UNWANTED VOLATILITY AHEAD?

Not everyone is pleased with central bankers around the globe. With the upcoming hint by the Fed's apparent new-found consensus, rates in the U.S. might be going up sooner than later. That could set off some volatility that investors are not prepared for. 

Here's what one UK fund manager recently said about central bank officials in general after his firm suffered loses in the volatility many believe had its root in central bankers fidgeting with monetary policy.  businessinsider.com/crispin-odey-market-is-a-battlefield-2016-3?

London-based hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, who runs $11 billion in assets, said this is "no longer an investment market but a battlefield."
In Odey's OEI Mac fund's February investment update, Odey slammed central banks for lowering or not raising interest rates.

"Several years of watching central banks watching central banks responding to ever falling productivity numbers by reducing interest rates have shown that they can effect asset prices with their actions, but that not only do they have almost no effect on economic activity, but they positively damage it," Odey said.

Markets need equilibrium to prosper. When the authorities have a problem, markets have a problem. We have been hurt by this rally in China-related companies, and indeed we reduced the gross and net positioning of the fund significantly in mid-March, to help reduce the short term volatility of the fund, but we remain convinced that China is in many ways in an even greater bind over policy than the developed world. By mid-March the fund was rising and falling by over 5% per day. At which point this was no longer an investment market but a battlefield. On the day that Draghi came out with his massive market support operation, the stock markets rose 2.5% and then closed down 1.5% on their lows. Imagine how painful it was to see the markets bounce the next day and celebrate his success. At that point I reduced the short book by a third and the long book by 10%.

Despite this strong rally, there is, aside from a pickup in government spending in China, little to support growth in the world economy. Everything from rising default rates in the booming auto financing industry to new lows in LNG, dry bulk shipping prices, points to slowdown everywhere.

OVERNIGHT

Asian stocks opened higher Monday, the WSJ reported, partly based on better U.S. recovery numbers Friday. The Fed has been giving various signals that an interest rate hike sooner rather than later might be in the cards if the numbers show what the Fed thinks are good enough to tolerate a hike without trashing the rebound.

Most Asian stock markets were higher on Monday after an upward revision in U.S. gross domestic prodMost Asian stock markets were higher on Monday after an upward revision in U.S. gross domestic product data stoked expectations for a steady recovery in the world’s largest economy Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average was recently up 0.8%. The Shanghai Composite Index was 0.3% higher. Singapore’s Straits Times index was up 0.1%. Meanwhile, stocks in Taiwan were 0.2% lower. 

Sinochem International Corp. offered to buy Singapore-listed Halcyon Agri Corp. in a deal that values the latter company at 450 million Singapore dollars (US$328.4 million). The deal will create the world’s largest listed rubber company. Halcyon shares will resume trading later today. On Friday, data showed that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter, compared with a previous estimate for 1% growth.

Another reason cited for the rebound in the Nikkei is March 31. The business year-end for most listed companies and investors buying shares before they go ex-dividend. Overall, though, trading was considered light.

SO WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS

So what's a "dead panda" bounce?

Well, if you're Chinese or following Chinese stocks it's the equivalent of the Western version of a "dead cat" bounce--a false or fake rally in equity prices. As it often is, in this case the Chinese official version of the old American cavalry riding to the rescue.

Officials there have been riding to the rescue of their currency, the yuan, and equities since investors began glimpsing China's growth was tanking not just stalling. See commodities markets.Much of this centered on what others feel is bad monetary policy based on heading political and social upheaval off at Disgruntled Pass.

Disgruntlement's opposite is confidence. And authorities the globe over always try to inject a dose or two when their natives get frisky .In China that's a lot of natives. After shutting off speculative margin and short-selling accounts, officials there pulled out a popular political hat trick--reverse course, reinstating both for the most part, also known in some parlors as a put option or safety net.

Chinese property prices are skyward bound, aided by looser government bank lending policies some estimate total $5 trillion. Talk abounds about few if any arrows are left in China's monetary quiver. Some pundits are saying leverage is all that's left to keep this bubble from going snap, crackle and pop. If true, they say, it will only postpone but in the end make worse the inevitable.

If one learns anything about financial markets overtime it's this: Whenever there's financial leveraging, there's economic jawboning. See ECB President Mario Draghi. When officials don't like what messes they've created, they turn to jawboning. It's their way of showing you just how much they value your intelligence.

