The rally in the stock market continues, but where's the volume and the leadership?
The DJIA closed today up 83 points, or 0.6%, at 14,539.14, a new closing high on lower than average volume. Since March 1, daily volume has been declining, not particularly a positive sign for the market in general, some analysts believe.
Leaderships begs another question. So far it's been mostly defensive issues leading the parade. Also conspicuously absent, according to many traders, is Joe Retailer. There are few, if any real signs, retail investors are jumping on board.
The S&P P 500 also rallied, closing at 1,563.23, just points from its all-time high set in 2007. Advance-declines on the NYSE were 2:1.
Tomorrow should prove interesting going into the weekend.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
ANOTHER VIEW
Editor's note: We don't have a greyhound in the race mentioned in Budget story nor do we know anyone connected with the Empire organization. We just bumped into the story in our wide readings as we search for solid, factual information to pass along to our readers, many of whom we're sure travel as we do. You can decide for yourselves.
BUDGET CAR RENTAL SERVICE
http://www.empirepage.com/37-editors-blog
THE RED AND THE BLUE LIVES
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2013/03/abortion-laws-south
THE WEALTH EFFECT: IS IT SHRINKING?
http://www.money.cnn.com/2013/03/13/news/economy/stocks-housing-wealth-effect/index.html
ASIAN STOCKS EX-JAPAN DOWN
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-stocks-rise-as-rest-of-asia-lower-2013-03-13?pagenumber=2
PUNDIT SAYS BEWARE CHINA
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/14/marc-faber-says-investors-should-fear-chinas-colossal-credit-bubble/
Exclusive: Chinese firm puts millions into U.S. natural gas stations
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/14/us-enn-lng-usa-idUSBRE92D09Y20130314
Capitalizing on the Dow’s unloved rallyhttp://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/14/capitalizing-on-the-dows-unloved-rally?ref=hp
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
MARKET WRAP
Well, they did it again.
The DJIA closed up for the ninth consecutive day, the best run since late 1996. Much of the uproar centered on better-than-expected February retail sales. Credit the consumer, but don't leave out the Fed with its bogus "wealth effect."
This is exactly what the Fed wants: Get the natives feeling better about themselves and their future via housing prices and construction or voodoo if necessary. That's what some believe the Fed's current MP is: A little of this, a little of that and a lot of voodoo.
The DJIA eked out a gain, closing at 14,45.28, up 0.04% while the S & P 500 inched closer to it all-time high closing at 1,554.52.
The nine day streak is the best since the 10-day run in November 1996. The thing to keep in mind is the longer the run goes on the more likely the upcoming pullback--and there will be one--might be steeper than most expect.
The DJIA closed up for the ninth consecutive day, the best run since late 1996. Much of the uproar centered on better-than-expected February retail sales. Credit the consumer, but don't leave out the Fed with its bogus "wealth effect."
This is exactly what the Fed wants: Get the natives feeling better about themselves and their future via housing prices and construction or voodoo if necessary. That's what some believe the Fed's current MP is: A little of this, a little of that and a lot of voodoo.
The DJIA eked out a gain, closing at 14,45.28, up 0.04% while the S & P 500 inched closer to it all-time high closing at 1,554.52.
The nine day streak is the best since the 10-day run in November 1996. The thing to keep in mind is the longer the run goes on the more likely the upcoming pullback--and there will be one--might be steeper than most expect.
ANOTHER VIEW
STOCKS UP FOR NINTH STRAIGHT DAY
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/13/us-markets-stocks-idUSBRE92A07T20130313
HOLLOW BOOM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2013/03/13/wall-streets-hollow-boom-with-small-business-and-startups-lagging-employment-wont-pick-up/
US HAS STOPPED ACCUSING CHINA OF MANIPULATION
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/13/qe-gun-boat-diplomacy-toward-chinas-currency?ref=hp
STRAIGHT AHEAD
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100549224
FED POLICY LIMITED
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704836204578358342392128724.html?mod=BOL_hps_highlight_top
IS THE RALLY GETTING READY?
