ABOUT TO FIND OUT

How quickly things change.

How often have you heard that? A lot of us fail to recognize that it's one of those portmanteau sayings with another meaning: How short memories are.

A year and a half ago things in Greece were so bad someone stole Plato's tree. We wrote a blog piece about it,  Plato's Tree Is Missing (February, 2013). Unemployment was 27%, pensions had been cut or suspended, street demonstrations were happening almost daily. To put it mildly peoples' mood was anything but copacetic.

Well, here's a blurb from today's Wall Street Breakfast.

After ruling out a need for a 3rd bailout, Greece is now looking to issue its second sovereign bond since April. The new offering further marks Greece's return to the financial markets after a four-year shut out, although the country still faces about a $16B funding gap in 2015. The bond will likely be a three-year issuance with a possible interest rate of just under 3% to raise €2.5-3B.

If the Federal Reserve has transferred risk from it friends, the big banks, to the paper asset market, and they have, there's another transfer that took place via the Fed's so-called more transparency policies and it's continual reassurance talk. 

Most call it complacency. Announcing the date you expect something to end, QE, and setting a possible date for interest rates to rise is designed to probe the water temperature and settle mood. It's like saying one has until such and such a time to prepare. But worry not because we got you covered. 

And basing those announcements on questionable economic data that are constantly revised upwards and downwards is something only government bureaucrats could get away with.When one door get closed usually another gets opened.

The major question is here is: How good of an indicator is complacency? Some say we are about to find out.

Along those lines, as MSM waits for the release of the Fed's June minutes to pour over and scratch for signs, here's another view from an ex-White House economist. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-questions-with-alan-krueger-on-long-term-joblessness-2014-04-03?pagenumber=2

OUR VIEW

 

For those who follow such things, 47 U.S. corporations have relocated overseas via the so-called tax inversion in the last 10 years.

That's more than in the last 20 years, itself a clear-cut message, not that anyone in those not-so hallowed Halls of Gridlock is listening. Now Rep. Sander Levin (D., Mich.) wants to, typically, put an end to it by making it more difficult for theses companies to relocate by pushing legislation that would make it harder to move to such countries as Ireland and the UK.

As the failed Pfizer-Astra deal pointed up most do so by merging with another company already domiciled overseas. Mr. Levin has clearly missed his calling and he should immediately seek a transfer to the French parliament. There's surely a welcome place for him there.

As one report noted, nearly all other developed countries, excluding, of course, the U.S., still tax there multinationals on their domestic not global earnings. The U.S. rate is the highest in the developed world. Now we understand that's a sore point that it's difficult for people like Mr. Levin to understand.

Maybe the excessive cold last winter has something to do with it. But if you value anything about the free market system and companies and people having free, unshackled, non-spied upon free movement, you'll let people like Mr. Levin know how you feel.

That's our view. We hope you know yours.

AROUND THE WSJ WEB

 

The Wall Street Journal celebrates its 125th anniversary today. First published on July 8,1889, today an issue goes for $2. Back then an annual subscription cost $5.00 and advertisements 20 cents a line. The first edition had four pages.

So as a long time reader and in tribute to their longevity, we'll do an around-the-web solely dedicated today to the WSJ.

--We've been talking about the demise of cash for some time now and here's a piece from today's WSJ.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/james-gorman-on-the-future-of-finance-big-banks-will-get-bigger-1404762062. Make no mistake no matter how they spin it, removing cash has much more sinister leanings than the convenience excuse and the advance of technology behind it. 

As Voltaire reportedly said: "If you see a banker leap of out of a window, it's probably a good idea to follow because there's probably a profit in it."

--Yesterday we wrote about the big banks, american-dream-wall-street-style, and their quest to claw their way back to profitability. 

 The six largest U.S. banks have cut about 7.5% of their staffs, or 88,110 positions, since 2011, according to regulatory filings. The cuts have been spurred partly by the slowdown in mortgage refinancing, which hit banks’ revenue last year and continues to be a headwind this year. The slow trading environment has also raised the prospects for additional job cuts, according to analysts.

Count these survivors out at your own investing peril. 

--Here's a buyback quote from Ahead of the Tape column.

 

A big one is buybacks, which hit their highest since 2005 in the first quarter, boosting per-share earnings by 3.3%. The S&P 500's earnings wouldn't have grown without those repurchases.

Not only are buybacks' bang for the buck diminishing, the amount has slipped. Announced buybacks by all listed companies slid to nearly a two-year low in the second quarter, according to TrimTabs Investment Research. That could mean companies are now more optimistic, finding investments for that extra cash.

