Friday, September 2, 2016

Overnight


All week long we've been saying it's about Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll jobs report and Friday's overnight Asian trading proves the point given the weak Institute of Supply Management report that rattled markets Thursday.

The ISM came in at 49.4 as factory orders and productivity weakened in August for the first time in six months. Coupled with weak auto sales it was apparently enough to trouble investors, causing more concerns about a sooner-rather-than later rate hike from the Fed. Productivity has been a term much on the lips of Fed officials of late as it has not returned to expected levels after monstrous episodes of monetary stimuli.

The Fed's credibility is already much in question and given their lack of real direction and ongoing jawboning about rates, investors concerns are growing. Any surprises with Friday's numbers could signal more trouble for them as some believe they are just trying to hold this whole scenario intact until after November.

The WSJ reported: Asian shares were mixed Friday as traders awaited the latest U.S. jobs report, the strength of which could help determine the timing of the next interest-rate increase. A sooner-than-expected rate increase in September by the Federal Reserve could pull foreign capital out of emerging markets in Asia, analysts say, though a December rate increase would have already been priced in by investors. 

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.9%, with the Nikkei Stock Average flat, and Singapore’s Straits Times Index falling 0.4%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was barely changed, spending the day swaying in and out of the red.
Shanghai .SSEC fell 0.2 percent while South Korea's Kospi .KS11 eked out a 0.3 percent gain. Australian stocks lost 0.8 percent and Japan's Nikkei .N225 was down 0.1 percent. 

The two Chinese composite indexes were flat. U.S.crude oil edged up 0.6% at $43.41 after concerns about growing supply push the price to recent three-week low. gold held steady at $1,312.70 an ounce after dropping to a two month low of $1,301.91 a day earlier. The prospect of a sooner-rather-than-later rate hike by the Fed has softened gold's appeal., but that could change on a dime--that is, if anyone uses them any more-- should those Friday numbers disappoint badly and the Fed appears to be equivocating further.



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