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11868337/1/cramer-dow-rally-is-on-borrowed-time.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/13/us-markets-stocks-idUSBRE92A07T20130313
HOLLOW BOOM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2013/03/13/wall-streets-hollow-boom-with-small-business-and-startups-lagging-employment-wont-pick-up/
US HAS STOPPED ACCUSING CHINA OF MANIPULATION
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/03/13/qe-gun-boat-diplomacy-toward-chinas-currency?ref=hp
STRAIGHT AHEAD
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100549224
FED POLICY LIMITED
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704836204578358342392128724.html?mod=BOL_hps_highlight_top
IS THE RALLY GETTING READY?
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11868337/1/cramer-dow-rally-is-on-borrowed-time.html
TO CATCH THE FEW
One of the basic contentions we've spent a lot of time talking and writing about over the years is how governments seem to love punishing the many to catch the few.
You see it just about everywhere. Too big to fail is just another variation.
They're more examples than we could possibly go into here. But gun control is an obvious one. Another is punishing the prudent to rescue the irresponsible. Taxing the productive to prop up the slothful is still another.
A recruiter, no not a military but academic one, strolls into a high school senior class in early May and says he would like all the students who have gotten straight As for four years to raise their hands. Five do and he directs them to a corner in the back of the room.
He then does the same thing with all the students who earned straight Bs for four years. They are told to join the straight A students. Then all the ones who did the same with straight Cs for four years.
Nine students remain, six who have earned straight Ds for four years and three who managed only Ds and Fs for four years.
At this point the recruiter smiles, rubs his hands together and announces to the nine: "This is the day you've been working so hard for these last four years. We're going to reward you nine with free four-year scholarships to the Ivy League college of your choice. "
Now we didn't see the study ourselves, but an acquaintance we're told who follows such things closely informed us he did. Eight of the nine selected Harvard.
A lot of folks when talking First Amendment politics think its greatest feature is the guaranteed rights of freedom of speech, assemblage and religion. Sorry, but that's just wrong. Dumb wrong.
The greatest thing about the First Amendment is it guarantees one the right to do stupid stuff. Period. Think here of folks in New York City who choose to spend their own money gulping down extra-large sodas.
Judging from what history we've been able to study, people have been doing dumb and stupid stuff for centuries. Outlawing that right is akin to debasing a language or a currency.
Consider for a minute electing Joe Biden Vice President for two terms and Jimmy Carter president for one. Or George W. and Ulysses S. Grant. Or in California where those folks elected The Terminator twice and followed that with some warmed-up Brown hash.
Some folks would no doubt toss in Herbert Hoover and we'd have to somewhat agree. A lot of folks who don't know their history don't know he was the original originator of The New Deal, a pretty dumb idea in itself.
"There is no reason to assume that...the risks anticipated by each must be deemed equal in value, " as Daniel Bernouilli, a Swiss mathematician and physicist noted in the 18th Century.
That's a to-each-his own statement. The other half of that equation, utility, is intuitive and individual, a fact that punishing the many to catch a few clearly violates.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
ANOTHER VIEW
Can Somebody Please Tell Congress
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130312121851.htm
Republicans Cough Up 10-Year
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/12/us-usa-fiscal-ryan-idUSBRE92B02E20130312
Currency Wars Matter
http://www.businesswithoutborders.com/industries/finance-industries/currency-wars-cast-a-shadow-on-global-trade/
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130312121851.htm
Republicans Cough Up 10-Year
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/12/us-usa-fiscal-ryan-idUSBRE92B02E20130312
Currency Wars Matter
http://www.businesswithoutborders.com/industries/finance-industries/currency-wars-cast-a-shadow-on-global-trade/
SNAPPY HEADLINES
Fads come and go.
One of the latest, especially in the news and advertising business, is stories or headlines like this: "Five Exercises You Should Never Do," or "The 10 Worse Foods For Your Left Great Toe."
Here's a recent one we came across and legions of similar ones are floating around out there: "Six Sexual Moves Celebrities Enjoy To Ramp Up Their Sex Lives." Now this one, you got to know, has it all--celebrities, sex, ecstasy. If celebrities are doing it, it must be above the rim.
