Tuesday, November 10, 2015

HOMEWORK


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As rig counts continue to decline, more hand wringing about China's slowdown and a host of other concerns about slow global growth, here's a chart you might want look at. It's from  
oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Big-Week-For-The-Oil-Markets-Ahead-Of-OPEC-Meeting.

Along with an interesting read about energy, it raises some questions. What do these traders know, if anything, that so many others seem not to know? Has the energy glut seen it's worst days and so on. Hedge funds of late have been wrong about many issues, but is that just an aberration or are they onto something here?

Much of today's news in the industry centers on the International Energy Agency's recent report about OPEC's apparent stubbornness to cut production. The fear here is sustained low prices for an indefinite period. Several members--Venezuela, Iran and Algeria--to name a few, face crying time again with prices at this level.

But they are not alone as non-OPEC members pick up the refrain. Much of this comes before what could be a difficult meeting early next month. Where will energy prices settle for 2016 is the latest market topic of conversation and there, like always, is no paucity of opinions. Is it the current price or $60 or $80 a barrel?

That's a scenarios nearly as opaque at the black gold itself. About the only thing that remains clear is investors have their homework cut out for them.

http://cdn.oilprice.com/images/tinymce/Copy%20of%20Mathulk3.jpg


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