Wednesday, January 6, 2016

OUR VIEW

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A recent blurb in the WSJ stated that ECB Chief Mario Dragi in 2012 "effectively stopped the eurozone debt crisis in its tracks; quantitative easing has tamed the bond market such that last year's Greek crisis and messy  politics in Spain and Portugal only had a fleeting effect."

The implied point here is rest easy investors these things have been solved, not just swept under the huge QE rug.

"But like other central banks," the blurb goes on, "it's finding boosting inflation a tricky task." In short, Oh where, oh where has inflation gone? The author then states, after figuring in all the wacky ways they figure inflation, ways fathomed only by magicians and landlords, it was flat for the EU in 2015. And that's the tragedy. No inflation.

The benchmark for inflation is some meaningless 2 percent target that came no doubt from inside the statistical bowels of a government basement. Why, you ask, 2 percent and not 3 or 4 percent? And why are nearly all major central banks hewing to this same one-size-fits all number? Is this part of the globalization meme too? Like Dumas' Three Musketers, all for one and one for all?

 Once this magical number is reached or some close facsimile all will be be wonderful again and the previous charade will continue on its merry way. Greece, Portugal, Spain and all those sickly Italian banks will sudden fall into economic cadence and the refugees of the world rejoice.

But this is an artificially enforced form of price dicovery that will end badly.

That's our view. We hope you know yours.



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