It's a holiday shorten market today as U.S. markets close at 1 p.m. ET in New York.
Volume should be down as the market looks to close higher for three weeks running. The question for going forward is how much higher before some argue reality and the new regime change euphoria take hold, one setting in and the other exiting. Straddling those two is a lot like another Black Friday with shoppers trying to locate where all the real bargains might be as hungry retailers struggle to compete with the Amazons and other online sellers for a short junket into shopper purses. The so-called goodies in the stores and online have been gussied up and priced down to add to their allure. The same holds for the stock market. Prices of the so-called good stuff are up and what's now the lame, limp and unwanted priced down.
That's conjures up another dilemma. What do you want and when do you want it?
In the markets the attractive wrappings include expectations for lower corporate taxes and less regulations topped with a dab or two of infrastructure spending. So one of the things to keep your eyes peeled on is where the money is flowing. For a while now passive has been in and active out, another popular market narrative. Tax selling is just around the corner too.
From the Wall Street Journal today we get this:
Supporting the rally on Wall Street, money has also continued to pour out of government bonds, U.S. real estate and gold funds, and into the U.S. equity market in the most recent week, according to fund-tracker EPFR Global.
“A lot of people point to the U.S. election as the turning point,” said Norman Villamin, chief investment officer at Union Bancaire Privée, “but I see it more as an acceleration of an existing trend,” he said. “This is really what we look at as a consequence of a normalization of [U.S. interest rate] policy.”
Investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December and again in 2017.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.372% on Friday, according to Tradeweb, from a one-year closing high of 2.355% on Wednesday, amid concerns about higher inflation and interest rates. Yields move inversely to prices.
----
Higher interest rates and a stronger dollar are reputed to keep a lid on inflation. What else will they keep a lid on? What you need to note is just how much a week can change the globe. All the ugly global pockmarks, just like that office building front of JP Morgan in New York, are still there fully present and unaccounted for.
wsj.com/articles/european-stocks-hold-steady-at-one-month-highs-
No comments:
Post a Comment