Monday, October 6, 2014
INTERESTING CHART
As readers here know we follow energy and, contrary to current wisdom, we like it along with all the negative sentiment that's ongoing in the media today.
Here from Business Insider is an interesting chart. One could surmise if geopolitical interruptions are at three-year highs today, they could obviously drop. Yes, they could. But it's highly improbable that they will go away.
Besides that there are other forces at work that favor higher energy prices down the road.
That's our view. We're not saying it's got to be yours.
http://www.businessinsider.com/geopolitics-oil-supply-disruptions-2014-10?
KEEPING IT LOCAL
France's Finance Minister Michel Sapin and his fellow bellyachers like Matteo Renzi are Band-aid lineage. That's all they know. Nothing ever gets fixed, just covered over. The same goes for the Martin Wolfs of the editorial page coterie.
Wolf, in his his recent economic editorial abortion, "An unconventional tool," a formal apologia for more QE, writes this pathetic sentence: " One has to hope that emerging economies are now properly prepared for the ending of QE."
They sure are, just like the developed ones with all their brain trusts were properly prepared for the economic explosion that ripped through the global world just over five years ago. The angst among European politicians, bureaucrats and columnists about meeting the EU budget deficit limits is palpable.
In Wolfgang Munchau's FinancialTimes article today, "If Europe insists on sticking to rules recovery will be a distant dream," speaking about European Commission policy, writes: "And while they are at it, they should also suspend the fiscal compact. There is no way that Italy or France will meet its stringent fiscal targets in the foreseeable future."
Foreseeable future as used here is a euphemism for one word--never. The truth is France and Italy, good times or otherwise. never intended to meet those requirements. That's why the good people of Europe rather than bureaucrats, politicians and verbose columnists would be better served trusting known liars and river boat gamblers.
Appropriately, also in today's Times, John Plender reviews a book by Geoffry Hosking called Trust.
Social trust, says Hosking, is mediated through symbolic systems such as religion and money, together with the institutions associated with them, forming what he calls the "deep grammar of society." He argues, convincingly, that there is a tendency to give too much attention to power and the law relative to trust.
The workings of trust are nonetheless complex. Religion, for example, can provide people with a sense of identity, emotional solace and community. Yet religions also create boundaries, across which distrust is projected against outsiders--witness the virulent history of Christians and Jews, Christians and Muslims, Catholics and Protestants.
In the complex modern world what increases trust in one group can intensify distrust in another. Moreover, the transition from trust to distrust can be rapid. The EU was the most successful attempt after the second world war to extend the radius of trust from the nation state to the international level. Yet the eurozone sovereign debt crisis posed an awkward test for supranational trust, demonstrating how citizens tend to rediscover their primary trust in the nation state in crisis.
That's as local as it gets, folks, in case you don't recognize it. Buried in all the arguments for globalization is the most powerful for keeping it local.
THE GROSS SAGA
The Gross saga continues.
"It is fair to ask how long 70-year old Gross will stay at it," one newspaper today printed, clearly an age question and not on the face of it really all that appropriate despite what some might say.
Any longtime readers of the respectable business journal Barron's know that publication over the years has written numerous articles about successful investors much older than Gross still running money, either their own or others or both.
People are living longer today and they are staying functional longer. If that's not true than MSM needs to short circuit much of its popular, personal information sections. They're just hypocritical tripe otherwise.
There are exceptions to every rule, i before e except after c. From what we read and MSM loves to publish in the business news is many studies showing that employers welcome older workers because of their reliability and their work ethic. It's also been written in many of these studies that the older crowd happen to know a thing or two.
As we previously noted in our "We Like The Odds" post, this guy deserves a shot if for no other reason than his past performance. America is a country that prides itself on comeback stories. Before you toss this guy to the investment scrapheap of history, ask yourself this question:
"How many of you have not at one time or another temporarily lost or misplaced your mojo?"
Now to meet fair disclosure, we never had any money invested with Pimco while Gross ran the big show and we have yet to put any with him now, though we are considering it not only for our own but our client accounts.
Sunday, October 5, 2014
ALL THINGS LOCAL
Just two weeks ago this illustrious group of policy wonks met.
Not much came out of that meeting except the usual round of MSM reported economic hand wringing. The last meeting was in Australia. This one is here, in Washington, otherwise known as Brussels West.