--If there's a spy in the ointment it just might be the U.S. http://online.wsj.com/articles/new-u-s-spying-claim-prompts-german-outrage-1404727787

--Is there anything those psychiatrists won't do to a make a buck? Hoarding, extreme, what ever the hell that is and who gets to define it, is now a psychiatric disorder.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/the-psychology-of-clutter-

So that's it. Happy 125th WSJ.

BEGGAR THY EURO

Beggar thy currency 

.

In some circles it's called beggar-thy-neighbor.

A while back when ECB President Mario Draghi was dragging his feet about his next move to jump start the EU economy, the euro traded at $1.37 and we mentioned it's true value was closer to $1.20 on the beggar-thy-neighbor scale. Well, given a blurb in Business Insider today it appears as if some EU executives agree. 

Here's an excerpt.

Calls For ECB To Act. Executives in Europe are calling on Frankfurt to weaken the Euro. "[Europe] cannot be the only economic zone of the world that doesn’t consider its currency as a weapon . . . as a key asset to promote its economy,” Airbus CEO Fabrice Brégier told the Financial Times in an interview. Brégier says it should be at least 10% lower from its $1.35 level. 

A 10% decline from here would just about make that call correct. 

EXPORT-IMPORT BANK UPROAR

As soon as we take a stand, any stand, someone is going to label us. And even if we don't there's still a label waiting. Such is the nature of our world.

Since we have broad shoulders and been around a while, we understand you can't help yourself.

The uproar over the Export-Import bank and it's possible expiration rages on. Not everyone who opposes the Export-Import is a conservative, right wing veggieburger-head. That's a line MSM rehearses daily along with those multiplication tables they failed to learn in grade school.

Lobbyists, as is their bent, are out in flock, passing out little reminders to officials how the Export-Import bank helps businesses in their districts. In some quarters that 's viewed as buying votes. But apparently not in Potomac Land.

One of their arguments for preserving the controversial bank is other countries subsidize their companies to help with international trade. That's a page out of my dear deceased mother's Book of Warnings. Whenever I offered up the feeble excuse others were doing it, her reply: "If you see someone jump off a bridge, are you going to follow?"

It's too simple for these folks, too straight block-and-tackle forward. Everything in the vernacular of these pimps--and that's what they are, official paid ones to be sure--costs jobs. So no subsidies ever get carted off to the permanent bone yard.

You know when folks have a good gig going they'll do just about anything to preserve the handout. You can bet where there's smoke there's graft and payoffs. And you can bet the bigger the protest to preserve, the bigger the payoffs. Here's a quote from today's WSJ.

The business groups have brought in big names such as former House Majority Leader Dick Gerphart and former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barber, a Republican, to promote the bank's worth. Hamilton Place Strategies, hired to lobby on the issue for the manufacturers, have created a 'war room' to  provide rapid response to counter critics with email and social media.  

Now that's not to suggest that the opponents are not out in force also. If they weren't this boondoggle would just get rubber-stamped faster than you can spell gridlock backwards.We're talking about some big companies here, Boeing and GE, not just little guys.

Encyclopedia.com describes Ex-Im "as one of the most viable sources of financing for small- and mid-sized exporters." Pretty hard to figure out then why such giants as Boeing and GE are getting so riled up. We'd liked to know what's small or mid-sized about those two big bulldozers.

Apologists for this big boondoggle label anyone who opposes it as carrying on a "real crusade (that) is ideological." As if paying lobbyist to lobby for keeping it isn't.  

GE Power and Water Executive Steve Bolze "laid out the case for reauthorizing the bank and asked workers using a website to generate a letter to their representative in Congress." At a time when corporations are bitching about employees stealing work time on the Internet, apparently Mr. Bolze doesn't mind wasting shareholder money.

If companies as big as Boeing and GE need Ex-Im subsidies, all of GE's high paid executives should back up to the pay window every month. This isn't about saving jobs. It's about taxpayer subsidies. The subsides raise another legitimate issue: Why are shareholders in these behemoths paying all those humongous executive salaries if the companies still require subsidies?

Sounds like someone is over paid and under effective. Mr. Immhelt, are you listening? If you're a shareholder of GE--and we are as is some of our clients--perhaps Mr. Immhelt and Mr. Bolze will grasp what we're doing here. We're calling you out, gentlemen.

