Wednesday, November 25, 2015

PRE-HOLIDAY FOOD FOR THOUGHT

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRngOTMzA8ihWxP9Wksp-3ii6hJpaCAV4p-f2SPWAA2X-FoHog_OA

More easing ahead from ECB.
The ECB meets on December 3 and is widely expected to loosen policy via a further cut in the deposit rate or extending and expanding its bond-buying stimulus to stave off the threat of deflation.
reuters.com/article/2015/11/25/us-global-markets

Commodities news continues its bleak downturn and a stronger dollar won't help.
The gauge tracking the performance of 22 natural resources has plunged two-thirds from its peak, to the lowest level since 1999. That shows it’s back to square one for the so-called commodity super 
cycle, a hunger for coal, oil and metals from Chinese manufacturers that powered a bull market for about a decade until 2011. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-25/if-china-killed-commodities-super-cycle-fed-is-about-to-bury-it

Geopolitical events present risks to investing. It's not like the globe is getting any safer.
money.cnn.com/gallery/investing/2015/11/24/isis-russia-china-geopolitical-threats-2016

U.S. Consumer confidence drops. wsj.com/articles/consumers-outlook-on-u-s-economy-down-sharply-in-november

There's nothing like gratitude. It belongs among the most practical things in your life. Given the start of the holiday season, this post is more than a reminder. It's a must read.
cnbc.com/2015/11/24/what-am-i-thankful-for-the-next-5-minutes-joe-terranova-commentary

Before and after pictures are well known. So here's a before and after note about how stocks perform before and after the Big Meal every November.
marketwatch.com/story/how-stocks-perform-before-and-after-thanksgiving-2015-11-24

Some investment food for thought.
Everyone has grown accustomed to thinking about emerging markets as a monolith -- a collection of undifferentiated countries aspiring to the big leagues, with all of the heft and stability of more developed economies,” writes Kaissar.
He goes on to separate the five most expensive markets from the five least expensive (based on their normalized P/Es) and calculated an average P/E for each.
“The five most expensive trade at an average P/E of 16.8, whereas the five least expensive trade at an average P/E of 8.5 -- half the price,” he adds. “For example, Brazil and Russia are laughably low by any measure, even after accounting for the incremental emerging market risk and whatever idiosyncratic risks you wish to attribute to them (Vladimir Putin, anyone?). At the same time, the valuations in China and India are princely by any measure, particularly after accounting for the incremental emerging market risk, to say nothing of their own unique risks.” barrons.com/articles/can-stocks-rise-on-wave-of-global-liquidity-



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