Blame is another. Officials love the shifting sands of blame so long as they don't blow their direction. So the shackles get placed on those who smell the trouble and seek to takes their digs elsewhere. It's called capital flight. So, too, just as heroes need villains or why have any heroes, officials blame  speculators, the devil's gift to incompetent officials.

Much of this centers around currency reserves. So keep your eyes there. The Chinese want a strong dollar and a weaker yuan, but have been forced to change course in their attempt to ward of short-sellers and curb capital flight. It appears that the Federal Reserve gang in Washington now want a stronger dollar.

 So we'll see what happens.

FOOLS KNAVES AND STARS

There is a term starting to pop up again in the economic jargon not popular since the 1980s, stagflation.

If you lived it you know it. If you didn't you soon might.

In short, it's about higher prices and slow growth. When the two meet at the crossroads like they did then it spells trouble. With the global central bank craze for zero to negative interest rates in the persistent absence of growth, some feel the economic furniture is being arranged for just such a party.

After all there's a lot on money on the loose as cash stores pile up. Take a look at Japan. Just today in the WSJ you have a picture of Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President, Robert Kaplan, quoted: "We want to try to normalize [interest rates] as fast as we can." If there is a more abstract term in the English language than normalize, we haven't heard it.

When bureaucrats start talking normalization hopefully you have one of those construction hard hats nearby. What the gist of Kaplan's point is the Fed's moving toward a consensus about the need to hike rates. Forget the Ides of March. There's hardly anything more dangerous than the Ides of a Bureaucratic Consensus.

Now Kaplan like many of his brethren has the requisite credentials that ought to scare you, Harvard and Goldman Sachs connections, not to mention author of several how to manage books. He supposedly, according to the Journal, looks as if he's about to roll over on interest rates. Kaplan replaced Richard Fisher, a known "hawk" who criticized the Yellen crowd's easy-money schemes, calling them financial heroin. One of the attractions of Trump is he bypassed Harvard or they bypassed him. Either way it's a blessing in disguise.

The Journal reports, and here's another scary part,"Ms Yellen has adopted and built on the consensus-oriented style of her predecessor, Ben Bernanke. Despite signs of division in recent months, the institution is largely in agreement on the likely path of rates."

Kaplan spent 23 years at Goldman Sachs before leaving in 2006. The path between Goldman Sachs and global central banks is a long and inglorious one. The Journal notes that Kaplan agrees with Yellen that inflation is not on an upward trend. You have to keep in mind that economists in general and central bankers in particular are not known for their predictive prowess.

Meanwhile, on the stagflation issue, beware of commentators who say such and such an indicator is not jiving with past stagflation indicators. They also cite the two best performing sectors now, utilities and telecoms, both of which are really surrogate bonds. During the good old stagflation days of the 1980s many utilities were yielding 13-14%. So were bank CDs and 30-year Treasuries. Thirty years mortgage rates averaged around 15%.

The idea that Treasury Inflation Protection bonds today are yielding such anemic returns doesn't jive with the recent run-up in gold prices is another point: Gold, as gold haters love to cite, doesn't yield anything and that's true. But the cost of carrying that insurance given the anemic TIP yields is negligible.

So what's the point since we're nowhere near that now. Just this: Only fools, knaves and dolts believe the stars have to align exactly the same for a repeat performance.

DEFLATION FIGHTING JAPANESE STYLE

With the exception perhaps of politicians there's hardly another group with more jokes floating about than economists.That's just one common characteristic they share. The second one is all those jokes are well deserved.

The economic rage globally since the last recession has been who can show their fighting deflation the hardest and the most. That could be an annual award with the requisite event like the Oscars. When did declining prices become so villainous? When MSM lead by a bunch of the Dismal Science crowd picked up the meme.

As for that award, Japan might be a good choice to inaugurate the festivities as noted here from mishtalk.com/2016/03/25/economists-increasingly-worried-about-people-having-too-much-cash.

Household assets up. Savings up. Debt down.

The fact of the matter is Japan has essentially forced its citizens to save simply to cover the largest debt-to-GDP ratio of any large, developed country.

Q: Why did the debt-to-GDP ratio rise so much?

A: Deflation fighting efforts arising from economist’s worry over falling prices.