And for all you other shareholders, the water feels just fine. 
t.m. hatter

AMERICAN DREAM WALL STREET STYLE

 
 t. man hatter

The push is on.

As we enter into the second half the Wall Street mavens have their recommendation out. We'll list a few here and you can read them for yourselves.

Let's be clear. We are not in any way saying some of these won't turn out well. What we are suggesting is these folks would almost leverage their first and second born to keep this circus going. You do that by increasing your market share, another term for bringing fresh money into the market.

The big U.S. banks have been hit  hard by regulations since the market blew up in 2008. Fixed income, currency, and commodity trading revenues took the fall, dropping on average around 15 percent. Uncertain litigation risks hover just around the corner.

Take a lead from the huge pharmaceutical firms. Lower what defines a normal blood pressure or LDL and you'll sell more pills. Back it up with paid-to-do research. With Wall Street it's just the opposite. Make things look irresistible and certain. The first caters to fear, the second greed. But one guesses a so-called cynic would say they both cater to both.

Loan competition from shadow lending isn't helping, recently attracting more attention from central bankers worldwide. Though loan growth has picked up, some are saying banks are being quite aggressive and that might mean suspect quality here.

The ever ubiquitous Goldman Sachs (As an economic fun parlor game try to count the number of central bankers at the world's major central banks with Goldman connections!) gets a fair share of its revenue from trading and investment banking.

One of the big boys recently announced further layoffs. Along those lines, the Associated Press, the big wire service news provider, disclosed its wire reports, once the solid province of homo sapiens, in future would be done by robots.

Restructuring is afoot here, an abstract term, like those in the accounting world, that means whatever they want it to mean. If you catch the drift, there's the odious smell of pessimism wafting about, a staple of MSM. According to some reports, these big boys are trading around 10 times forward earnings, a huge discount to their big regional brethren and non-performing assets have been halved since the pony escaped the barn.

Given the more than likely prospect of some sort of pullback here, a decent contrarian might suggest why buy their recommendations when the mother loads looks cheaper. 

If you believe these TBTF institutions--of course, with more than a little help from their friends--won't claw their way back to profitability and raise their payouts along the way, you don't subscribe to the American Dream Wall Street style.


http://247wallst.com/investing/2014/07/03/j-p-morgans-top-stock-picks-for-the-second-half-of-2014/lofrom their friends--

http://247wallst.com/investing/2014/07/07/top-u-s-picks-to-buy-from-rbcs-global-ideas-list/

http://247wallst.com/investing/2014/07/01/merrill-lynchs-top-eight-catalyst-stocks-to-buy-for-the-third-quarter/

MORE FED SPEAK

A host of Fed governors are set to speak this week. Here's a list from BusinessInsider.com.

Fedspeak Calendar

• Tues, 1:00 p.m. ET: Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lackerspeaks on the economic outlook.
• Tues, 1:45 p.m. ET: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks on monetary policy and the economy.
• Thurs, 1:15 p.m. ET: Kansas City Fed President Esther Georgespeaks on monetary policy and the economy.
• Thurs, 4:30 p.m. ET: Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer speaks on financial sector reform.
• Fri, 11:15 a.m. ET: Philly Fed President Charles Plossermoderates a panel on entrepreneurship.
• Fri, 2:00 p.m. ET: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speak on a panel at the Rocky Mountain Economic Summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Some claim Fischer is one of the main members of the triumvirate--Yellen, Dudley and Fischer--and investors should pay more attention to his talk for any clues about Fed actions. Fischer is vice chairman and Dudley is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Here is a more complete update for next week from Minyanville.com.
  
Monday, July 7

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

No major reports scheduled
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.5bln-$3.25bln notes in 7 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $25bln 3-month bills, $23bln 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:00 JPY Leading Index (MAY P)
05:00 JPY Coincident Index (MAY P)
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MAY)
14:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (JUN)
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (MAY)
23:50 JPY Bank Lending (JUN)

Earnings

No reports scheduled

Tuesday, July 8

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 JOLTS Job Openings (May) - prior 4455
3:00 Consumer Credit (May) - expected $19.05B, prior $26.847B
11:00 Fed to purchase $1bln-$1.25bln bonds in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $27bln 3-year notes

Fedspeak

1:00pm Lacker (hawk, nonvoter) speaks on economy in North Carolina
1:45pm Kocherlakota (dove, voter) speaks on monetary policy in Minneapolis

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Eco Watchers Survey (JUN)
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (JUN)
06:00 JPY Bankruptcies (JUN)
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (MAY)
08:30 GBP Industrial Production (MAY)
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MAY)
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (JUN)

