The Drudge Report ran this picture of a younger Donald Trump today with the caption: "Now They Take Him Seriously."
Who is they? The big banks like Citi, JP Morgan's Jamie (It isn't too late to change your mind Brexit voters) Dimon and,of course, the biggest of the big bank villains, Goldman Sachs, one of the Fed's favorite wards.
"Take a look at me now, now that I can dance," goes the words of an old song. Well, these Wall Street boys and girls now know Trump can dance with any of them. And that raises another question. What does this mean for gold in a world dominated by phony fiat paper money, mounds upon mounds of debt and negative zero interest rates being shepherded over not by three blind mice, but Curly, Moe and Larry, aka, the ECB, the BOJ and the Fed. Gold is up 26% this year.
Here's Citi"take. It's of interest not because of its accuracy but because to give the Donald a 40 percent chance of pulling this thing off a few short months back tells you there a lot grudgingly in that 40 percent..
Gold may be in for a bumpy ride in the final quarter as Republican candidate Donald Trump now has a 40 percent chance of winning the presidential election and investors will be preparing for the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates, according to Citigroup Inc.
Volatility in bullion and foreign-exchange markets may increase, according to a commodities report from the bank as it raised the odds on a Trump victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton in November from 35 percent. There would probably be a single U.S. hike by year-end, it said. A Bloomberg Politics poll has Trump and Clinton deadlocked before a debate later today.
Bullion has rallied 26 percent in 2016, rebounding from three years of losses, as low or negative interest rates have bolstered demand. Political uncertainty has also played a part, with the U.K.’s vote to quit the European Union spurring haven demand. Forecasters including Singapore-based DBS Group Holdings Ltd. have said that the U.S. contest may buttress prices amid concern about the possible implications of a Trump presidency.
“Polls have started to tighten ahead of the U.S. presidential election, and Citi has raised the probability of a Trump victory,” the bank said in the note. “We expect a Trump win would bring out higher volatility in gold and forex, which in turn should lead to higher volumes in other precious metals.”
Gold was at $1,337.23 an ounce by 12:57 p.m. in London, with Citigroup seeing futures at $1,350 on a three-month basis and $1,270 on a six- to 12-month view. Under the bank’s base case it may be at $1,320 in the final quarter, or $1,425 under the bull case, which included the possibility of a Trump win. The Republican and Democratic nominees each get 46 percent of likely voters in a head-to-head contest in the latest Bloomberg Politics national poll, while Trump has 43 percent to Clinton’s 41 percent when third-party candidates are included.
Trump has proven to be a resilient if unconventional candidate, courting controversy with blunt remarks throughout his run for the White House to see off a crowded Republican field of contenders and face the former secretary of state. Among policy proposals, he’s attacked U.S. trade policy and threatened to build a wall along the border with Mexico.
As we pointed out before about Citi"s 40 percent chance of a Trump victory, there's a lot of grudgingly in those gold numbers.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-25/citi-says-gold-may-be-volatile-raises-odds-on-trump-win-to-40
No comments:
Post a Comment