Here're a few picked at random from the investing world, "Six Big Myths About 529 Plans," "10 Tax Breaks For Investors," "10 Best Mutual Funds" and "4 Ways The Market Could Surprise You." The writer of this last one, I'm pretty sure, plagiarized the idea from one of my old girlfriends.
If you don't want to miss articles like that one and others pay more attention at the checkout counter or to your evening news instead of squeezing the avocados so long at the grocery.
As any blogger who's bothered to look knows, content maybe king but snappy headlines is what's it's all about. That's just one of the many ways fledging bloggers hoping to make it big are advised to fuel their online businesses.
Here's another recent example from one of the world's leading newspapers that takes itself way too seriously, the Los Angeles Times: "The Five Biggest Lies About Entitlement Programs."
When you go to the store to buy food do you go to buy food you don't like? How about restaurants? We've written before about those red and blue election maps that pop up every four years. We pointed out there are only two types of historians, red and blue.
The same holds for MSM. The only difference is MSM may be a bit more subtle about it, kind of like Joe Biden or Karl Rove. In the investment world it's the bulls and the bears, the red and the blue. Same story, just a different arena. Taking stocks higher so you can then short them is not uncommon anymore than pushing them lower so you can buy them cheaper is.
Level playing fields exist but not in this dimension. Recently, the WSJ featured an article about the world's oldest investor, a successful, 107 year-old guy who still reads two newspapers and several magazines a day and practices pretty much a buy-and-hold strategy laden with quality-type companies.
When asked why, he said: "Because I want to know more about the companies I'm buying than the guy does who's selling."
Even the dumbest stock broker knows about front running, a law against putting on a position ahead of your clients on a stock you're hawking. The regulators' answer is full disclosure, as in we don't currently own or have a position in this equity.
Most sports today except a few like boxing have replay cameras. One boxing wag, a noted former boxing judge, recently blurted on national television this gem: "Referees are trained if they didn't see it (a headbutt), call it a punch." If you don't see it, how can you call it anything. So much for level playing fields.
And too so much for MSM, stocks, news or sports.
So we'll leave you with a quote from former President Dwight D. Eisenhower who happened to be a pretty good commanding general in his previous life, but who was caught off guard as president when he gave orders nobody bothered to carry out. It's the culture.
"If everyone is thinking the same thing, nobody is thinking."
One of the latest, especially in the news and advertising business, is stories or headlines like this: "Five Exercises You Should Never Do," or "The 10 Worse Foods For Your Left Great Toe."
Here's a recent one we came across and legions of similar ones are floating around out there: "Six Sexual Moves Celebrities Enjoy To Ramp Up Their Sex Lives." Now this one, you got to know, has it all--celebrities, sex, ecstasy. If celebrities are doing it, it must be above the rim.
Here're a few picked at random from the investing world, "Six Big Myths About 529 Plans," "10 Tax Breaks For Investors," "10 Best Mutual Funds" and "4 Ways The Market Could Surprise You." The writer of this last one, I'm pretty sure, plagiarized the idea from one of my old girlfriends.
If you don't want to miss articles like that one and others pay more attention at the checkout counter or to your evening news instead of squeezing the avocados so long at the grocery.
As any blogger who's bothered to look knows, content maybe king but snappy headlines is what's it's all about. That's just one of the many ways fledging bloggers hoping to make it big are advised to fuel their online businesses.
Here's another recent example from one of the world's leading newspapers that takes itself way too seriously, the Los Angeles Times: "The Five Biggest Lies About Entitlement Programs."
When you go to the store to buy food do you go to buy food you don't like? How about restaurants? We've written before about those red and blue election maps that pop up every four years. We pointed out there are only two types of historians, red and blue.
The same holds for MSM. The only difference is MSM may be a bit more subtle about it, kind of like Joe Biden or Karl Rove. In the investment world it's the bulls and the bears, the red and the blue. Same story, just a different arena. Taking stocks higher so you can then short them is not uncommon anymore than pushing them lower so you can buy them cheaper is.
