Job News Out

Those much awaited non-farm payroll numbers are out and out with them are the requisite spin masters.Unless they're buried purposely several paragraph deep in the story, you won't find these points noted.

Here's are some examples.

Factories cut payrolls by 14,000, the most in three months. Employment at construction companies fell for the fourth time in the last five months

Those counted as not in the labor force increased by 58,000 to 94.4 million.

The unemployment rate for those without a high school diploma jumped from 6.3 percent in July to 7.2 percent. Does this include some guesstimate of illegals without high school degrees?

The 5-month average in employment is only 58,800.

 The bulk of the job additions were in the lower--paying class.

Many of the actual jobs created are of the restaurant and bar keep variety.

Here's a quote that we find laughable. "This mixed jobs report puts the Fed in a tricky situation. It's not all around strong enough to assure a September interest rate hike. But it's solid enough to engender a heated policy discussion," said Mohamed el-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, in Newport Beach, California.

Heated debate is the last thing this group of what many now believe and are saying is incompetent needs or is capable of. This Fed has been in a tricky situation almost since day one. This are no signs they will suddenly wake up and get it. Below are some interesting charts from two sites: 


mishtalk.com/2016/09/02/jobs-151k-private-126k-employment-97k-september-hike-off-the-table

 
zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-02/where-august-jobs-were 
 
 

Overnight

All week long we've been saying it's about Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll jobs report and Friday's overnight Asian trading proves the point given the weak Institute of Supply Management report that rattled markets Thursday.

The ISM came in at 49.4 as factory orders and productivity weakened in August for the first time in six months. Coupled with weak auto sales it was apparently enough to trouble investors, causing more concerns about a sooner-rather-than later rate hike from the Fed. Productivity has been a term much on the lips of Fed officials of late as it has not returned to expected levels after monstrous episodes of monetary stimuli.

The Fed's credibility is already much in question and given their lack of real direction and ongoing jawboning about rates, investors concerns are growing. Any surprises with Friday's numbers could signal more trouble for them as some believe they are just trying to hold this whole scenario intact until after November.

The WSJ reported: Asian shares were mixed Friday as traders awaited the latest U.S. jobs report, the strength of which could help determine the timing of the next interest-rate increase. A sooner-than-expected rate increase in September by the Federal Reserve could pull foreign capital out of emerging markets in Asia, analysts say, though a December rate increase would have already been priced in by investors. 

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.9%, with the Nikkei Stock Average flat, and Singapore’s Straits Times Index falling 0.4%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was barely changed, spending the day swaying in and out of the red.
Shanghai .SSEC fell 0.2 percent while South Korea's Kospi .KS11 eked out a 0.3 percent gain. Australian stocks lost 0.8 percent and Japan's Nikkei .N225 was down 0.1 percent. 

The two Chinese composite indexes were flat. U.S.crude oil edged up 0.6% at $43.41 after concerns about growing supply push the price to recent three-week low. gold held steady at $1,312.70 an ounce after dropping to a two month low of $1,301.91 a day earlier. The prospect of a sooner-rather-than-later rate hike by the Fed has softened gold's appeal., but that could change on a dime--that is, if anyone uses them any more-- should those Friday numbers disappoint badly and the Fed appears to be equivocating further.

Birds And

Talk about the birds and the bees might soon just be talk with no bees. Honey bees have been for some time mysteriously dying off without any reasonable notion yet as far as we know why.

This was before the Zika hysteria. Now is after. In their hysteria and zealousness public healthcare officials are spraying insecticide without warning. At least that's what happened here.

SUMMERVILLE, S.C. (AP) — There's been some collateral damage in the fight against Zika - millions of honeybees in South Carolina.

News outlets report that Dorchester County officials have apologized for killing the bees when the county failed to notify local beekeepers about mosquito spraying last weekend.

Four travel-related cases of the Zika virus have been confirmed in the county northwest of Charleston. Aerial mosquito spraying operations were conducted Sunday morning.

Flowertown Bee Farm and Supply in Summerville lost more than two million bees,. Company co-owner Juanita Stanley says the farm "looks like it's been nuked." Andrew Macke, a hobby beekeeper, says he lost thousands of bees.

The county usually notifies beekeepers before it sprays for mosquitoes. Officials say Sunday was the first time spraying had been done from the air.

