Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Another Big Deal

There is a suspicious article ( We would say phony, but we're now half-way through our week of trying to remain civil given the current circus afoot.) in today's Wall Street Journal with the headline, "Family Incomes Rise After Lull."

What makes it especially suspicious is the timing, also the source. Of all the agencies in Washington--and there are far too many to count--the one with probably the least accurate statistics, just slightly ahead of the BLS, is the Census Bureau.
 
A surge in U.S. incomes last year delivered the first significant raise for the typical family after seven years of stagnant and declining earnings, the result of sustained job growth finally lifting a broad swath of American households.

The median household income—the level at which half are above and half are below—rose 5.2%, or $2,798, to $56,516, from a year earlier, after adjusting for inflation, the Census Bureau said Tuesday.
The increase was the largest annual gain recorded since the yearly survey of incomes began in 1967, though it didn’t fully close the gap left by last decade’s recessions. Median household incomes stood 1.6% shy of the 2007 level, before the last recession took its toll, and 2.4% below the all-time high reached in 1999.

 The adjusting for inflation part is interesting.Whose definition of inflation? It's a safe bet they glossed over the rise in service inflation which has been serious over the past few years.  Is near negative or negative rates on your investment inflationary even if you choose to accept the phony inflation number put out by the Fed?

Then there is the good cop bad cop element. the good cop says it's the highest increase since the income surveys started in 1967, a claim designed to make you feel better and to put some trust in the status quo. The bad cop warns you, however, don't get complacent because there are still some speed bumps out there that might pop up. That's a plea for more patients because these geniuses have got your back covered.

Here's another example of good-bad cop.

The figures show how several years of robust employment growth, including 2.4 million people who gained full-time work last year, helped regain ground lost after an especially wrenching downturn, particularly for lower-income households. Longer hours, higher wages and lower inflation also have contributed to the improvement.

One question now is whether a sustained upturn is under way, or whether these gains are likely to peter out as the economy nears full employment, especially given a continuing slide in measured worker productivity.“It has been a long slog from the depths of the Great Recession, but things are finally starting to improve for many American households,” said Chris Christopher Jr., an economist at IHS Global Insight, a research firm.

Here your have the requisite expert quoted for reinforcement. Robust employment growth is laughable, maybe if you're talking hamburger flipper and bartender jobs. The oil industry, one known for higher paid workers, idled thousands of workers. Then roll out this gem, another gleam of hope after nine years of incompetent leadership. At the current pace, household incomes could fall off a bridge next year, too.

At the current pace, median household incomes could surpass their 2007 level next year, according to forecasts by IHS, concluding a lost decade for workers.

The official poverty rate in 2015 was 13.5%, down from 14.8% in 2014, the Census report said. That was still slightly higher than in 2008 and up from 11.3% in 2000. More than 43.1 million Americans were living in poverty last year. The poverty level was $24,257 for a family of four.

Meanwhile, the report showed fewer people lacked health insurance in 2015 than the previous year, largely because of expanded access through the Obama administration’s Affordable Care Act. The Census Bureau found 29 million people, or 9.1% of Americans, lacked health insurance in 2015. That is down from 33 million people, or 10.4% of the population, in 2014. The uninsured rate has dropped significantly since 2008, when millions more Americans lacked coverage.

There is some blatant misinformation in here and you can track it down if you care to. This data is based on "a survey...sent to around 95,000 households that are representative of the U.S. population," the Journal notes. So we're all supposed to jump up and down celebrating and by the way now vote  for the status quo. And that brings us to the timing and the tone of this propaganda piece.

Here's another point about this supposedly representative data. All those econometric models the gaggle of cellar-dwelling, highbrow economists use is also suppose to representative. This report even has the PC feminists' angle, a no need to even consider voting against the status quo if you're female. Among all full-time, year-round workers, women saw substantially larger earnings gains than men, posting an annual increase of 2.7%, compared with 1.5% for men. The increases narrowed the pay gap between women and men to the lowest level on record.



https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-CL561_INCOME_16U_20160913185111.jpg
 Finally, you have this telltale sign.

This is a big deal,” President Barack Obama said at a campaign stop for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia. “More Americans are working, more have health insurance. Incomes are rising. Poverty is falling.”

Somewhere along the line, we've seen these big deals of yours before, Mr. Out-Going President
zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-14/17th-obamacare-co-op-exits-due-hazardous-financial-conditions-only-6-left


















 

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