Monday, November 7, 2016

At Your Own Peril

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We have always warned about gurus and the need to realize you are on your own. Read them, digest if you want what they say, but do your on thinking. Governments want you to need them more than they need you. That's one of the globalist crowd's major themes.

Confidence is like trust, fragile at best. People have been through Magic Mario's "Whatever it takes" nonsense; they've seen, many first hand, the BOJ's decades' long monetary swamp and other central bank triflings; and we haven't even mentioned the Federal Reserves Bank's pathetic shortcomings.

It's not old men, white or otherwise, it's perception that rules in the end. And liquidity. Forget that term at your peril.

peakprosperity.com/podcast/103187/jim-rickards-theyre-going-lock-down-system
Here’s the point. In 1998, Wall Street bailed out a hedge fund (LTCM). In 2008, the central banks bailed out Wall Street. In 2018, if not sooner, who’s going to bail out the central banks? The central banks are at the point where they don’t have any dry powder left.
By way of example, the Fed took their balance from $800 billion to $4.2 trillion and cut interest rates to 0%. Now, if they had normalized things in the meantime, so let’s say they got their balance sheet back down to $800 billion or maybe one trillion dollars and raised interest rates up to 2 or 3%, I’d be the first one to congratulate them. I’d say, “Hey, nice going. You saved the world and you normalized your balance sheet and normalized interest rates.” But, that didn’t happen. The balance sheet is still at $4 trillion, interest rates are still close to 0%. What are they going to do in the next crisis? Take the balance to $8 trillion, $12 trillion? They can’t do it. There’s an invisible confidence boundary. No one knows exactly where it is -- you find out the hard way. And when you cross it, you destroy confidence in the dollar.
The only clean balance sheet left in the world is at the IMF, the International Monetary Fund. And, that’s where the liquidity will come from in the next crisis. They have a printing press. They can print this world money called a geeky name: the special drawing right, or the SDR. But just think of it as 'world money', because that’s what it is. So, the Fed has a printing press; they can print dollars. The European Central Bank has a printing press; they can print euros. The IMF has a printing press; they can print SDRs. An SDR is not backed by anything, it’s just this kind of world money. That’s where the liquidity will come from, with an important difference. The IMF is not that nimble. It will take six to eight months. Last time it took 11 months, maybe they can do it faster. But, it’ll take a few months to print this new world money.
In the meantime, if the central banks are tapped out and the IMF is taking six months or so to issue the SDRs to reliquify the system, what are the elites going to do in the meantime when they can’t print the money? They’re going to lock down the system. Money market funds are going to spend redemptions. Banks are going to be closed. ATMs will be reprogrammed so you can get max $300 a day for gas and groceries. Stock exchanges will close. By the way, all this has happened before. None of what I’m talking about is new. It has all happened before.
So, in 1998, the Fed printed the money and gave it to you. In 2008, they printed the money and gave it to you. In 2018, if not sooner, they’re not going to able to print the money, they’re not going to let you have your money. Instead, they’re going to lock down the system.

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