Given the hyper-fear of falling prices, I have to ask: Has anyone died from it?

OVERNIGHT

What many interpreted as positive U.S. economic data on the jobs market drove Japanese shares higher overnight, media sources report.

The Nikkei was up 0.7%, the Kospi up fractionally at 0.1% and Taiwan, where officials just cut interest rates, was fractionally higher too, up 0.04% whereas the Shanghai Composite started the day down. Many viewed the U.S. data as signaling a recovery and one U.S, central banker added some umph by saying the next rise in interest rates might be sooner than later.

Prior to these results markets were figuring in the possibility of  the U.S. heading back into recession. So the prospect for higher rates and some inflation bodes well for most Asian stock markets many believe. Like it or not, this is just another way of inflating your way out of trouble since a stronger dollar help Asian exporters. Weaker currencies should translate into dumping more goods on Americsn consumers, making much of the globe rejoice.

The Nikkei rose 1.7% for the week Friday.

AT YOUR OWN PERIL

They call it "The Republican Predicament" as if it's new or unique to this election.

It isn't. But that's what the on-the-ropes mainstream Republican party wants voters to believe.
More on that later.

These people love to cite polls but only those they like and those that buttress their point. So in their less-than-up-front attempt to derail Trump, they cite a recent poll supposedly saying their last straw of a hope, Ohio Governor John Kasich, is the only one who can beat Hillary head-to-head in November.

Though they do admit in a rare flash of honesty that polls change, they claim she is a weak candidate. That's pure opinion and nothing more. She'll carry California and New York in the blink of a big yawn. Kasich would go over in California like an overcast, cloudy day at the beach. His crowds would be even smaller. He's still trying to find charisma in Webster's.

With the exception of the well-despised Reagan, the last candidate the Grand Old Party had with charisma was Abraham Lincoln. The point here being: if you have the conviction to vote Trump, vote it. If you don't, vote it. But whatever you do don't stand idle or voiceless if at the convention they try some shenanigans to stifle your voice assuming he garners the necessary delegates.

Like it or not Trump is playing by the house rules and that's what irritates them so much. He besting them at their own Party concocted game. That would anger a lot of preachers if there are any left.

Here's one of their brilliant paragraphs: "Our point is, after the last three months, whoever wins the nomination will inherit a divided GOP and have a reduced chance if winning." (What's new. The GOP has been divide at least going back to Goldwater.) This again is part and package of their arrogance and contempt. They think they're only ones who can read

The editorialist concludes with this piece of work. "Then again, if the nomination goes to an open convention (You can almost hear the writer praying in background.), and if neither Mr. Cruz nor Mr. Trump can get a majority, perhaps (On that perhaps we thought we heard the sound of some Rosary beads.), the GOP delegates will want to consider a nominee who can beat Mrs. Clinton"

If they had that don't you think they would have rolled him or her out by now.

Here is his final gem. "Sounds crazy, we know, but isn't the purpose of a political party to win elections?"

Yes, it is but not by steamrolling the system because you dislike the guy who won playing by your rules, not to mention the millions of voters, like them or not, who voted their choice.

Maybe it's time, like many are suggesting, for the Grand Old Party to be honored with a grand old New Orleans style funeral. If that happens, it ought not be that long before a similar procession takes place for the Donkey crowd.

And that's really to millions of decent Americans--call them whatever names you want--what this election is really about. Drop the ball at your own peril.

BAD GOOD OR JUST IS?

The hilarity of this presidential campaign bust up seems to have few bounds. And we're just getting started. Forget HBO or "Walking Dead," we can't wait to see a Trump versus Hillary insult banger. Pay attention all you stand up comics. There's sure to be some great material there. And it's free.

The MSM hypocrites in their over-the-top disdain for Trump keep accusing him of acts "beneath the dignity of a presidential candidate." Man, you gotta love that. What about the so-called dignity of people in their phony Fourth Estate structure?  Editorial page scribblers and inconsequential economists who want to be.

Do you think Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren's recent tweets, provoked or otherwise, was beneath the dignity of someone in her position?  We do. Apparently, the over 3,000 people who stated on her site they loved it didn't.

These are people who have, like Trump supporters or not, unleashed tons of harsh epithets at Trump followers. The list of uncivil and vile names is continuous. And without any objective evidence except their public support for their choice. They don't know these people. They can't prove anything. It's the worst kind of guilt by association judging.

Voters vote their preference supposedly for lots of reasons and sometimes for just one. They hardly support a candidate's every cause, a fact these elitists in MSM know. But fear and desperation bring many things with them. And one can smell the fear and feel the desperation.

Trump continues to catch flak for his run-ins with Fox News personality Megan.Kelly. Let's be fair. If she came on television with any more makeup caked on she's be a package of pancake mix at Wal Mart. Now, the critics will jump up and down saying this is anti-feminist. It isn't. She's a public figure, not entitled to the same rights and speech protections as private citizens. She is also an attorney, most likely being in the media she is more than aware of these legal differences and the cases that have decided them.

Is it a statement of fact that she appears in what many would call excessive make-up? Well, there's the rub. Who gets to define excessive make-up? Well, certainly not MSM and that's precisely what they're trying to do here as they do in every election.

As a WSJ elitist wag recently wrote: "Voters are better at signaling dissatisfaction than thinking clearly about solutions," to which we have two responses. It's nice for him to decide what we're capable of and have you tried to get in touch with your elected officials lately?

His next comment is right out of a high school civics class. "Democracy's great virtue is not the wisdom of voters' every judgment but the fact that an election is always coming, so can voters react against choices that are not working." This one is almost too cute for a response, but if that's case, sir, why are you and your cronies trying to deny Trump voters the right to exercise their opinion against what they believe is clearly not working?

Now Trump is catching further media hell because he ran a picture of Cruz' wife next to his own after a PAC committee  supposedly associated with Cruz ran one of Trump's wife posing semi-nude. Cruz is a big boy. He claims he didn't run it. But he knows the rules: the buck stops irrespective with the big dogs, something he's pretending to be. Cruz might not of signed off that photograph, but our guess is he knows who did.

Both sides are claiming to be pure.The truth is both are about as pure as the left over snow from a week-old snow storm. There's bigger truth here. This is a deeply, deeply divided nation and the chasm is growing. Unlike MSM, we'll leave it up to you and your vote to decide if that's bad or good or just is.

For the nth time we will state again: We don't have pony in this race. But for spectators the entertainment value is undeniable.

OVERNIGHT

Little changed best describes the Nikkei in overnight trading as investors await U.S. data about he health of the economy and what might be the course of future U.S. interest rates. The Fed has been considering two more possible rate hikes in 2015, so investors seem a bit jumpy until they can garner a clearer picture.

The Nikkei was up 1%, trading slightly above 17,000 ahead of Japan's inflation report. A weaker yen is what officials want, but so far that's not been the case after they cut rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. is set to jobless claims, data that always attracts much attention. Also on tap are durable goods orders. If favorable it would support the case for the Fed raising rates sooner than later.

Higher interest rates would support a stronger dollar.The dollar last traded at 112.65 ff its recent six-day high of 112.905, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that China's falling interest rates are impacting Chinese insurers.

Behind the dismal performance of China’s largest insurer is a punishing reality: life in a low-rate world.

China Life Insurance Co.’s net profit for 2015 fell short of expectations, rising a measly 7.7% compared with consensus targets of 16.5% growth, according to FactSet. Meanwhile, profit at its health-insurance business fell 82.9% year over year. The company attributed most of the fall to changes in actuarial assumption for discount rates on its insurance contracts.
The state-run life insurer’s relatively old-school business model and its focus on traditional policies make it more sensitive to China’s falling interest rates. That means when it looks to determine the amount to set aside today as reserves to pay out to customers in the future, the number is a lot larger.

So low rates don't just strangle retirees and those living on fixed incomes. But don't tell that to any central bankers.

TAKE ME OUT TO THE SECRET PAYOFF

You gotta love this campaigning season. It's more refreshing than a frosty glass if iced tea on a sultry southern afternoon.

As a recent piece on Zerohedge.com so correctly put it: "...a bunch of stuffy establishment conservatives" are secretly gluing their heads together to try to stop the Trumpster. Their MO is really creative, run negative ads.

One is the family who reportedly owns the Chicago Cubs. Wow! Maybe some Trumpster supporters, a group the same WSJ recently referred  to as "lower middle class Republicans" in northern swing states in middle America, might want to think about boycotting the Cubs. But publicly not secretly.

