Through The Hype

In today's issue of Barron's Gene Epstein, one of their in house economic data jockeys, writing about October's employment report, concludes: "With the labor market at or near full employment, it's past time for the FOMC to start hiking interest rates back to normal levels."

The key two words in that conclusion is "past time."  Forget normal levels. Nobody knows what that really is. In the simplest terms, past time should tell you the Fed is already behind the inflation curve. That's just one of the reasons you can count on these bureaucrats to do the wrong thing at the right time.  So much talk has preceded this rate hike--just follow the mixed market reactions of on again, off again Asian investors of late--that most of any reaction other than the expected initial one is already in the market.

In fact, after a brief perhaps sharp slump, you might see a full steam ahead rally. Such are the vagaries of markets, especially those not tampered with by central bank bureaucrats. But danger always lurk in the shadows. One such is former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers who now wants to end Fed independence by ushering in his fellow academics and politicians to help things along.

There are at least two things wrong with that. First, it's a phony pretense that the Fed is independent. Equally suspect are those seemingly good Bureau of Labor Statistic numbers, especially right before this election. The second thing wrong with it is genetics. Homo sapiens. The people Summer would turn this nonsense over to are, last time we checked, humans. And humans are biased by nature and the world literally has hundreds, if not thousands of years of history and research to prove it.

The attempt by many, as is frequently the case, to put lip stick on a pig is nearly always present, but most especially after this global establishment rattling long recession. Elites are scared. Next Tuesday is another fear evoking event, quite possibly one only a Mother Theresa would believe will satisfy everyone.

As one commentator noted: "Once again it’s not the data per se that drives either forecast, rather, it’s the data vs. what the model predicted."  For a slightly different interpretation of these BLS numbers see mishtalk.com/2016/11/04/unemployment-4-9-establishment-survey-jobs-161000-employment.

In the meanwhile, look for the Fed to create opportunity for those astute enough to see through the hype. Inflation could surprise more than many think.

Not Being Civil

"Experiments in monetary policy were opening new frontiers," a columnist in the Financial Times noted today.

And so right he is, discussing central bank reactions to what became a persistent economic melt off. But experiments like the best laid plans of men and mice often go kaput. And so they have. Negative interest rates, contrary to perceived wisdom, play the same push-shove game like everything else in life. The push back from these expected savior rates are now marching onward, not like a bunch of Christian soldiers but more in tune with something much out of tune in the world today--common sense. Make the mistake of looking for any from the econometric slugs if you want to guarantee your disappointment in triplicates. The public gets it.

Forget a horse.The ruling elites would be wise to dump that adage to preserve their kingdom and go for some common sense. Disband your money oracle, central banks. It's a scary move, but one ultimately necessary if you want to survive in any form. The public gets it. You will as always hire thugs to do your fighting for you. But that's a bounce less ball today.

You have created this crisis and now seek to scatter a few crumbs to ease the tension. Put any chosen fob you want into office, this won't go away. Inflation is returning. Three central banks have told you so, the Fed, the BOJ and now the Bank of England. Their magic potions turned more feckless than a search for truth at the DNC. Take what they give you until they take it away again. Inflation is their new plan and hope to get out of this downward spiral. It won't work but your job is to make money and protect yourself from the damage they will cause. Democracy and other such words are just fancy terms, meaningless to this crowd.

Just as the Mexican peso has become a surrogate for how the U.S.election is going, Brexit has become an indicator for how hard the globalists are pushing and praying to overturn it. A WSJ editorial today celebrated the UK court decision calling for a vote by parliament on Brexit. This is the old putting the cart in front of the horse tactic. Parliament is there--so the phony line about any democracy goes--to serve the people. The people have spoken. That court decision needs to be vigorously challenged. The Journal writer shamelessly concludes with: "If the Court's ruling makes Leave advocates nervous,maybe it will induce them to get Brexit right."

