Saturday, July 26, 2014

WHATEVER IT TAKES TIME


t. man hatter

Bazooka Ben, Dragster Draghi, Just-Noise Yellen, choose whatever nickname you want.

For Draghi and his fellow ECB crew members our new suggestion is: Whatever-It-Takes Draghi.

Given the recent slowdown in the EU's biggest economy, Germany, this past week stocks took a hit. Even the seemingly-never-going-to-weaken euro dipped below $1.35.

Stubborn is as stubborn does. Earlier this year we suggested the euro's true value was somewhere around $1.20, a level Draghi and company probably pray for privately. We're not changing our view.

The 1.15% yield on the German 10-year bond is now solidly in second place in the bond-yield race to the bottom just behind Japan's 0.53% whooper. With a bit of imagination that makes the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield of 2.47%  junk bond status in this crazy central bank induced milieu. To which most can only utter: Oh well!

Germany's IFO economic research outfit delivered a not-so-welcome blow last week to ECB President Mario Draghi and his central banking colleagues. Blaming in part geopolitics--as if they're ever new--the agency noted a headwind in July for Deutschland businesses for the third straight month.

Germany is the EU's locomotive. Now it faces another decision--sanctions against Russia. No small matter, this will put further pressure on Draghi as most likely his worst nightmare whatever-it-takes time has arrived.





No comments: