WILL SOMEONE MAKE A MOTION?

t. man hatter

Few want a market that gets ahead of itself since that could put an end to the party these same people are enjoying.

Yet that seems to be the harbinger for what the Janet Yellen-led Federal Reserve is trying to gauge. To use a time-worn analogy, it's sort of like boiling the frog. You start with cool water and gradually keep increasing the temperature. By the time the frog suspects anything it's too late.

Consumption is now 70% of the U.S. economy. But the savings rate is also at the highest its been since this time last year. Predictions for the S&P 500, closing yesterday at 1,988, for 2250 to 2300 by the end of this year are beginning to pop up like spring flowers.

We're not saying it can't happen. There's never a shortage of wishful thinking. Given the contrariness of this market so far it's probably a decent bet. But we are not too concerned with the rest of 2013. At 2,300 before the clock ticks in a new year would most likely cause to us sell without looking into the rear view mirror.

After perusing Yellen's comments yesterday, one thing remains certain. If and when she decides to leave the Fed, she could have a decent future at hedge fund work given all the hedging she did yesterday.  Catchy names like Yellen's Mincing Words Fund keep coming to mind.

Yellen's latest screed revealed the Fed is counting the dots on 19 indicators or LMCI, the labor market conditions index. You gotta love this one. It's something only a bunch of academic economists could conceive.

If 19 indicators doesn't sound like a huge conference table to you, well, we wish you well in your delusions. Conference tables and their members are about as far removed from keeping things simple as it gets. And if history has any value, it's even worse when those seated there are a bunch of academic economists.

Next there's  ECB President Mario Draghi, a presenter at this years conference. It's important to recall these folks don't vegetate in a vacuum. Draghi has an MIT connection that has its own set of academic tentacles.

With unemployment conservatively estimated at 11.5% across the EU, Draghi and his 23 member band of central bankers are in a world of hurt otherwise known as pressure to do something. Apparently, Draghi's never heard the old military stratagem, when one is getting one's butt kicked:

Move forward or backward. Don't just sit or stand there. Do something.

But they probably don't teach that at MIT. Having worked a number of years with professional fighters from the lowest to the higher levels of competition, we've yet to come across one who doesn't understand this simple principle.

Yet elitist view these people as dumb.

Oh well! Just know this, like the ring you're in this on your own. The ring teaches vital lessons. Every time you lose your concentration you up the odds of getting hurt. And whenever you make a mistake there's no delay in the punishment, something that bureaucrats and politicians with all their damage control nonsense never have to deal with.