As noted in the link below, the U.S. will push for the ECB to do more to bolt the EU from its current economic morass. Some will claim ECB President Mario Draghi has already tossed everything including the EU kitchen sink at the problem without any meaningful response.
The Germans will come under fire for their lockstep allegiance to what no politician or bureaucrat worthy of the moniker ever wants, economic and structural reform.
Naysayers and Keynesian government stimulus huggers will call for what they feel is the only real global economic life preserver, QE American style.
Here's a quote from Jens Weidmann earlier today that sort of summarizes the situation.
Berlin (AFP) - Germany's central
bank chief Jens Weidmann voiced concern about the European Central
Bank's latest asset purchase plan to stimulate the eurozone's moribund
economy, in an interview published Sunday.
ECB
president Mario Draghi on Thursday announced purchases starting later
this year of covered bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS) to inject
cash into the ailing economy of the currency bloc.
ABS
are bundles of individual loans such as mortgages, auto credit and
credit-card debt which are sold on to investors, allowing banks to share
the risk of default and freeing up funds to offer more credit.
In truth only three things will come out of this grand collection of policy wonks: The meeting will come, the meeting will go and little else. And that's putting it kindly.
Hong Kong is about local. And so too was Scotland and other so-called disturbances. The move toward localization is a shot across the interventionist, centralist bow of Berlin, Brussels, Washington and, yes,10 Downing Street.
Once the idea sinks in and people realize that the only forte bureaucrats and politicians possess is making promises, the push for all things local will gather even more steam.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/austerity-vs-growth-version-3-0-g20-imf
UPCOMING WEEK
It's a fairly light agenda next week. There is some Fed speak with the hawks and doves trading punches and a few big firms are reporting earnings like Pepsi,Yum and Monsanto.
Monday, October 6
US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
No major reports
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.4b-$1.7b notes in 7 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $24b 3-month bills and $24b 6-month bills
Fedspeak:
8:30pm George (hawk, nonvoter) speaks in New Mexico
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
06:00 EUR German Factory Orders
08:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI
Earnings
No major reports
Tuesday, October 7
US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) - expected 4700, prior 4673
11:00 Fed to purchase $250m-$350m TIPS in 5 to 30-year range
3:00 Consumer Credit - exp $20B, prior $26B
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $27b 3-year notes
Fedspeak
2:30pm Kocherlakota (dove, voter) speaks in South Dakota
3:00pm Dudley (dove, voter) speaks in New York
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision
05:00 JPY Leading Index
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production
07:15 CHF CPI
08:30 GBP Industrial & Manufacturing Production
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (Sep)
Earnings
Before:
Yum! Brands (YUM)
Wednesday, October 8
US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
07:00 MBA Mortgage Apps
2:00 FOMC Minutes
1:00 Treasury selling $21b in 10-year notes
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
01:45 CNY HSBC China Services PMI
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
Earnings
Before:
Costco (COST)
Monstanto (MON)
After:
Alcoa (AA)
Thursday, October 9
US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims, expected 294k, prior 287k
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2440K, prior 2429k
10:00 Wholesale Inventories (Aug) - exp 0.3%, prior 0.1%
1:00 Treasury selling $13b 30-year bonds
Fedspeak
9:45am Bullard (hawk, nonvoter) speaks in St. Louis
11:00am Draghi (ECB head) and Fischer (dove, vice chair) speak in Washington
1:10pm Tarullo (moderate, board) speaks in Washington
1:15pm Lacker (hawk, nonvoter) speaks in North Carolina
1:30pm Fischer speaks in Washington
3:40pm Williams (dove, nonvoter) speaks in Las Vegas
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
Japan Investors Purchases of Foreign Stocks/Bonds
00:30 AUD Employment Data
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision
Earnings
Before:
Pepsi (PEP)
Family Dollar (FDO)
Friday, October 10
US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
08:30 Import Price Index YoY (Sep) - expected -1.3%, prior -0.4%
08:30 Import Price Index MoM - exp -0.7%, prior -0.9%
Fedspeak
9:00am Plosser (hawk, voter) speaks in New York
1:00pm George (hawk, nonvoter) speaks Nebraska
3:00pm Lacker (hawk, nonvoter) speaks in Chicago
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
CNY New Yuan Loans
00:30 AUD Home Loans
08:30 GBP Trade Balance
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate
Earnings
No major reports
Twitter: @MichaelSedacca
GROWING DISENCHANTMENT
We've written before about Hong Kong before all the recent discord broke out, the rise of populism in Europe and the disgruntlement among many Americans who favor their states succeeding from the good ole U.S.