This is in-your-face we know what's best elitist advocacy that makes a mockery of so-called free elections and voting. There are those who will stop at nothing to get their way. They should never surprise you. They want what they want. These are not isolated outbursts. They're clear signals that toes are being trampled. Voting is supposed to be a civil way to decide disagreements, at least that 's what the elites want you to buy. Looks as if these people are not being very civil.

These are some of the same folks who criticized Trump for saying he would let them know once the election results were in. Well, on Brexit they're in. So now you see where we are.

Mighty Harvard PC

 
More locker room talk, the stuff MSM and it's politically correct masters want to crucify Trump over.
This time it's prim and proper mighty Harvard.
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Harvard University has suspended its Division I men’s soccer team for the rest of the season after the school’s lawyers found a “scouting report” assessing the physical appearance of women players in vulgar terms was a widespread practice among players, including among those on this fall’s roster.

The men’s soccer team is currently ranked first in the Ivy League and will forfeit the final two games of the season and forgo any postseason play.

The school’s student newspaper, the Harvard Crimson, reported last week that the men’s 2012 soccer team rated women’s soccer recruits with narrative descriptions, a number scale, nicknames and potential sexual positions.

An interesting poll, assuming one could ever get an unbiased one, would be how many of these so-called future leader Harvard dudes will be voting for Hillary. You will also note she claims these action were not limited to a few individuals, meaning wide spread. So the Trump dude did years ago what many of the future elites are doing now. President Faust, apparently like most of the PC crowd, loves double standards when they work in her favor.wsj.com/articles/harvard-suspends-mens-soccer-team-over-sexually-explicit-rankings-of-women-players-

The article quotes Harvard President Drew Gilpin Faust expressing the expected PC shock and doling out the PC punishment all of us can expect in the near future if this madness isn't stopped. Bless her little PC heart, the president said: “I was deeply distressed to learn that the appalling actions of the 2012 men’s soccer team were not isolated to one year or the actions of a few individuals,” Ms. Faust said in a prepared statement.

She said she supports the athletic director’s decision to cancel the remainder of the season, and to engage the soccer team in “a systematic program of training.”

What's most likely going unreported is the women's soccer team is keeping similar notes on the men soccer players. But don't anyone tell the president because next she'll want to ban the presence of hormones on campus.

Overnight

The Nikkei came back from a holiday overnight and was down 1.93% while the Topix also yielded 2.18% earlier as the yen gained ground against the dollar trading at one point at 102.87 as investors express concerns about the upcoming election in the U.S. Mixed is a word that's becoming quite common when it comes to these Asian markets.  But many believe that once the U.S. election is in the books that will change.

Much of the yen's appeal comes from its status as a safe harbor currency and investors switch form risk on to risk off positions accordingly. In other markets, the ASX 200 fell to a four month low on the yen's strength and the Kospi was off 0.23%, the Hang Send index edged higher 0.19% and the two Chinese composites were both up slightly with the Shanghai tacking on 0.21% and the Shenzhen dding0.21%. Reuters reported: "Oil prices advanced during Asian hours on Friday, with U.S. crude futures up 0.16 percent at $44.73, while Brent added 0.17 percent to $46.43."  The key nonfarm payrolls report is due Friday. Economists polled by Reuters are looking for non-farm employment to have risen by 175,000 in October from 156,000 in September.

Gold renewed its recent acquaintance with $1,300 an ounce and could be getting to be a habit the yellow stuff traded above $1,300 an ounce on Friday, with safe-haven appetite buoyed by signs the U.S. presidential election is tightening just days before next week's vote. Spot gold XAU= was unchanged at $1,303.26 an ounce. U.S. gold futures were up about 0.1 percent at $1,304.30 per ounce. The Bank of England scrapped its plan to cut interest rates, which it said could now move up or down, and raised its forecasts for 2017 growth and inflation sharply due to the slide in sterling since Britain's vote to leave the EU and oil prices advanced overnight with U.S. crude futures up 0.16 percent at $44.73, while Brent added 0.17 percent to $46.43.