Level playing fields exist but not in this dimension. Recently, the WSJ featured an article about the world's oldest investor, a successful, 107 year-old guy who still reads two newspapers and several magazines a day and practices pretty much a buy-and-hold strategy laden with quality-type companies.
When asked why, he said: "Because I want to know more about the companies I'm buying than the guy does who's selling."
Even the dumbest stock broker knows about front running, a law against putting on a position ahead of your clients on a stock you're hawking. The regulators' answer is full disclosure, as in we don't currently own or have a position in this equity.
Most sports today except a few like boxing have replay cameras. One boxing wag, a noted former boxing judge, recently blurted on national television this gem: "Referees are trained if they didn't see it (a headbutt), call it a punch." If you don't see it, how can you call it anything. So much for level playing fields.
And too so much for MSM, stocks, news or sports.
So we'll leave you with a quote from former President Dwight D. Eisenhower who happened to be a pretty good commanding general in his previous life, but who was caught off guard as president when he gave orders nobody bothered to carry out. It's the culture.
"If everyone is thinking the same thing, nobody is thinking."
STOCK MARKET PARLANCE
In the parlance of the stock market there's something called CAPE.
No, it's not about Cape Cod or the Cape of Good Hope, though in some ways it could refer to the latter.
CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. In simple terms, it's a way to use p/e to factor in the effect a business cycle has on earnings. Like a lot of things, one can use it to make a comparison.
Compare what? In this case cheap versus expensive. One of my old bosses was cheap, one of my old girlfriends expensive, but please don't tell her 'cause she was a ranked kick boxer and a former roller derby queen who knows how scuffle and bite.
So let's do it. But first we need to know the historical average of CAPE. According to Goldman Sacs, it's a bit under 19. And now, again according to GS, we're at 24.
By comparison German and Great Britain equities have CAPEs of 13 and 12. We'll respectfully omit the respectively after 13 and 12 because we don't want to insult your intelligence.
Now like Zorro, Superman and a few other notables, we're fond of capes too. That's why we think a short-term regression might be on the horizon for those of us who disdain paying full freight.
If we're wrong it won't be the last time. If we're correct, well, there are a few long term goodies we like, at a lower price.
Monday, March 11, 2013
ANOTHER VIEW
Chinese Banking Probe Push Shares Lower
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-stocks-brighten-as-japan-climbs-again-2013-03-11
Gold Losing Its Luster?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/gold-sales-from-soros-reveal-12-year-bull-run-decay-commodities.html
Business As Usual
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Blogs/Debt-and-Taxes/2013/03/11/Congress-Doled-Out-Bonuses-Ahead-of-Fiscal-Cliff.aspx#page1
Reverse Rotation
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100544442
Congress And Those Scarce Jobs
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/03/10/The-Biggest-Threat-to-the-Jobs-Recovery.aspx#page1
Another View: Not All Prices Rise Together
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/03/11/the-relationship-between-money-and-prices?t=commodities
Forewarned Is As They Say http://ycharts.com/analysis/story/if_caseshiller_index_is_hot_why_is_its_founder_doubting
Gun Control A Broader View
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2013/0311/Why-America-isn-t-the-only-country-that-wants-guns-for-self-defense?nav=90-csm_category-topStories
SOME JUDICIAL SENSE
Some judicial sense, finally.http://www.cnbc.com/id/100442833
A New York judge interdicts ban on sugary drinks Mayor Bloomberg and his food Gestapo tried to ram down the gullets of New Yorkers.
Not so fast. All you cheerleaders take note. Inflation seems to be kicking up in China and global growth prospects waning.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-growth-has-burned-out-and-faded-away-2013-03-11?dist=afterbell
A New York judge interdicts ban on sugary drinks Mayor Bloomberg and his food Gestapo tried to ram down the gullets of New Yorkers.
Not so fast. All you cheerleaders take note. Inflation seems to be kicking up in China and global growth prospects waning.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-growth-has-burned-out-and-faded-away-2013-03-11?dist=afterbell
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