Thursday, July 10, 2014

FOOTNOTE

                                      t. man hatter

In case you haven't been paying attention metals have started to stir. Here's a quote from today's Barron's.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average stalled in June just shy of the exalted 17,000 level, something very interesting changed beneath the surface. It was not the sexy momentum stocks but rather the opposite -- industrial metals -- that suddenly started to outperform the market. And the charts point to still higher prices ahead.


This sector comprises commodity producers at the very bottom of the economic food chain, including copper miners and steel producers. It is easy to overlook them in a Google-dominated market, so it took a new high last week in miner Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (ticker: FCX ) to put these stocks on anyone's front burner.

We wrote about the sector and, in particular, two of these puppies, FCX and NEM, months ago when much of the market talk centered on China's economic weakeness and the global slow down.

Freeport McMoran had some trouble in Indonesia which now looks as if its resolved. Newmont was earlier in consolidation talks with Barrick Gold (ABX), but both sides couldn't get it done. Now it appears as if those talks may start up again.

Make no mistake the pessimistic crew is still around. Jabbering about these two being two medium-sized bad companies will beget one bigger really bad company if they unite is the stuff we like to see.

Some folks look for happiness. We look for pessimism. Pessimism usually precedes hope as hope does happiness. So we like our chances, if for no other reason than they're ours.

Copper so the story  goes was first mined around 10 centuries ago. Its uses are numerous, construction and electrical wiring, to mention a few. It's the metal many refer to because of it widespread uses as the Ph'd metal.

Freeport just hit a 52-week high $39.30, well off from its high in early 2011 around $60. Analysts at HSBC recently initiated coverage with an overweight rating and a target price of $44. The stock is up over 40% in the last year while the S&P 500 gained close to 19%.

Now we don't put much stock in analyst reports, buy, sell or hold. Hold is actually a sell from these boys and girls. But biases being what they are, we do like our own research.

No comments: