Shareholder Pressure At Oxy
http://labusinessjournal.com/news/2013/apr/29/oxy-board-moves-retain-chazen-ceo/
Japanese Household Spending Up
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/30/us-japan-economy-idUSBRE93T03R20130430
Flight Taxes
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323528404578452851588518618.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop
Fashion Truck In Your Future
http://www.ksdk.com/news/article/377354/3/City-forces-new-fashion-truck-off-streets-of-St-Louis
Solar Future
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/Chart-of-the-Day253A-Internet-Then/4/29/2013/id/49537
Dr. Doom Speaks
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/29/investing/roubini-stocks/index.html
This Is How Much They Hate Austerity
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2013/apr/29/austerity-kills-health-europe-us
Hidden Debt
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/29/us-emerging-private-debt-idUSBRE93S0HV20130429
Facebook Versus Twitter
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/04/24/twitter-is-aiming-for-facebooks-crown.aspx
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Monday, April 29, 2013
MUCHO UNCERTAINTY
Some people, God bless 'em, you just got to love.
Bill McNabb, the CEO of Vanguard Group, is one of them. In a WSJ Opinion piece today after listing a litany of uncertainties vexing economic recovery--"regulatory policy, uncertainty about monetary policy, uncertainty about foreign policy, uncertainty about U.S. fiscal policy and the national debt," concludes his piece with this paragraph:
The good news is that if reform is enacted, and the costly pall of uncertainty is lifted, the U.S. economy has the potential to bounce back, creating the growth and jobs that are so badly needed. I am confident that our leaders in Washington can make it happen.
That's a lot of uncertainty to begin with. And you gotta love the qualifiers. Such uncertainty he goes on to say Vanguard estimates " has created a $261 billion drag on the U.S. economy."
He could've been a bit more sanguine and rounded up the number at $260 billion.
Every time Congress fails to resolve one of these issues, McNabb claims his firm receives a variety of questions like how it affects their retirements to should they just put their money in a mattress.
Anyone care to hazard how McNabb answers this last one?
Bill McNabb, the CEO of Vanguard Group, is one of them. In a WSJ Opinion piece today after listing a litany of uncertainties vexing economic recovery--"regulatory policy, uncertainty about monetary policy, uncertainty about foreign policy, uncertainty about U.S. fiscal policy and the national debt," concludes his piece with this paragraph:
The good news is that if reform is enacted, and the costly pall of uncertainty is lifted, the U.S. economy has the potential to bounce back, creating the growth and jobs that are so badly needed. I am confident that our leaders in Washington can make it happen.
That's a lot of uncertainty to begin with. And you gotta love the qualifiers. Such uncertainty he goes on to say Vanguard estimates " has created a $261 billion drag on the U.S. economy."
He could've been a bit more sanguine and rounded up the number at $260 billion.
Every time Congress fails to resolve one of these issues, McNabb claims his firm receives a variety of questions like how it affects their retirements to should they just put their money in a mattress.
Anyone care to hazard how McNabb answers this last one?
BRIEFS
Here's one of the hidden costs that increase the cost of health care bureaucrats and politicians don't want to tell you about: pushy attorneys, a legal system out of control and time demands, to name a few.
Of note is this comes from a Canadian practitioner, not some so-called greedy American doctor, where the health care system is supposed to be like my old girlfriend--so good and so fine.
http://boards.medscape.com/forums?128@708.Di81agmIflw@.2a3555a6!comment=1&cat=All
------
It's time to tell them what we want. We hate to keep bringing up the airport mess, but it's relevant. One of the basic characteristics of humans is they will expand their power to the maximum given the leaway.
Over the years the more power you give up to politicians and bureaucrats, the more they will seek to maximize that power by a factor of three. Forget party labels; that's all political BS. One of the anti-fiscal responsibility arguments centers on the political party BS. It's a sham.
