Wednesday, July 16, 2014

EXPLAIN YOURSELF


                                          t. man hatter

Today was Humphrey-Hawkins Day and Fed Chair Janet Yellen did her best impression of former Chairmen Ben Bernanke and Sir Alan Greenspan.

But first we digress a bit.

Here's a quote from today's Market Watch

Leading market sectors lower included: Gold Miners (GDX), Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ), Silver Miners (SIL), Small Caps (IWM), Energy (XLE), Biotech (IBB), Social Media (SOCL), Retail (XRT), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health care (XLV), Australia (EWA), Solar (TAN), Russia (RSX), Germany (EWG), Austria (EWO), Spain (EWP), Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), Crude Oil (USO), Natural Gas (UNG), and Bonds (TLT).
Given Fed Chair Janet Yellen's double talk tour de force, a staple of central bankers everywhere, you might want to put some illogic to work and peruse some of the sectors like mining and energy. You might also want to take a look at our recent post, Don't Need You Well-Thought-Out Advice.

A lot of money was flowing out of Australia late last and early this year, partly owing to concerns about China's expected slowdown and weakening demand for commodities. Commodities in the Land Dwn Under is mostly spelled mining. Now according to the WSJ, much of that money is returning. Europe and the U.S., so the earlier Street party line went, were suppose to pick up the slack.

Call it the kangaroo bond trade. There's a lot of yield-starved money sloshing around the globe and the yields on Australian bonds look delectable to famished investors.

Germany's economic numbers came in weak and energy has eased a bit despite troubles around the globe. Retail has been in a funk and the earlier hacking case at Target didn't help. Consumer staples were one of the first half surprises along with utilities and energy.  

Biotech got way ahead of itself before returning to this dimension in February and since has recaptured much of those loses. Spain, well, we all know about the pain in Spain.  

Health care's been on a run of late and rests near it yearly highs as some like its future prospects citing baby boomers. 

Here's another quote: "...was facing another problem, which was perhaps even bigger, but partly secret.  The nation's banks, the foundation of the system, were in big trouble. Bad loans,especially those made in real estate and in Latin America, were taking their toll. Some of the largest commercial banks were on the verge of going under. The depth of the problem was a big secret within the Fed, which had regulatory control.  But it wasn't just the banks. A number of securities firms and insurance companies  were in trouble as well."

If that sounds familiar like something you lived through just a few yesterdays ago you'd be incorrect.The above is a quote from Bob Woodward's 2000 Maestro Greenspan's Fed And The American Boom discussing what was going on in late 1990.

There are three takeaways here. What happened in 2007-08 when numerous big banks were taking on more than water, you had securities firms like Lehman and Bear Stearns biting the bullet and a stock market panic, none of this is new.


In the quote you'll notice that then as now the Fed "had regulatory control." And here's the most troublesome part. In less than a generation the Federal Reserve and their big buddies, big bankers, created not one but two major economic crises. And this last time they actually outdone themselves. 


So ramp up your confidence if you have any left in these bureaucrats and follow their lead. And to help bolster your confidence here's a term for you, one that MSM loves to toss around--transparency.

So much for Humphrey-Hawkins Day which originally came about as part of the Humhprey-Hawkins Full Employment Act of 1978 that required the Fed to appear before Congress twice a year to explain itself. We use the term explain advisedly here.

As one media wag recently wrote: "The more the Fed talks, the less the public understands."






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