Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Overnight

The 10-year Japanese government bond yield did something it has not done in a while, moved into positive territory Tuesday and early Wednesday the Nikkei 225 responded to that and a weaker yen to tack on 1.2% and trade at 17,882.08.

Again,despite all the negativity about Trump investors seemed convinced his proposed programs will lead to inflation and higher fiscal spending as it pushed the U.S.dollar to a five-month high against the yen at 109.34. The ASX 200 was up 0.1%, the Kospi added 0.72%, the Hang Seng edged 0.525% higher while most Asian currencies held their ground against a strengthening dollar. Asian financials were one of the big winners as Trump's policies are viewed by many as being good for banks.

One news organization noted: "Overnight, American banks rose as investors largely stuck with the recent trend of dumping bonds and dividend-paying shares like utilities in favor of financial and infrastructure shares. One news organization noted:  "Overnight, American banks rose as investors largely stuck with the recent trend of dumping bonds and dividend-paying shares like utilities in favor of financial and infrastructure shares." 

Another reported:  "Meanwhile, crude oil prices shot up overnight, as members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries hammered out the details of a proposed output cut, which helped shares of producers across Asia. Japanese oil explorer Inpex 1605, +3.00%   was 3.5% higher, while Japan Petroleum Exploration 1662, +2.24%   added 2.3%. Australia’s Oil Search OSH, +3.35%   and Woodside Petroleum WPL, +2.44%   jumped 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively. Brent, the global oil benchmark, was recently down 0.3% after rallying more than 3.0% in the previous session. The OPEC news “gave a lot of optimism,” said Jingyi Pan, a market strategist at IG Markets. “We are pretty close to the [Nov. 30] meeting, so some of this optimism is getting priced into the market."

Gold investors still seem to be trying to figure out which is it: tax cuts or more fiscal spending or both
with the Trumpster as the yellow metal traded at 1230.40 an ounce. The bond sell-off seems to be saying it will be higher interest rates which would be negative for gold prices. But could higher rates fool investors and push gold higher as some believe? Time will tell.

http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-11-15/images/gold_20161115.png


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