----

Spraying from the air is even more dangerous, but oh well.......we have to protect you from this dreaded killer that has probably done in world wide one-tenth of one-quarter of one-half of those reportedly killed by healthcare workers in this country last year.

Overnight

Lower crude oil prices spilled over from Wall Street to Asian shares Thursday as eyes are focused on the U.S. non-farm payroll jobs Friday keeping things relatively quiet. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.2%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.5%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average traded up 0.1%.

The WSJ reported: "Trading volumes across Asia, particularly in Japan and China, remained well below 100-day moving averages for most of August, as summer holiday absences and unmet expectations of monetary easing contributed to reduced volatility and a slower trading season. The start of the fall season and key economic data points from the U.S. could change that.

The Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers index, a private gauge of nationwide factory activity, fell to 50.0 in August from 50.6 in July but still showed an expansion, albeit at a slower pace.

Still, the August data helped turn losses into gains in Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.2%. However, investor excitement was lacking in mainland China, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.2% and the Shenzhen Composite Index also down around that much."

Traders also pointed to dollar strength as one of the reasons for lower commodity prices. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was at 95.986 as of 11:04 a.m. HK/SIN, up from levels below 94.800 last week.

The Japanese yen weakened, with dollar strength pushing the dollar/yen pair to 103.21, up from levels near 100.50 last week, Reuters noted.

Market Wrap

The stock market wilted a bit on the last day of the month on Wall Street Wednesday wiping out much of the gains of August as the last month of summer came to an end.

Bloomberg  reported: The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent to 2,170.95 as of 4 p.m. in New York. After posting five straight monthly gains and reaching a record Aug. 15, the U.S. benchmark has failed to maintain its momentum amid mixed economic data and uncertainty over the timing of the Fed’s next move. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index rallied 13 percent in August

 Futures on Asian equity indexes mostly signaled declines, with contracts on gauges in Sydney, Seoul and Hong Kong down at least 0.4 percent in most recent trading. Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures added 0.1 percent to 16,900 in Osaka, and gained 0.3 percent to 16,910 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange amid a sixth day of losses for the yen.

Energy companies trimmed their August advance to 0.6 percent, while utility stocks     posted their biggest monthly decline in more than a year. Phone companies had their worst month since 2014 as technology and financial shares both rose for a second month.
European stocks fell 0.4 percent as declines in commodity and energy producers outweighed the best month for banks in more than a year. Commerzbank AG and Deutsche Bank AG rallied after Manager Magazin reported the latter was considering a potential merger. Greek lenders pushed the ASE Index to the best performance among western-European markets after Piraeus Bank SA and Alpha Bank AE released earnings.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index trimmed its third consecutive monthly gain on Wednesday as declining commodity prices weighed on benchmark gauges in raw material-dependent nations from Russia to South Africa and Brazil.

We expect Asia to show similar results when we check overnight trading.

The Faces Of College Fascism

 
The last we looked the University of Colorado system is a state taxpayer supported institution. If this is the kind of closed attitude to what is supposed to be a free zone of discussion and ideas for young people, fine. If it isn't you might want to organize and use your voice and the purchasing power of the boycott to push this issue to public debate.

Professors Laroche, Haggren and Skahill of the University of Colorado - Colorado Springs will not allow you to invade their man-made climate change "safe space" and if you don't like it then you can get out.  According to The College Fix, that is the response students recently received from the progressive teacher trio after "expressing concern" for their success in a course that refused to debate climate change. 

The full email from the teachers is posted below but here are a couple of the highlights:

"We have received several emails from students expressing concern for their success in our course given their personal perspectives on climate change."

“The point of departure for this course is based on the scientific premise that human induced climate change is valid and occurring. We will not, at any time, debate the science of climate change, nor will the ‘other side’ of the climate change debate be taught or discussed in this course.  Opening up a debate that 98% of climate scientists unequivocally agree to be a non-debate would detract from the central concerns of environment and health addressed in this course.”

“… If you believe this premise to be an issue for you, we respectfully ask that you do not take this course, as there are options within the Humanities program for face to face this semester and online next.

 To begin with, that 98% of climate change scientists unequivocally agree is a blatant lie That should not be allowed to go unchallenged. Academia has become the new quarters of using taxpayer funds to promote and support fascism.

.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-31/colorado-professors-tell-climate-change-deniers-get-out-we-will-not-any-time-debate-

Distraction Works

Without villains there's no need for heroes.