 

Corrupt Journalists

So much for Megyn Kelly and her boasts about being a serious journalist. And so much for MSM being objective at all. In this campaign we've had media allow editing of submitted texts and deals like this one from the mighty phony Megyn Kelly.

It doesn't matter whether its Fox or CNN or any of the other major media they are all corrupt and biased and need to be taken down. They like to hold the fee tof others to the flame.It's their time now.
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Dear Jen,

I know what I'm about to propose is very risky and will be instinctively viewed negatively on the first reaction. But because of the high advantages that I see, perfectly aware of the risks, I think this proposal should be considered.

I propose that the Secretary be on the Megyn Kelly File show for at least 30 minutes. I believe I can reduce the risks, since I know Megyn and Roger Ailes very well, by ensuring that the Secretary will have an opportunity to answer tough questions on emails and other issues without interruption.

In fact, I believe it is in the interest of Secretary Clinton as well as Fox for the questions to be tough, something we should not fear as long as she has an opportunity to answer. I know she will do well with adequate preparation, and especially after yesterday's excellent statement taking full responsibility for mixing personal an official business on a single email device.

I still believe the issue of the wiping out of uthe private server still needs to be dealt with – e.g., simply stating that was done primarily to protect personal privacy on personal emails but she made the mistake of mixing personal with official on the server because she was using a single device, and she should have been more transparent shortly after she left office.

This interview has the potential to be a ratings and media bonanza. I have confidence she would hit a political home run and have a massive audience to deliver her message without a filter.

Of course there is a risk that Megan will try to show how tough she can be, even tougher than on Trump. I am assuming the worst case on that risk. But if we have a guarantee, which I believe We will get, that she will have an uninterrupted chance to respond to every question, and we have time to prepare, I think this could be a major plus and even a game changer in the various negative narratives about the Secretary being largely inaccessible and sometimes testy with the media.

It would be so much better to be able to talk to you on the phone about this and discuss the pros and cons. If you are willing and available, what would be the best time in the best telephone number?

With warmest regards, and thanks as always for your consideration of my ideas,

Lanny

zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-03/wikileaks-releases-doj-fbi-huma-special-podesta-emails 

White House Racist

The current occupant is not the first racist to occupy the White House. History will attest to that. He is, however, the first African-American racist to quarter there. Yes, racists, like nearly everything else, come in all sizes, shapes and colors.

With his outrageous scare tactics the same ones he tried in the UK to defeat Brexit he is now spreading to the African-American community tells you just what his real elitist opinion of African-Americans is. He believes they're pretty ignorant, collectively enough so to believe his rantings. It also tells you just how frightened these elites are. Voters can smell blood in the status quo political waters  and they know it. That's their worst nightmare.

"We don't win this election, potentially, if we don't win North Carolina," he said during a campaign rally for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. "I hate to put a little pressure on you, but the fate of the republic rests on your shoulders. The fate of the world is teetering."

In his speech to voters in the Tar Heel State, the president emphasized how crucial North Carolina's 15 electoral votes are to Clinton's path to capturing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

Obama repeatedly laid into Trump, one sentence after another, saying that he had "no respect for working people," mocking his claim that he has a "good brain," and lambasting the Republican presidential nominee's plan to bar all Muslims from entering the US.
"What I can tell you is we can't afford a president who suggests that America should torture people, or that we should ban entire religions from our country," Obama said.

What's ironic is Obama and his thugs are trying to ban one of the religions African-Americans make up a huge membership--Christianity. No, we're not Christians, but we're telling you if your are, you'd better wake up. Fundamental Christians cost the radial left wing Democrats running this charade several elections. These are people with long, spiteful memories. Many of the refuges from the Middle East are being settled in rural areas of Red states, changing drastically the make-up of these towns and communities. This is no accident. Check it out. Don't take our word for it. These refuges are bringing their customs, ways and laws with them. See Germany or France.