Earnings

After
Bob Evans Farms (BOBE)
Alcoa (AA)

Wednesday, July 9

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:30 Crude Oil Inventories
2:00 Fed Releases FOMC meeting minutes (June 17-18 meeting)
1:00 Treasury selling $21bln 10-year notes (2nd reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL)
01:30 CNY Producer Price Index (JUN)
01:30 CNY Consumer Price Index (JUN)
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (JUN P)
12:15 CAD Housing Starts (JUN)
22:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUN)
23:50

Earnings

No reports scheduled

Thursday, July 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - prior 315K
08:30 Continuing Claims - prior 2579K
10:00 Wholesale Inventories - exp 0.6%, prior 1.1%
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
11:00 Fed to purchase $450m-$600m TIPS in 4 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $13bln 30-year bonds (2nd reopening)

Fedspeak:

1:15pm George (hawk, nonvoter) speaks on US economy in Oklahoma

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Machine Orders (MAY)
JPY Japanese Investors Purchases of Foreign Stocks and Bonds
CNY New Yuan Loans (JUN)
CNY Aggregate Financing RMB (JUN)
CNY Trade Balance (JUN)
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (JUN)
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index
08:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
08:30 GBP Trade Balance (MAY)
11:00 GBP BOE Rate Decision (JUL)
11:00 GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (JUL)
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MAY)

Earnings

Before:
Family Dollar (FDO)

Friday, July 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

2:00 Monthly Budget Statement (JUN)

Fedspeak:

2:45pm Lockhart (dove, nonvoter) and Evans (dove, nonvoter) to speak in Jackson Hole, WY

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 AUD Home Loans (MAY)
06:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (JUN F)
08:30 GBP Construction Output (MAY)
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (JUN)

Earnings

Before
Wells Fargo (WFC)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

PLAY ME VIOLINS AND FLOWERS

t.man hatter

Greed knows few bounds.

To the surprise of most the first half of 2014 had unexpected leaders like utilities, consumer staples and healthcare. Energy jumped in there especially after the Ukraine and Iraqi situations erupted. But it was hardly what many anticipated when the new year rolled around in January

Lately, there's been the hint of a slight change as more aggressive areas of the market muscle their way to the front. Over the long Fourth weekend CBS News banged out this story ,http://www.cbsnews.com/news/stocks-soar-and-most-americans-just-dont-care, as we head into earnings season and the second half.

Second quarter earnings, according to some, are expected to clock in around 5%, down for sure from an earlier call of nearly 7% when the second quarter started. But expectations are expectations. And for that matter so is disappointment.

Take it for certain that many want this rotation away from the softer more defensive issues to those aggressive bigger boys. It's what's needed to bring the retail mom and poppers back in for another kill. Line the prey up carefully, dangle the reward up front and wait.

The message is clear. The gap between the haves and the have-not crowd has numerous causes, but one of them is because you folks gave up on the system too early. More than 50 percent of Americans, according to one survey, avoid the stock market like most of us try to avoid a 5 o'clock rush hour on a Friday afternoon.

The ones who stayed the course have seen their holdings for the most part more than make up for (and then some) the losses suffered when things went nasty in 2007. If you've ever managed money--and we have and still do--you know how difficult it is to keep people from panicking.

What is almost as difficult is trying to get investors to buy out-of-favor, banged-up stocks or sectors. Several years ago when the Cox-2 inhibitor furor hit the market and Merck, the huge drug firm,was getting sued by nearly every lawyer worthy of the label and many who weren't and still aren't, we ran a survey of our longest standing clients suggesting they sell rolling puts against the stock as it fell, the given part in all the uproar.

The plan was simple. We wanted to accumulate as many shares as we could on the cheap. Risk has its rewards. Our research, though hardly impeccable, told us this too would somehow pass.

This was an old Buffett move he used with Coca Cola several years ago, though Coke wasn't being sued by anyone. We didn't have any inside info that things would go well, but what we did have was years of experience banging around the medical research industry. 

The FDA has two fundamental flaws--efficacy and safety. Both are like timing and direction in the market: You might get one correct, but seldom do you get both. What is suppose to be always safe isn't. And what is supposed to be efficacious often falls short.

And we also had an earlier experience with all those greedy state attorneys generals who sued big tobacco. The odds were better than good that those with some patience would make money. And we and our clients did. Now these things are never guaranteed. And that's what those who beat the have-versus-have-not drum want. It's disguised as equal outcomes, ten shades beyond anything that has to do with equal opportunities.