Like heroes, vaccine manufactures need villains. And they found one late in 2015 when the propaganda presses cranked up the ink on their latest future revenue ticket, the dreaded Zika virus.
Don't look now but there are at least four companies and the CDC working on Zika vaccine. With that kind of reaction one would think this is a deadly epidemic killing people off en mass.

Yet the number of deaths owing to the virus--and that number itself is problematic, to use a kind term-- is infinitesimal with a capital I. Granted, one death is one too many. With seven billion folks on the planet, however, and a mandatory vaccination for each, that's some big bucks worth chasing, especially if it's government funded with your money.

These vaccines are like these giant billion dollar sports complexes, nearly all of them get funded with some of your money without your consent. Now if these money grubbers could just come up with a vaccine that cuts highway auto accident deaths by half that would be worth the expense. The Zika scare is a hoax. Besides apple pie and the Fourth of July what could be purer than saving pregnant moms and their babies?

As the cited article below points out, the U.S. has 25,000 babies born annually with microcephaly and has had long before anyone in the public sector ever heard the term Zika. But par for the course in February this administration jumped on the panic button, requesting 1.9 billion dollars to study the situation and to develop a Zika vaccine. [17]. It helps to have friends in high places. 

In the almost 70 years since the Zika virus was patented by the Rockefeller Foundation, [1] no one ever noticed any association between Zika infection of pregnant women and their babies being born with abnormally small heads or with defects in brain development. But in 2015, we were suddenly made aware of this supposed problem. This claim, based on nothing more than circumstantial evidence, was the beginning point for the propaganda campaign. A propaganda claim doesn’t need to be true; it just needs to be repeated over and over again until people believe it is true.

There is one key point that I want to bring forward from the previous article concerning the number of babies born with microcephaly. First we heard that there were some 4,783 cases of microcephaly in Brazil. After the initial shock and panic was produced, we learned that further investigation showed that the number of confirmed cases was only 483.

The mainstream media also didn’t mention that the number of babies born in the United States with microcephaly in a typical year is 25,000. When adjusting for population differences between the US and Brazil, we find that the rate of microcephaly in the US is actually 40 times higher than the rate in Brazil.

In other words, the US microcephaly incidence is much higher than Brazil, and our babies didn’t get it from Zika. Maybe our babies got it from the various potential causes I discussed in my previous article.

I should also state that the researchers who put their names on this article are all employees of the CDC. [20] I must question whether their analysis was truly objective and whether their findings were influenced by CDC ties to Big Pharma. [21]

In the past several years we've had avian flu, pig flu,West Nile virus and Ebola. It takes several years to develop a vaccine. So keeping them on the front news burner is important to getting funds.Though Zika might upstage it, now you can most likely get prepared for another scare about the avian flu. This discovery occurred two days ago, according to news reports.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has detected a devastating strain of avian flu in a wild mallard duck in a state refuge in Fairbanks, Alaska.

The strain, H5N2, is the same type of avian flu that affected more than 50 million chickens and turkeys in 15 different states last year, causing U.S. poultry exporters to lose millions of dollars because some of the countries halted all imports from the U.S.

If it bleeds it leads is not the only MSM ploy. Hysteria sells well, too. Now this. On August 26, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a report regarding the alleged sexual transmission of the Zika virus by a man who displayed no symptoms of the disease before or after having intercourse with his female partner, who subsequently contracted the disease.

The case involved a Maryland man who had traveled to the Dominican Republic – a country where a Zika outbreak is underway – but who showed no signs of the disease when he returned and engaged in unprotected sex with his partner.

The woman had not traveled to any Zika-infested areas, and the CDC is claiming that the case is the first of its kind – at least in the United States – in which a seemingly uninfected person transmitted the disease through sexual activity.

Although doctors say that this type of transmission is extremely rare, the CDC report – which has been dutifully covered by the Associated Press – is likely to only heighten the paranoia regarding the Zika virus.

In fact, it's not too difficult to imagine a scenario in the near future where sexual intercourse involving those infected by Zika is made illegal by government authorities, similar to laws created in response to the spread of HIV/AIDS.

In the literature for years about transmission of Hepatitis C sexual risk of transmission was listed at one percent by authorities. We challenge those authorities to show us statistics on confirmed cases where the virus was spread sexually in healthy non-intravenous drug using addicts.

Distraction works. 



healthimpactnews.com/2016/zika-a-masterpiece-of-public-mind-control

The Last Eight Words.