The upcoming election in the U.S. notwithstanding, who carries the Senate will not change anything.
The recent trend of what MSM is calling "trackers," people on the left and right who carry cameras with them and attend events where their opponents are appearing to film and record every word is taking a page from community organizations who film police during disturbances.
In other words, trackers are a political offshoot of Cop Watchers, while the former are new, the latter have been at it for a while. America Rising is the name of one Republican tracking group, American Bridge, founded by billionaire George Soros, the largest Democrat tracking outfit traces its origin to 2010.
If this sounds a bit childish to you, you probably don't recognize just how divided and decadent this nation has become. In Europe Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi recently sided with France in their objection to the EU's rules governing public finance.
Renzi didn't stop there. He poked fun at German Chancellor Angela Merkle in particular and the German people in general for their lockstep allegiance to fiscal probity, calling for Brussels and Berlin to go lighter on austerity and heavier on compassion.
Meanwhile, Renzi's Rome announced its own forecast, projecting a 0.3 percent contraction in GDP for 2014 followed by a stunning turn around to 0.6 percent next year that should excite the folks.
The Scottish No-vote that barely carried the day, much of it owing to rank scaremongering and the Catalonia situation that Spain is doing its best to block are hardly dead in the water, especially if the ECB can't pull the EU out of its economic dregs sooner rather than later.
The point is simple: The longer things stay this way, the more disenchantment will grow. We already have a Misery Index. Why not a Disenchantment Index?
Here's an interesting read that touches on some of these issues.
http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/10/four-recent-and-interesting-posts.html
Friday, October 3, 2014
BANKER GETS DEFENSIVE
Apparently, the dog that didn't bark is beginning to bite, if New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley's recent comments at a New York University event are any indication.
Dudley pushed back against allegations that the Fed is "weak and deferential' in its dealings with big banks.
"We are going to keep striving to improve, but I don't think any one should question our motives or what we're trying to accomplish."
Some of the allegations surfaced after a recent report that a 2009 internal study at the bank suggested a culture where regulators were discouraged "from voicing worries about the banks they supervised," according to the Wall Street Journal.
Dudley noted that the Fed in recent years has implemented several changes that, in his view, reduced risk in the financial system.
"I completely stand behind the integrity and work of our supervision staff at the New York Fed. These people are completely dedicated to the goal of the safety and soundness of the financial system and that's it. They are operating completely in the public interest," he concluded.
One of the issues in the 2009 report centered on a secret tape made by a former New York Fed bank examiner who taped meeting with her supervisors and bank executives. Some of tape apparently referenced an "examiner unwilling to challenge a big
Wall Street bank," the Wall Street Journal reported.
Someone needs to point out to Mr. Dudley it's fairly common business practice to be "weak and deferential" to your owners. So why is he getting so upset?
t. man hatter
THE ANTI-HYDROCARBON CROWD
Here's just one of several reasons we believe all the talk about the U.S. oil glut will keep energy prices low is wrong.
In case you don't recognize it, political risk's the name, good intentions the game. When so-called good intentions meet government regulations, business almost always suffers.
http://earthjustice.org/news/press/2014/145-000-public-comments-on-draft-federal-oil-train-regulations-cite-weak-safety-standards
THE EBOLA VIRUS THREAT
Be careful what you create.
American bureaucrats have created a huge bureaucracy known as the Center for Disease Control. Contrary to what many might think, the CDC is a potentially dangerous autocratic institution masquerading as a government agency that's here to help you.
Now that the MSM has done what it does best, create sensationalism and fear to crank up ratings under the guise of reporting important news with stories about the Ebola virus, especially since one of its own has apparently contracted the virus in Africa and been transported back to the U.S., here's a read everyone should take note of.
This particular journalist who is now being referred to by members of the MSM as a hero has apparently been living in Africa for years tracking the Ebola story. It's the other side of the hero story MSM won't be telling you anytime soon.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/during-an-ebola-pandemic-all-of-your-rights-would-essentially-be-meaningless
Meanwhile, in Texas officials are monitoring 50 people who were suspected of being exposed to someone with the virus.
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/health-officials-work-ebola-virus-us-25936670
Recent stories have even suggested the virus was affecting Wall Street which seems a bit implausible since few things ever effect Wall Street.
