We bring you two quotes about this stumbling, bumbling, incompetent Janet Yellen led Federal Reserve Bank.
We are now quickly reaching the area where not just the Fed but central banks in general are being gauged for what they really are and have been, unnecessary middle meddlers for the most part hurting not helping peoples' lives. And that brings up an excellent question: Have they out lived their usefulness?
This is not an issue that should be left up to a bunch of distant, indifferent elitist bureaucrats or academics or Washington think tank dwellers. Or a gaggle of deplorables from Hollywood.
Actually, scratch three months: just
one month ago on
the day of this year's Jackson Hole conference, when asked by Steve
Liesman what his "judgment on asset bubbles", the Fed's biggest dove
James Bullard said that "
I think we are on the high side of fairly valued, I could see the process getting away from us, maybe tech stocks, maybe others"
even as he qualified that "the Fed model has nothing about asset price
bubbles, most models don't have anything about that", and as a result
no Fed model ever forecasts asset bubbles, which incidentally explains
why the traditional side-effect of Fed policy over the past decade has
been, drumroll, asset bubbles.
* * *
Fast forward
to this past week's FOMC's press conference,
when in a direct question if Yellen is worried she is causing asset
bubbles "because of prolonged low interest rates", suddenly all concerns
- those voiced by the Fed two years ago and three months ago, as well
as those of James Bullard as recently as a few weeks, magically
vaporized, and were replaced by this: "
we routinely monitor asset valuations... nobody can know for sure what type of valuation represents a bubble."
So, which is it: are valuation metrics "substantially stretched", and
have "price to earnings ratios for equities increased to a level well
above their median", a process which risks "getting away from us", with
asset bubbles emerging in "tech stocks, maybe others"... or as Yellen
just said, "
nobody can know for sure what valuation represents a bubble"?
* * *
Whatever the answer, we are confident that once Janet Yellen is confident that valuations
do represent a bubble, she will promptly advise the investing public to sell.
twitter.com/StockBoardAsset/status/779001298595123201
There is no simple, painless solution. The
world has to reduce debt, shrink the financial part of the economy, and
change the destructive incentive structures in finance. Individuals in
developed countries have to save more and spend less. Companies have to
go back to real engineering. Governments have to balance their books
better. Banking must become a mechanism for matching savers and
borrowers, financing real things. Banks cannot be larger than nations,
countries in themselves. Countries cannot rely on debt and speculation
for prosperity. The world must live within its means.
There is now almost $16 trillion worth of
sovereign debt trading with a negative yield. Last week the credit bubble entered new territory with two euro zone issuers of corporate debt,
Germany’s Henkel and France’s Sanofi, becoming the first private firms to
sell negative-yielding non-financial corporate bonds in euros. This may, just may, happen to mark the top of the great bond bull run that started as far back as the early 1980s.
By Friday of last week, the implications of an ugly slide across bond
and stock markets may have led some fund managers and traders to soil
themselves, or suffer heart problems, or both. By a happy
coincidence, however, Henkel makes Persil laundry detergent, and Sanofi
makes treatments for cardiovascular disease. So any affected “investors”
dumb enough to have bought those guaranteed loss-makers and then
suffered immediate regret don’t have to look too far for a remedy.
Doubts Emerge in Global Markets
“
Taper Tantrum II” would appear to have arrived. The
sell-off in bond markets last week was universal.
US Treasuries, UK Gilts, German Bunds, Japanese JGBs, all declined.
Japanese bonds are suffering more than most. Kevin Buckland, Wes Goodman
and Shigeki Nozawa for
Bloomberg report:
One
of the pillars of 2016’s record-setting global bond rally is starting
to buckle. Japan’s sovereign debt is suffering its worst rout in 13
years, handing investors bigger losses over the past two months than any
other government bonds amid speculation the Bank of Japan plans to
change its asset-purchase strategy. The reversal is spurring concern the
second-largest debt market is the vanguard for a broader selloff. …
“The impact of the BOJ’s stimulus is that the bond markets worldwide are
becoming one market,” said Chotaro Morita, the chief rates strategist
at … SMBC Nikko Securities Inc., one of the 21 primary dealers that
trade directly with the central bank. “If there’s a reversal of policy,
you can’t rule out that it would roil global debt.”
Central Banks’ Abuse of Trust
Yuval Harari, in his excellent history of mankind,
Sapiens,
points out that just about everything in the infrastructure of the
modern economy is either some kind of narrative or myth. The buildings
on Wall Street and in the Square Mile may be solid enough, but the rest
of the fabric of our financial system is dependent on trust or
collective belief rather than the material and the “real”.
The powers that be, many who live and regurgitate daily within the confines of places like the Financial Times, the Washington Post and others, keep blaming austerity for the current problems, pushing more for fiscal pump priming now that their silly monetary policies have proved as ineffective as a pack of condoms left unopened in one's wallet.
What austerity?