Charts they say tell their own tale. Here's one of interest since all the recent run-up in the market, especially the small cap stocks and the U.S. dollar. How much is real and how much emotion and how much is left?
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There is a school of thinkers among us who, though in some quarters might be considered dinosaurs in the business, harbor presumably valuable historical market experience, and always are attuned to conditions that might indicate either trend exhaustion-- when investors believe economic conditions are extremely weak or strong (not the case now)—or-- have a reason to be extremely pessimistic or optimistic about the future.
If the pendulum of investor sentiment was in the process of swinging painfully slowly from the former to the latter, then the election of Donald Trump to POTUS feels like it has accelerated the “rate of pendulum swing” (justifiably or not) towards optimism—perhaps excessive optimism in a very brief period.
After a 7-year bull market in equities perpetuated by super easy monetary conditions, amid disappointing and sluggish economic growth, the implication of the shocking Trump victory-- i.e., the President-elect's comparatively aggressive pro-growth agenda, and the acute market optimism it has engendered-- could very well qualify as the "final catalytic euphoric blow-off" of the 2009-2016 bull market.
The question is whether the vertical price advance during November in general, and since the early hours of November 9 th , already has satisfied or largely discounted, the emotional reaction?
.businessinsider.com/high-yield-might-be-flashing-a-warning-sign-for-stocks-2016-11?
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There is a school of thinkers among us who, though in some quarters might be considered dinosaurs in the business, harbor presumably valuable historical market experience, and always are attuned to conditions that might indicate either trend exhaustion-- when investors believe economic conditions are extremely weak or strong (not the case now)—or-- have a reason to be extremely pessimistic or optimistic about the future.
If the pendulum of investor sentiment was in the process of swinging painfully slowly from the former to the latter, then the election of Donald Trump to POTUS feels like it has accelerated the “rate of pendulum swing” (justifiably or not) towards optimism—perhaps excessive optimism in a very brief period.
After a 7-year bull market in equities perpetuated by super easy monetary conditions, amid disappointing and sluggish economic growth, the implication of the shocking Trump victory-- i.e., the President-elect's comparatively aggressive pro-growth agenda, and the acute market optimism it has engendered-- could very well qualify as the "final catalytic euphoric blow-off" of the 2009-2016 bull market.
The question is whether the vertical price advance during November in general, and since the early hours of November 9 th , already has satisfied or largely discounted, the emotional reaction?
.businessinsider.com/high-yield-might-be-flashing-a-warning-sign-for-stocks-2016-11?
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