OVER NIGHT
(Bloomberg) Asian stocks dropped for a sixth day as the yen held two days of gains, curbing the earnings outlook for Japanese exporters. Trading is due to resume in Hong Kong following a two-day holiday.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) declined 0.1 percent to 138.35 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets open in Hong Kong. The gauge is down 2.6 percent this week, on course for the biggest weekly drop in six months. The measure has retreated 7.4 percent from a six-year high in July.
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Here are the latest trading levels for Asia's major stock markets: Tokyo (Nikkei Average) down 0.1% ; Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index) down 0.8% ; Shanghai (Shanghai Composite Index) closed ; Sydney (S&P/ASX 200) up 0.3% ; Seoul (Kospi) closed ; Mumbai (Sensex) closed Taipei (Taiex) up 1.5%L
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian stocks
were poised for their fourth-straight weekly fall on Friday, with the
regional index drifting in an aimless morning session as the civil
unrest in Hong Kong and caution ahead of a closely-watched U.S. jobs
report kept investors on edge.
Already
disappointed by the European Central Bank, which gave no new hints of
an imminent sovereign bond buying program, markets were further
underwhelmed by a survey showing growth in China's services sector eased
last month.
MSCI's broadest
index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.06 percent, on track
for a fourth straight week of declines. It has fallen more than 8
percent in the last four weeks, marking its worst performance in over a
year.
Tokyo's Nikkei slipped
0.19 percent, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index was a touch firmer,
while Hong Kong stocks fell 1.36 percent. Markets in South Korea, India
and China are closed for public holidays.
Here are some shots that demonstrate vividly Venezuela's inflation problems.
Venezuela’s surreal prices
Finding images to accompany economic stories has always been a challenge. There’s a temptation to be repetitive and you sometimes end up illustrating, yet not informing properly. I wanted to do something more significant this time to really capture Venezuela’s economic crisis and the way it is hitting people’s pockets. I’ve been covering – and, as a Venezuelan, living! – this subject for a long time but I’m weary of the typical photo of an old lady spending her few resources on food at a supermarket.
So this time I wanted to create images that would really make people sit up and see the story at a glance – namely the crazily high prices for simple everyday products. The idea was straightforward: photograph an item with a price tag showing its equivalent in U.S. dollars and emphasizing that further by pasting up the notes. Executing it, though, proved complicated.
If you're a Bank of America shareholder you might want to start getting upset.
The big bank just chose its CEO, Brian Moynihan, to also be chairman, probably not the best idea for shareholders.
Moynihan's election to board chairman makes Citigroup the only large U.S. bank to have separate chairman and chief executive roles.
Bank of America has just delivered good governance a solid kick in the teeth. The mega-bank announced late Wednesday that its directors have voted to add the chairmanship to Brian Moynihan’s duties as chief executive. The move not only puts too much power in one person’s hands, it also reduces the position to little more than a perk to be granted or taken away, depending on performance.
http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2014/10/02/bofa-delivers-good-governance-a-kick-in-the-teeth/
Some common traits of billionaires.
Billionaires invest a lot in real estate, at about $160 million per person. They tend to have four properties — it supports "the billionaire lifestyle," the report says.
Moynihan's election to board chairman makes Citigroup the only large U.S. bank to have separate chairman and chief executive roles.
Bank of America has just delivered good governance a solid kick in the teeth. The mega-bank announced late Wednesday that its directors have voted to add the chairmanship to Brian Moynihan’s duties as chief executive. The move not only puts too much power in one person’s hands, it also reduces the position to little more than a perk to be granted or taken away, depending on performance.
http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2014/10/02/bofa-delivers-good-governance-a-kick-in-the-teeth/
Some common traits of billionaires.
Billionaires invest a lot in real estate, at about $160 million per person. They tend to have four properties — it supports "the billionaire lifestyle," the report says.
• Billionaires tend to have "non-real estate luxury assets."
They sound really fun. " For example, one in 30 billionaires owns a
sports team or a racehorse," the report says. "Other significant luxury
assets include yachts, planes, cars, and art."
• Billionaires are into matrimony. 65% of them are married.
• Billionaires love the Ivy League.
While billionaires went to over 700 different universities, the Ivies
have the most grads: 25 went to the University of Pennsylvania, 22 went
to Harvard, and 20 went to Yale.
• But a surprising number of billionaires don't have a college degree. 35% never finished undergrad.
• Billionaires tend to work in finance. Almost 20% of billionaires made their careers on Wall Street or its equivalents.
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