This guy is nothing more than a community organizer, a Saul Alinsky protege,.hand picked by the elites to help usher in globalization and usher out your freedom of choice irrespective  of your race,creed or color. Hillary wrote senior paper in college on Saul Alinsky, a Communist community organizer in Chicago. In California mandatory vaccination is now law. There is no ifs, ands or opting out. You will be vaccinated, no matter that the vaccines don't work half the time, have impurities in them, or that strains of flu change with seasons. You will be vaccinated. They didn't hold a referendum; there was no election. Did anyone ask your opinion? You will be vaccinated. Look for it soon at a clinic near you wherever in the U.S. you live.

What many have a tough time seeing is this: It's not a leap of  Grand Canyon but a mere half-skip before these people are telling you what to eat, read, watch and think. Don't think so? Well, keep sleeping and you'll find out. The fate of the world is teetering alright because the masses around the globe are awaking to who the real crooks and polluters are.

Hollywood Rattled

If you think Hollywood is your friend better think again. But here is something that will rattle some of fascists in that crowd.
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Republican Donald Trump has a three-point lead in Rasmussen Reports’ White House Watch survey. Among voters who are certain how they will vote, Trump now has over 50% support.
The latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Trump leading Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 45% to 42%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has four percent (4%) support, and Green Party hopeful Jill Stein picks up just one percent (1%). Two percent (2%) like another candidate, and four percent (4%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton and Trump have been tied for the previous two days.  This is the first time Trump’s been ahead in the White House Watch in nearly two weeks, but it remains to be seen whether this is the start of a trend or a one-day hiccup.
Eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters say they are now certain how they will vote. Among these voters, Trump has a 10-point lead over Clinton – 53% to 43%. Johnson gets two percent (2%) and Stein one percent (1%). This is the first time any candidate has crossed the 50% mark. Among those who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 36%, Trump 36%, Johnson 22% and Stein six percent (6%).

Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 31 and November 1-2, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_nov3

Inflation Bites

Mentioning inflation is of late becoming more and more a topic it seems. We've mentioned it several times now since it's the least likely event many expect and the government has done everything in its power to hide it from you and the focus has been so long on deflation and slow growth.
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One month ago, Bridgewater's Ray Dalio warned the New York Fed that even a modest, 1% rise in rates, and thus inflation, would lead to trillions in losses and "trigger the worst price decline in bonds since the 1981 bond market crash." Now, it is the turn of Elliott Management's Paul Singer. In a letter to investors seen by CNBC's Kate Kelly, Elliott Management execs warned of essentially the same thing: that a rapid inflation is the $30 billion hedge fund's biggest concern in the current environment, and that such a spike would not only collapse bond prices, but potentially lead to a stock market crash.

                                    
                                                                                                                       
"This may seem like a strange thing to worry about under the current circumstances, but the tide toward inflation could turn rather abruptly," wrote the money managers in their Q3 letter dated Oct. 28. "If inflation starts accelerating to an annual rate of high single digits or greater, it will be quite difficult for the mix of strategies that Elliott favors to 'keep up.'"

However, sudden price hikes were only one of the Elliott team's worries, according to the recent letter. Another is Singer's biggest recurring fear: that the artificial market created by central bankers over the past 7 years will undergo rapid "renormalization." Lingering over Elliott's portfolio management is a persistent fear that central bankers — by collectively cutting interest rates 673 times since the financial crisis — have so upended the natural price levels of stocks, bonds and many other assets, "that the economy and markets are operating in denial of reality."