Anyone today can buy equities; it's not that hard or costly. Any stock market historian, right, left or revisionist, worthy of the monicker will attest to the shakeout in the broker business even before the Internet arrived. Before that it was a transaction-based business where even one side of a trade could cost several hundred dollars.

Things don't change over night, but before long discount brokers were riding herd and financial news exploded on the major airways overtaking what for many years was the bailiwick of public television. Few cared about it and even fewer watched. Financial media from newsletters to mutual funds to television--much of it directed at the proletariat--proliferated. 

Back in late 1982 when this big, bad bull market finally shook off the cobwebs of the deep, painful 1973-74 bear market, there were fewer than 400 mutual funds. Check out the number now if you can count that high without a calculator

Some of our clients still own Merck and have collected some nice dividends over the time, notwithstanding the upside. Now let's make this clear. This is not one of those pat-yourself on the back or hey-look-at-us things. Not every move in the market goes your way. Plenty don't work out.

And some day when there's more time--but we doubt if there will ever be enough time--we'll discuss a few that went the way of the noted "The best-laid schemes o' mice an' men." It happens.

Whether you put any stock in studies, over the years numerous ones have shown that fear is a much greater motivator than greed. In the case of the mom and poppers it's the fear of  missing out. The higher this market gets, the more Wall Street, MSM, Yellen and friends will roll out the violins and flowers.

AROUND THE WEB

 Don't See Any Bond Buying By ECB
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/05/us-ecb-lautenschlaeger-idUSKBN0FA0AS20140705

Commodities Uncoupled
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-03/commodities-obsolete-in-models-yielding-to-fed-ecb.html

 CO2 Emissions
 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/04/message-to-the-president-data-shows-co2-reduction-is-futile/#more-112527

Iraqi Army Retakes Saddam H's Home Town
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-iraqi-army-just-retook-saddam-husseins-birthplace--a-huge-symbolic-and-tactical-victory-2014-7

 Mind And Mushrooms
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/03/us-health-magicmushrooms-idUSKBN0F80YB20140703

Higher Wage New Jobs
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/07/03/more-than-half-of-2014s-new-jobs-pay-higher-than-average-wage/

JP Morgan Moves Up IR Forecast
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/03/us-jpmorgan-chase-employment-idUSKBN0F81LA20140703

A Good Chart To See Going Into 2nd Half
http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/53b4782becad04db0ed8477b-960/c-53.jpg

German Minimum Wage Hike
http://money.cnn.com/2014/07/03/news/economy/minimum-wage-germany/index.html?iid=HP_River

THE BOMB WILL NEVER GO OFF

 
j. eugene jones

A lot of talk is making the rounds today about the Federal Reserve's massive case of lethargy when it comes to inflation and interest rates.

Translation: inflation isn't a problem and interest rates won't be heading higher until the experts say so. The so-called new focus is stable, sustainable growth.

Can someone toss a hell or high water in there? Thank you!

We've heard this from a multitude of gurus. Some have even been shouting it from the electronic mountain tops. That's one of the unspoken prerequisites. And they could turn out to be correct.

But just for the thrill of it, let's take a look at some examples where something went terribly wrong. And then you, too, might agree: There is real danger in following the experts.  

 "Whatever happens the U.S Navy is not going to be caught napping," Frank Knox, December 4,1941, three days before Pearl Harbor.

There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home. Kenneth Olsen, president and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.


“640k memory ought to be enough for anyone.” Bill Gates 1981.

“X-rays will prove to be a hoax.” Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society 1895.

That the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced.
                                                         Scientific American, Jan. 2, 1909.


“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” Harry Warner (Warner Bros.) 1927.

“While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially I consider it an impossibility.” Lee Deforest, the inventor of the vacuum tube/electric value.

“I think there is a world market for about five computers.” Thomas Watson, chairman IBM, 1943.

JFK, after his Bay of pig disaster in Cuba, moaned that all his life he knew not to believe the experts, so what the hell was he thinking.  There are plenty of more recent examples where the so-called experts proved wrong.

There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. Steve Ballmer, USA Today, April 30, 2007.

And lastly, here is one of our favorites.

 “This is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosive.” Admiral William D. Leahy on the atomic bomb, 1945.

Now to be fair people associated with Gates and Watson claim neither made those assertions. But there's more than enough evidence that even without those two going far back in history right up to today the predicting record of so-called experts is fragile at best and pathetic at worst.