Monday, April 18, 2016

OVERNIGHT

It was an up day of trading for most Asian markets overnight as shares in the Nikkei 225 led the way, advancing 3.5% gaining back most of what it gave up a day earlier. The deal that turned into a no deal among oil producers over the weekend sent downward ripples through Monday's markets coupled with the earthquake that tore through earlier in the week.

The yen weakened against the dollar helping fuel Tuesday's rally. Exporters rebounded owing to the weaker yen as did bank shares.The dollar gained 0.2% against the yen at 109.10 after hitting a one-week low Monday at 107.75.

Two other markets that rallied were the Australian ASX 200, up 1.13%, and the Hang Send, up 0.84%. The Kospi also edged slightly higher by 0.15%.  For China it was a slightly different tune with the Shanghai Composite down 0.1% while the Shenzhen Composite fell 0.12%.

Brent crude trade at $42.83 a barrel down slightly as some were saying the correlation between share and energy price broke down. The WSJ reported the following:

Remember when what was bad for oil was bad for stocks, and vice versa? That isn’t true anymore.

For investors, this indicates the adverse feedback loops that were rattling markets earlier this year have, for the moment, been broken. A good thing—though it may also make the Federal Reserve more comfortable about raising rates.
Not so long ago, the easiest way to figure out where U.S. stocks were headed was to look at oil. There were only two days in the 20-day trading period that ended Feb. 12 that the front-month Nymex crude oil contract and the S&P 500 went in opposite directions. The correlation between daily oil and stock price changes during that period was an atypically high 0.74, with 1 representing perfect correlation and zero no relation whatsoever.



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