Sunday, January 24, 2016
AN INTERESTING SPECIMEN
People want it seems to get all befuddled by the recent selloff in the market. But even a hot water bottle looses it heat after a while.
Too simple, you say. Not really. Big long term themes take a while to go snap, crackle and pop. That's the bane of human nature. We want it all to happen now. Nearly all the MSM cheerleaders wanted to believe the Fed's QE magic elixir would, like a good car wax, do the job. And it did put a gloss on things. But then glosses have a way of joining hot water bottles.
The stock market once the Fed confiscated the punch bowl, like the daring trapeze artist in the center ring, has been flying without a net. Current themes center on worries about China, the energy sector, more bankruptcies and the junk bond market partly fueled by the discord in the energy sector. So much for correlation. And those once staunch, reliable dividends, partly fueled by some sleight of the hand bookkeeping, are one of the newer concerns.
And what will the good doctors at the Fed do come April when the next rate hike is expected? If you go around suggesting the Fed, like it central banking brothers around the globe, are out of bullets, you're going to be less welcome than a flat tire in a rough neighborhood at two in the morning. Then there's the strong dollar and it's concomitant damage.
A lot of gurus say it's not as strong as it's been in previous episodes. And we say so what. Does it have to be before tanking? When you say the dollar, you're talking petrodollar in many respects and that itself is a growing issue. Raising interest rates will make that situation even worse. If you're an emerging market country dependent on the price of oil already gasping for air, you will love the Fed tightening that garrote even more.
Judging by all the turmoil around the globe, the U.S. has it's fair share of enemies. Enemies don't just crop up without reasons, pretended or otherwise. This is an election year. It's not just a referendum on the economy, jobs, stagnate living standards, that suspect data the Fed belches up periodically, and a pathetic statement like the CEO of Blackrock recently mouthed, it's about a longtime dreadful foreign policy made even more dreadful by this administration.
That's the not-so-scary part. The real scary part is most of the candidates in this election are guaranteed to make it even worse. Some of the big banks with exposure to the energy patch aren't pressing the strict covenants on their loans for fear of creating more bankruptcies. Wouldn't it be nice if you and I could do that?
My creditors stipulate I have to pay by a certain date or else pay a penalty. The IRS says the same, plus a penalty plus interest based on rates higher than that of the worst credit cards. And this billionaire genius at Blackrock says he doesn't understand all the anger afoot today.
He's an interesting specimen. Some might suggest the title of the firm he oversees is appropriately named.
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