Here is a great paragraph that says about all you want to know about elitist academic economists and their kind. If the words pathetically insular come to mind you are on to the whole scam.

One of the articles referenced in Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech last week was a piece written for the Peterson Institute for International Economics by Senior Fellow Olivier Blanchard. Dr. Blanchard has, as noted earlier today, all the “right” credentials, which is why his conjecture gets included into the speeches of Federal Reserve Chairmen. Having taught at both Harvard and MIT, becoming chair of the economics department at MIT for five years, landed Blanchard the role of research director at the IMF. Private experience is obviously missing from his resume.

The most important and truthful part of the paragraph is the last eight words.

Here's more to show just how desperately these people are lost, alienatated in their economic cocoons fron any sense of reality, yet urging the rest of us they somehow have the answers and if we we're not so ignorant we'd lockstep with them over the cliff.

Dr. Blanchard’s article was an attempt to “explain” the yield curve in the United States. Economists like Blanchard are so indoctrinated in central bank and QE mythology that what is exceedingly simple is dismissed as impossible. Persistently low interest rates are proof of “tight” money in the real economy; but that just can’t be with QE and all the amassed central bank intellectual capacity in that area. Instead, they must make the most absurd arguments to try to square a circle of their own often circular logic or paradoxes (central bankers know everything about money but now central bankers are stumped, therefore it can’t be money?).

You can read his whole argument and decide for yourself, of course, as I will only highlight but one of three reasons he specifies as really a window into this academic divide. One of the primary correlations in this view, which isn’t necessarily consistent with actual data, is that low rates are a function of low productivity and expectations for continuing low productivity. Blanchard tries to argue that while the crash in 2008 might explain the lack of productivity in the immediate aftermath, it doesn’t do much to render understanding about why it appears to have lingered.

To have become permanent, he contends, is the partial responsibility of “gloom”; I’m not making this up. He actually writes, “I believe that this bad news about the future largely explains the relative weakness of demand today.” And that sets up what is a very good example in how economists think not about the economy in which we all live but the “economy” where models prevail.

It is useful to play with some numbers here. Suppose that you learn that your income over the next 30 years will rise at 4 percent rather than at 5 percent as you expected earlier (because income typically increases with age, individual income typically increases faster than aggregate income). This represents a roughly 20 percent decrease in the present value of your future earnings, and is likely to lead you to consume say 10 percent less. If this realization comes to you over a period of five years, you will decrease consumption by 2 percent each year relative to your income. Returning to aggregate implications, as consumers adjust their expectations the way you do, consumption growth will be weak. The same argument applies to investment. The lower the expected growth rate of profit, the lower the desired level of capital, and this in turn will lead to a period of low investment until the new lower level of capital is reached.

Nobody but an economist would think like this; and while this example is meant as a means to translate a very real phenomenon into the math-speak of regressions that academics use, he is seemingly unaware of the translation and thus the potential for error in even attempting it. In the world of high-credential universities, actual phenomenon must be converted into linear functions. That means that “gloom” has to be accounted for across several variables that can be each modeled in such a way that it makes sense to the mathematical versions of reality (and thus to economists who think I equations first).

Any non-indoctrinated non-statistician can immediately recognize the problems with thus thinking math-first. If you need to translate the real world into nonsensical linear mathematics before you can attempt to understand said world, then the bond market will really be a mystery to you.

In the world of the real, businesses don’t invest because their revenues don’t expand; end of story. Revenues aren’t expanding because businesses won’t hire no matter what the unemployment rate says; end of story. This was all, of course, one of the factors that quantitative easing was meant specifically to address – derived from the statistically modeled understanding of expectations rather than the actual conditions of them. The “wealth effect” was supposed to break the economy out of any gloom, as rising asset prices, especially the repeated and emphasized “record highs” of stocks, bonds, or anything in between, would surely negate any immediate “gloom” as it rolled over into expectations of an impeccable future.

Economic theory just does not allow for the possibility that asset prices, particularly stocks, are anything but completely efficient. But that is increasingly what we find, even in the math of orthodox construction. As noted earlier, the CBO has been keeping account of the withering failure of monetary policy in a manner that economists don’t want anyone to explore. Rewriting economic “potential” within these very mathematical functions serves to undermine the core of orthodox economics itself, especially since the CBO is not just proving the lack of recovery but rewriting most of the 21st century economy with it. zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-30/academic-tries-explain-yield-curve-says-gloom-irrational.