Paraphrasing from the latest Greenlight letter, sent on the same day, in which David Einhorn said that "we have central bankers who are determined to see flashing lights that aren’t there.... we are more than seven years into an economic recovery, yet central bankers behave as if we’re still in crisis", Elliott writes that "every sniffle is being treated by central banks as acute respiratory distress syndrome worthy of 'code-blues' and teams of frantic pumpers and fixers...  what this policy landscape has engendered is a widespread belief, or at least a strong suspicion, that stock and bond prices won't ever be allowed to go down in any meaningful way."

 zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-02/what-keeps-elliotts-paul-singer-night-spike-inflation-could-leat-market-crash

Overnight

Can you say sovereign bonds, gold, yen and Swiss franc three times real fast without missing a beat? If you can you're right on top of things in Asia as those things were the winners overnight. Call it rish off and uncertainty on.

With the Japanese market closed for a holiday it was just as well as other markets seemed to be more focused on the U.S. election and how close it's supposedly getting wit h all these WikiLeaks. As expected the Fed left rates unchanged, but left open the door for a December hike as Yellen stressed that inflation is on the rise.

All three major markets on Wall Street ended Wednesday down as uncertainty again prevailed.Reuters reported: "Another session of losses for the S&P would match the record for consecutive down days set in 2008." In the currency markets it was an up day for the Euro and a down one for the U.S. dollar as it faded against the yen to trade at 103.32 with the dollar index at 97.365 against its baskets of currencies,down from last week's high of 99.119. Spot gold XAU remained steady at $1,298.00 an ounce.

The Wall Street Journal noted that "oil prices extended their slump after data showed the biggest weekly U.S. crude surplus on record, the latest sign of the hurdles facing traders banking on higher prices. The supply data prompted investors to reduce expectations that two years of oversupply in the oil markets is coming to an end. U.S. prices immediately shed nearly $1 a barrel and losses spread into gasoline and diesel futures. U.S. crude futures fell $1.33, or 2.9%, to $45.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, fell $1.28 a barrel, or 2.7%, to $46.86 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both posted their seventh loss in eight sessions and lowest settlement since Sept. 27." The ASX 200 was off 0.48%, the Kospi down 0.23%, Hang Send lost 0.48%, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.29% and the Shenzhen Composite rallied 0.58%.

Purse Strings

We've written about the decline of print media for sometime. In some ways it's inevitable. In others, not so much.

The Wall Street Journal will debut a newly formatted version of its print edition starting Nov. 14, which will combine several sections and reduce the size of some coverage areas as the paper copes with an accelerating industrywide decline in print advertising.
Editor in chief Gerard Baker announced the changes to staff in a memo Wednesday. As a result, the paper will feature fewer pages with less space dedicated to coverage of arts, culture and New York news.

“All newspapers face structural challenges and we must move to create a print edition that can stand on a sound financial footing for the foreseeable future while our digital horizons continue to expand,” Mr. Baker wrote in the memo.

wsj.com/articles/the-wall-street-journal-to-combine-sections-to-cope-with-ad-decline-

As advertisers have moved and the Internet and social media have changed things this is to be expected. But there's another story here in some ways much more important. It too is about consolidation. As these take place it can lead to fewer and fewer choices for the consumer which leads to more and more price-fixing monopolies also. The upcoming mega-merger if it gets approved between AT&T-Time Warner is an example. Globalization with one world government is another, in case you can't see it.

But there is a positive side to these trim downs, consolidation of consumer purchasing power. Consumer purchasing power can be tossed around more readily and with bigger impact as many of these media firms are still dependent on advertisers,digital or otherwise. A clean up of media is well overdue. Any pretense of being an objective Fourth Estate ranks up there with Clinton lies, huge. For years the arrogance of big media centered on the premise that no one would take them on. That day is here. Look around. CNN's collaborating with the current  administration and trying to pass it off as objective reporting is now an open book. The Wolfman  is a con man as are his superiors.When it comes to corruption media can hold a candle to anyone.

The elites understand two things--power and money. In DC it's about power to which money is the venue to that power. Hello Wall Street. Hello Hollywood. The only decline the elites are concerned about is that of the status quo. Take care of the corrupt MSN and you will dent severely the status quo. Real bullets are not necessary because you already have the most powerful one, your purse strings.