on the Afghan
and Iraq “War on Terror,” US debt to GDP was just half, or 55%. The
glib expression in Washington is that “debt doesn’t matter,” as the
assumption is that the world—Russia, China, Japan, India, Germany–will
always buy US debt with their trade surplus dollars. The ability of
Washington to hold the lead reserve currency role, a strategic priority
for Washington and Wall Street, is vitally tied to how world oil prices
are determined.
In the period up until the end of the 1980’s world oil prices were determined largely by real daily supply and demand.
It was the province of oil buyers and oil sellers. Then Goldman Sachs
decided to buy the small Wall Street commodity brokerage, J. Aron in the
1980’s. They had their eye set on transforming how oil is traded in
world markets.
It was the advent of “paper oil,” oil
traded in futures, contracts independent of delivery of physical crude,
easier for the large banks to manipulate based on rumors and derivative
market skullduggery, as a handful of Wall Street banks dominated oil
futures trades and knew just who held what positions, a convenient
insider role that is rarely mentioned in polite company. It was the beginning More:
OTHER VOICES
Here's Jeff Gundlach's latest talk on what will happen this year.
Titled "Just Markets," there are several interesting charts to peruse such as this one.
.businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-presentation-januray-2016-2016-1?
Titled "Just Markets," there are several interesting charts to peruse such as this one.
.businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-presentation-januray-2016-2016-1?
OVERNIGHT
Is it just a case of grasping at straws or wishful thinking? Asian shares rallied overnight apparently based on China's latest trade data. Coming in better than expected, Chinese exports for December rose 2.3% in yuan-denominated terms from last year. Imports dropped 4%.
In dollar terms, exports fell but not neatly as much economists expected, dropping 1.4 % much less than the 8% decline predicted by 15 Wall Street economists. In real terms it was the sixth
straight down month. As reported in the WSJ : On Wednesday, official data showed China’s exports measured in dollar terms fell for the sixth straight month in December compared with a year earlier, underscoring the headwinds faced by the world’s second-largest economy. Exports slid 1.4% in December, following a 6.8% drop in November.
So, much of the cheering is trend based. Meanwhile. Share prices in Japan, Australia and even China rallied on the apparent good news. In a word, stabilizing became the word of the session as investors hope for more of such in the yuan and in the Chinese economy. The U.S. dollar gained as the yen and euro eased and the hope for more stability helped crushed commodities as oil closed above $30 a barrel after trading earlier at $29.93 before rallying.
Any real sign of stability should prove beneficial to the energy sector.
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