Thursday, April 4, 2013

DOW THEORY STILL RELEVANT?

How many investors follow the Dow Jones Transportation Average?

It's supposed to be a leading indicator. In January it breeched new territory. Two months later the DJIA hit an all-time high.

The late Marty Zwieg, a renown investor in his own right, gained fame with his "Don't fight the tape!"mantra. The tape so far this year has been more directional than a one-way street sign.

Richard Russell, the publisher of the Dow Jones Theory and a longtime market follower, is the most noted proponent of Dow Theory. In early March Russell suddenly turned bullish after the DJIA hit a new high and urge his followers to invest.

Less than a month earlier he was decidedly bearish when he told his readers:

According to classic Dow Theory, the primary trend of the market can not be manipulated. Further, according to classic Dow Theory, the movements of one Average, unconfirmed by the other Average, are useless as a guide to direction, and are more than likely to prove deceptive.

Russell over the years has made some decent calls. But like the rest of us he's been incorrect too. As Mark Hulbert, publisher of Mark Hulbert Digest, a service that tracks market newsletters, recently wrote:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/12/how-bear-richard-russell-stopped-worrying-and-learned-to-love-the-dia/

The point here is how relevant is the Dow Theory given the changes  in the economy and even the make-up of the Dow components? The idea behind it is that the DJIA needs to make a new high and then be confirmed by the DJTA. 

The reverse is also true when confirming true bear markets. That translates into, as one market veteran noted, a possible time delay since a second indicator must show up to confirm the first.

Compared to the transportations and industrials, much of today's economy centers on banking and technology, two components that serve more as economic drivers than they once did.

Is Dow Theory still relevant?

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