Monday, April 11, 2016

OVERNIGHT

What was once all the rage, Abernomics, now finds itself embroiled in growing investor skepticism as the Nikkei though up slightly in trading Tuesday morning is down 16% so far in 2016 and on course some believe to retrace its 40% gain from 2012 at the start of Abernomics.

Prospects of a weaker U.S. dollar and interest rate hikes at least for now on hold pushed gold higher in New York trading for June delivery at $1258 an ounce. The yellow stuff is up 18% on the year despite the MSM's constant jawboning for yielding nothing to hold it. With negative zero interest rates in Japan, the EU, Sweden and Switzerland, investors in gold seem to be saying such cheap talk is just that.

Meanwhile, oil settled back above $40 a barrel helped out by the weaker dollar. A weaker dollar bodes trouble for Japanese officials as some inflection point might be hit soon, calling for more intervention. Earnings season both in Japan and the U.S. loom over markets also.

Here's an overnight look from Reuters.

TOKYO, April 12 Japan's Nikkei share average rose on Tuesday morning as the dollar gained versus the yen in early morning trade, lifting cyclical stocks such as exporters as well as recently battered banking shares.
Weakness in the dollar kept the market worried after it slumped to a 17-month low of 107.63 yen on Monday but by 0146 GMT on Tuesday, the dollar stood at 108.14 yen.
The Nikkei gained 1.0 percent to 15,903.30 in midmorning trade. The benchmark index has fallen 16 percent this year, while it is retracing about 40 percent of gains since the start of 'Abenomics' in 2012.
Traders said that Japanese equities are swayed by foreign exchange rates, with Japan Inc's last fiscal years' earnings announcements scheduled within a few weeks. Investors will likely start taking positions after companies release their forecasts for this fiscal year, they said.
They added that the Nikkei may stay sluggish until then, as many investors remain sceptical of 'Abenomics."
"Investors are frustrated about the lack of effective measures against the strong yen," said Hikaru Sato, senior technical analyst at Daiwa Securities. "Confidence in Japanese stocks has waned since the end of last year and it still hasn't recovered."
Banking stocks were leading the gains on Tuesday, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group rising 4.8 percent and Mizuho Financial Group gaining 4.2 percent.

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