Tuesday, April 22, 2014

MARKET OVERVIEW



Our bulletin board take on the market.

--next entry point if S&P 500 pulls back to its 200-day moving average around 1,700 level.

--earnings aren't great, but not horrible either. Coke (KO) and GE, two laggards in this market, rallied after reporting. Look for more of the same.

--big caps (value) still rule and have a ways to go

--starting the year energy was supposed to be a no-show. but check out the gas prices over the past 5 weeks at your local pump or the futures contracts, up 1.1% earlier this week and up 11% so far this year. Gasoline futures are a leading not lagging indicator 

--we continue to be long energy as US refineries export more overseas. Media obsessed with fantasy of lower energy prices...delay of Canadian pipeline no accident.

--bond yields still no threat to equities and won't be until 10-year bond yields 3.5%

--joe public still scared and out of the market, thinking real estate safer investment. JP won't be back in until froth on the beer much greater.

--higher interest rates when they hit will help financials

--cyclicals, materials look good here as Fed gets further behind the curve.

--while back warned about number of IPOs hitting market, many with no earnings. Much of water cooler-cocktail palaver at time about these IPOs printing money for investors.

--this bull market now 61 months young, longest in recent years 64 months, only '82-'87 and '96-2000 longer...difference is rates going up then and Feds pulled the punch bowl from the party.

--that will happen here too, but the market will see it first.

--10% from here puts S&P near 2,000 mark, quite doable before pullback.

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