Sunday, November 20, 2016

Overnight


Play defense. That seems to be the theme overnight in Asia.

The dollar and bond yields are up as bond prices suffered and stocks joined the party triggered by the Trump election, but some saying the party's gotten ahead of itself and bond yields are due to go down again. Whether that's just wishful thinking or reality remains to be seen. Bank of America announced it's looking for further upside through the holidays in what they are calling a Santa Clause rally.

Reuters is reporting:
Asian shares were on the defensive on Monday, undermined by fears that the strength in the U.S. dollar and rising U.S. bond yields since Donald Trump's election to president could accelerate fund outflows from emerging markets.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS dipped 0.1 percent, staying near four-month lows. Japan's Nikkei .N225 rose 0.3 percent as the yen continued to slip against the dollar.

Trump's unexpected election victory has led to a major repricing of assets, with investors rushing to buy U.S. stocks and the dollar, while dumping bonds and emerging market assets.
Carrying out even some of his plans for deregulation and tax cuts would undermine assumptions investors had long held - that the U.S. economy would grow modestly and inflation would remain tame in the foreseeable future.

Trump's protectionism could hurt many of U.S. trade partners, including emerging markets which could see decline in exports to the U.S..To be sure, investors have little idea to what extent Trump can implement his proposals, including slapping tariffs on major trading partners such as China and Mexico and heavy tax cuts that would widen the U.S. fiscal deficit.

Some investors think the market will have reality check as soon as differences between the new administration and Congress appear over some of Trump's policies.

"Next week, we have events that would make investors more sober, such as OPEC meeting and Italian referendum. By then this Trump-inspired market may come to an end for now," said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities
The Nikkei is up o.49% trading at 18,055.23; the Kospi down 0.07%; the ASX 200 also off slightly, 0.01%; the Hang Send edged higher o.59%. The dollar continued its rally hitting 101/3 against a basket of six other currencies which the euro makes up a good part. the dollar/euro continues to near parity,trading ar 1.06.11 overnight changed from levels of 1.1134 just 20 days ago. The yen softened again,the eighth straight day with the buck at 110.66.

Crude oil saw some upward light at the end of the energy tunnel with WTI up 0.83% at $46.07 a barrel and Brent tacking on 0.9% at $47.28, a 5% upswing for both in the last week. Some are saying gold is oversold in here. It traded at $1,207.40.

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