Saturday, April 6, 2013

BLOWING BUBBLES AGAIN

Pretend you're sitting on a three-legged stool. It's not quite stable. It wobbles a bit, especially to one side. 

Each leg has a name: bonds, real estate and equities. Two of the legs are much longer than the shortest leg. The names of the two longer legs are equities and bonds.

Now if you want to get the three legs the same length, you have a couple of choices: trim the two longer legs to match the shortest one or somehow lengthen the shortest one, real estate, to match the longer legs, equities and bonds.

Suspend your judgments about evaluation for a moment. Equities and bonds many believe are already bubbles. That leaves only real estate, a much bigger component some would argue in the job creation equation.

Janet Yellen is Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve. She is also a likely candidate to replace Big Ben when he finally packs his bags for greener pastures, most likely a high paying consulting gig on Wall Street.

General Douglas MacArthur once noted, "Old soldier never die, they just fade away." We'll, old Washington bureaucrats and politicians don't fade away, they just land rich consulting fees at investment banks or law firms.

In a speech last month that she went to some pains to point out was about communication and transparency, Yellen noted her own beliefs run somewhat counter to the Bernanke QE parade. 

She then resorted to one of Wall Street's usual suspects, a bromide about this is an exceptional time, meaning it's different from all those other rough patches throughout history that were also supposed to be different. 

Short interpretation: "Though I'm on board, if I were Queen of the Fed I'd do more to tackle the unemployment rate." The official rate is 7.2%, a figure that many believe is at least 50% shy of the real rate of today's jobless folks.

 As nearly all know the Fed is spending $85B a month priming the pump, much of that going to purchase mortgage-backed securities. In other words, to bring that shorter, lagging third stool leg to where the stool doesn't wobble so much and everyone feels comfortable and safe sitting on it.

Perception rules.

And when it comes to bureaucrats and elected officials, like aces in poker, three bubbles are better than two.

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