Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Overnight


It came somewhat as a surprise. Few were expecting it. The last time it happened was way back in 2008. Reuters reported:

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) surprised the markets on Wednesday with an agreement to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day, in an effort to support oil prices. Crude oil prices have declined by more than half since mid-2014 because of global oversupply and an increase of U.S. shale production

"The first joint production cut by OPEC-Russia in eight years is likely to accelerate the rebalancing of the crude oil market and provide a durable support to oil prices [but] higher oil prices would have quite disparate effects on different EM Asian countries." said Chang Wei Liang from Mizuho Bank Singapore, in a note on Thursday.

During Asian trade, Brent futures were up 0.02 percent at $51.85 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures were down 0.06 percent at $49.47.

That pushed at one point Nikkei 225  higher early on more than 2% and it carried other regional markets for the most part with it. The Hang Send was up 0.70%; the Kospi 0.11%; the Singapore Straight Times rallied  0.7% and the Shanghai Composite gained 0.5%. It was the highest the Nikkei has traded since last December and the broader Topix tacked on a 0.9% gain. The ASX 200 gained 1.1% to close at 5,500.2, again helped by the upswing in oil.

In currencies the dollar was trading at 101.46 against a basket of major currencies. Rising bonds yields, especially in the U.S. pulled  money out of Asia since the election, weakening regional currencies. Some are asking what comes next in the oil market. One analyst noted:

OPEC has agreed to cut production by about 1.2 million barrels per day, or about 4.5 percent of current production, to 32.5 million barrels per day.

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia faces the unenviable tasks of policing cartel members and keeping crude prices within a range that will relieve pressure on oil-producing countries' economies, but which will dissuade non-OPEC producers from increasing output.

Analysts broadly expect an agreement to boost oil prices above $50 a barrel and keep them there. Prices have wavered between about $40 and $54 since the spring. Commodity watchers also believe the deal will set up a long-awaited balance between oil supply and demand in the first half of next year. The market has been oversupplied for more than two years, by as much as 2 million barrels a day.

Gold traded flat, off only slightly at $1,170.48 an ounce. In the previous session gold touched it lowest level since last February while the dollar held near its 9-month highs against the yen at 114.











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