This is how money runs American politics and it's rampant on the left and right. The left has it's Soroses and climate change dandies and the right these people. But you can bet your next raise on the job, if you ever get one, there are plenty more in the secret middle. Years ago something called payola entered the American lexicon. Disc jockeys got paid under the table to play the songs of certain artists.

That's what this is--political payola. It's sneaky, dishonest and it's contemptuous. The same WSJ recently published an article stating reasons why Trump, should he even get the nomination, can't beat Hilary come November. One of the major ones cited--get this--is Trump received less money from Wall Street than Hilary.

But the Journal, probably thinking it strengthened their point, left no room for guesstimating. They published frank, hardcore numbers. Dollar signs. What Hilary accepted 90 percent of America would love to have to retire in sailboat-Caribbean island luxury on. Trump's take wouldn't cover the cost of a five-day stay in New York City.

 Both sides routinely bus in paid supporters to buttress crowd size to sway the public during these jokes called presidential debates. And MSM is an implicit participator in the charades. A Trump versus Hilary runoff, almost assured to be a vitriolic one, would conjure up more MSM advertising revenue than their executives, on or off their staples of anti-anxiolytics, could ever dream up. They're probably counting their bonuses right now. Make the mistake of assuming that MSM has even a half-butt cheek of objectivity in these messes and you will live to rue the day.

Here's quote about the Cubs owners and more from the piece.
Earlier this month in “GOP Leaders, Tech Execs Plot Against Trump At Secret NeoCon Island Meeting,” we discussed the American Enterprise Institute’s annual World Forum, an event held on Sea Island, Georgia.

It’s a notoriously secretive affair and is off limits to the press. “We can’t even get a snow update,” Bloombergjoked last year.

Among those who have contributed: Warren Stephens and his brother, Jackson "Steve" Stephens Jr., Paul Singer, and the Ricketts family. Here’s more:

Warren Stephens and his brother, Jackson "Steve" Stephens Jr., gave a total of $3.5 million last month to two of these groups, according to filings Sunday with the Federal Elections Commission, on top of $500,000 last year.

The filings show only one other family, the Ricketts clan of Omaha, Nebraska, that's a bigger funder of the stop-Trump campaign, having given $5 million since January. Other backers of the effort revealed in the filings were Paul Singer, the New York hedge-fund manager, who gave $1 million; and William Oberndorf, a San Francisco investor, who gave $500,000.

During the current race, Stephens has handed out total of $300,000 to super-PACs supporting Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Chris Christie, all of whom have since dropped out.

Most of the Stephens' giving in recent years has been to a super-PAC run by Club for Growth, a powerful conservative group that pushes for limited government and lower taxes, and which has been one of the biggest spenders against Trump.

None of this is lost on Trump. He has responded with his own twitter to the Ricketts.

"Sometimes I just can't comment other than, I have an active family who cares deeply about our country," Pete Ricketts said in February. "My family is very politically active on both sides of the aisle and so we have folks that get involved in different things. I'm not involved with what everyone's doing."

"Our Principles PAC, a group set up to highlight Mr. Trump’s past liberal positions, took in $4.8 million last month, with a roster of donors that shows it has significantly expanded beyond the Ricketts family, which provided the group’s early funding," The New York Times wrote late Sunday night in a piece that carries the snarky title "Donald Trump Is Finally Uniting Top Republican Donors." Here's a bit more color from The Times:

Mr. Stephens and his brother also gave $2.5 million last month to a super PAC connected to the Club for Growth, a free-market activist group that was one of the first outside organizations to take on Mr. Trump. All told, the group, whose members met last week to discuss how to escalate their efforts against Mr. Trump, raised $4 million in February, three times as much as it had raised any other month this election cycle.

Richard Uihlein, an Illinois shipping-supplies manufacturer and conservative activist, who backed Gov. Scott Walker’s campaign last year, gave the Club for Growth $500,000. Several other donors with ties to Republican also-rans gave large contributions as well, including Richard Gaby, who gave $50,000 to a super PAC backing former Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, and Robert Arnott, a California-based investor who has poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into groups backing Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.

Its a ballgame alright, but it ain't about peanuts and crackerjacks. It's about keeping you and me in our places and ditto for the status quo.