THE BOMB WILL NEVER GO OFF

 
j. eugene jones

A lot of talk is making the rounds today about the Federal Reserve's massive case of lethargy when it comes to inflation and interest rates.

Translation: inflation isn't a problem and interest rates won't be heading higher until the experts say so. The so-called new focus is stable, sustainable growth.

Can someone toss a hell or high water in there? Thank you!

We've heard this from a multitude of gurus. Some have even been shouting it from the electronic mountain tops. That's one of the unspoken prerequisites. And they could turn out to be correct.

But just for the thrill of it, let's take a look at some examples where something went terribly wrong. And then you, too, might agree: There is real danger in following the experts.  

 "Whatever happens the U.S Navy is not going to be caught napping," Frank Knox, December 4,1941, three days before Pearl Harbor.

There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home. Kenneth Olsen, president and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.


“640k memory ought to be enough for anyone.” Bill Gates 1981.

“X-rays will prove to be a hoax.” Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society 1895.

That the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced.
                                                         Scientific American, Jan. 2, 1909.


“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” Harry Warner (Warner Bros.) 1927.

“While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially I consider it an impossibility.” Lee Deforest, the inventor of the vacuum tube/electric value.

“I think there is a world market for about five computers.” Thomas Watson, chairman IBM, 1943.

JFK, after his Bay of pig disaster in Cuba, moaned that all his life he knew not to believe the experts, so what the hell was he thinking.  There are plenty of more recent examples where the so-called experts proved wrong.

There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. Steve Ballmer, USA Today, April 30, 2007.

And lastly, here is one of our favorites.

 “This is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosive.” Admiral William D. Leahy on the atomic bomb, 1945.

Now to be fair people associated with Gates and Watson claim neither made those assertions. But there's more than enough evidence that even without those two going far back in history right up to today the predicting record of so-called experts is fragile at best and pathetic at worst.