Demand For Safes

If you want another reason to place your thumb on your nose and wave your fingers in contempt at proponents of a cashless society like Harvard's Lawrence Summers and Kenneth S. Rogoff, two economist who value their egos more than your financial futures, read this.

Near zero and negative interest rates have been killing savers for several years now. But people are finally catching on as confidence in bureaucrats running the show and their institutions wanes. Then, just last week, Deutsche Bank’s CEO came about as close to shouting fire in a crowded negative rate theater, when, in a Handelsblatt Op-Ed, he warned of “fatal consequences” for savers in Germany and Europe – to be sure, being the CEO of the world’s most systemically risky bank did not help his cause.

Germans are renown for many things, one of which is frugality. Another is their penchant for savings.

Indeed, as even the WSJ now admits, for years, “Germans kept socking money away in savings accounts despite plunging interest rates. Savers deemed the accounts secure, and they still offered easy cash access. But recently, many have lost faith.” We wondered how many “fatal” warnings from the CEO of DB it would take, before this shift would finally take place. As it turns out, one was enough.
To be sure, the Germans are merely catching up to where the Japanese were over half a year ago. As we wrote in February, “look no further than Japan’s hardware stores for a worrying new sign that consumers are hoarding cash–the opposite of what the Bank of Japan had hoped when it recently introduced negative interest rates. Signs are emerging of higher demand for safes—a place where the interest rate on cash is always zero, no matter what the central bank does.

“In response to negative interest rates, there are elderly people who’re thinking of keeping their money under a mattress,” one saleswoman at a Shimachu store in eastern Tokyo told The Journal, which also says at least one model costing $700 is sold out and won’t be available again for a month.

“According to the BOJ theory, they should have moved their funds into riskier but higher-earning assets. Instead, they moved into pure cash that earned nothing,” Richard Katz, author of The Oriental Economist newsletter wrote this month.

 Now it’s Germany’s turn.

“It doesn’t pay to keep money in the bank, and on top of that you’re being taxed on it,” said Uwe Wiese, an 82-year-old pensioner who recently bought a home safe to stash roughly €53,000 ($59,344), including part of his company pension that he took as a payout.
Interest rates’ plunge into negative territory is now accelerating demand for impregnable metal boxes.

Read more:
davidstockmanscontracorner.com/thanks-mario-boom-in-german-market-for-home-safes/

Overnight

Asian shares softened Wednesday with the growing prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S., pushing the greenback up versus other currencies. A down Wall Street day added to the concern ahead of Friday's non-payroll jobs report.

The one exception was the Nikkei at 1661.80, up0.82% on the weaker yen, the MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan,down 0.3%,the Australian ASX 200 off 1.1%, the Kospi lower 0.3% as the dollar rose overnight against the yen 1.1%., the MSCI index still is on track to wind up August with a modest gain close to 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng remained flat and the Shanghai Composite Index edged  up 0.1%.

As fears about capital flight continue perhaps much more interesting is the Japanese have been trying to stimulate their economy for seemingly a couple of blue moons and, as one writer recently noted, "Prime Minister Shinzo Abe introduced negative interest rates in January. This has driven down the yields on Japan government bonds to the point where 80 percent of them now offer a negative yield. This means that owning them is a guaranteed way to lose money.

"But Japan is a nation of savers. And one of their favourite ways to save is government bonds. Since buying these will now mean they lose money, more investors have turned to gold in recent months.
Despite the rise in demand, Japan’s absolute demand for gold is still quite small compared to that of other countries. Last quarter Japan’s absolute demand for gold (in tonnes) was only 5 percent of demand coming from China."



Gold prices edged higher in overnight trade in Asia as the yellow stuff seems caught between the rock of possible higher interest rates in the U.S. and the hard place of a weaker yen that for now troubles investors. Add to that global uncertainty and you have a recipe for some confusion.

Other concerns given Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer's comment Tuesday that the  job market was nearly at full strength and the future of interest rates depends how well the economy is doing. To many the danger here is the Fed's chasing of just a number. Sure consumer confidence hit an 11 month high in August, but there are still plenty of troubling signs about the economy around. One such is the little noticed import activity of ports. U.S. ports, according to the WSJ, geared up this summer for more business only to be left waiting at the docks as they are "..on pace to handle 2.2% more imports this year, the slowest rate of growth since2011."