Both of these groups are about one thing--self-perpetuation.
http://www.wallstreetinsightsandindictments.com/2013/04/the-tbtf-act-just-revived-the-spirit-of-glass-steagall/
------
Of note is this comes from a Canadian practitioner, not some so-called greedy American doctor, where the health care system is supposed to be like my old girlfriend--so good and so fine.
http://boards.medscape.com/forums?128@708.Di81agmIflw@.2a3555a6!comment=1&cat=All
------
It's time to tell them what we want. We hate to keep bringing up the airport mess, but it's relevant. One of the basic characteristics of humans is they will expand their power to the maximum given the leaway.
Over the years the more power you give up to politicians and bureaucrats, the more they will seek to maximize that power by a factor of three. Forget party labels; that's all political BS. One of the anti-fiscal responsibility arguments centers on the political party BS. It's a sham.
Both of these groups are about one thing--self-perpetuation.
http://www.wallstreetinsightsandindictments.com/2013/04/the-tbtf-act-just-revived-the-spirit-of-glass-steagall/
------
ONE SIDE OF THE BOAT
One side of the boat is starting to fill up.
The name of the vessel could easily be: "Could Persist For Years." That's becoming the mantra it appears for more and more money mangers quoted in financial pages. The reference is to Ben Bernanke and the Fed's next-to-zero interest rate scheme.
And a scheme is what it is, though in the British vernacular the terms carries less questionable baggage. We prefer the good old American usage, as in up to tomfoolery.
Much of this sentiment comes from the belief there's no inflation, a point of view that could turn out to be one of the biggest lies ever told. But we'll leave that for later. If the golden rule is those who hold the gold make the rules, the same holds for the CPI.
Check out chained CPI. It might be playing at a venue near you soon if certain people get their way. Without getting into a rant, the chained CPI is like the air traffic controller mess. You deserve it if you stand for it.
Dividends historically have played a large part in total return, more so at some times than others. We like dividends as well as the next fella. What we don't like is the double taxation, a government scheme in the best American usage of the term.
Again it's a question of whom do you believe. During the tech stock mania, those stocks represented a big percentage of the S&P 500 value. Same case when energy stocks soared.
Somehow these things usually find their way back to the mean.
The name of the vessel could easily be: "Could Persist For Years." That's becoming the mantra it appears for more and more money mangers quoted in financial pages. The reference is to Ben Bernanke and the Fed's next-to-zero interest rate scheme.
And a scheme is what it is, though in the British vernacular the terms carries less questionable baggage. We prefer the good old American usage, as in up to tomfoolery.
Much of this sentiment comes from the belief there's no inflation, a point of view that could turn out to be one of the biggest lies ever told. But we'll leave that for later. If the golden rule is those who hold the gold make the rules, the same holds for the CPI.
Check out chained CPI. It might be playing at a venue near you soon if certain people get their way. Without getting into a rant, the chained CPI is like the air traffic controller mess. You deserve it if you stand for it.
Dividends historically have played a large part in total return, more so at some times than others. We like dividends as well as the next fella. What we don't like is the double taxation, a government scheme in the best American usage of the term.
Again it's a question of whom do you believe. During the tech stock mania, those stocks represented a big percentage of the S&P 500 value. Same case when energy stocks soared.
Somehow these things usually find their way back to the mean.
MONDAY READS
Iranian Sanctions
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/29/iran-sanctions-palmoil-idUSL4N0BZ44W20130429
Trouble In Luxembourg
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/4/26/luxembourg-is-not-the-next-cyprus-not-yet-but.html
Dollar-Yen Top? http://www.cnbc.com/id/100682468
Inside Syria
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/28/us-syria-crisis-life-insight-idUSBRE93R02K20130428
Feeling The Slowdown
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323798104578450660680338312.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
Data Versus Earnings
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/data-to-overtake-earnings-as-may-looms-2013-04-28
Spanish Unemployment
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/28/spain-indignados-protests-state-of-mind
ECB Rate Cuts--When?
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/29/news/economy/ecb-interest-rates/index.html
Pendulum May Be Swinging
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323789704578446614144636002.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
Trouble In Luxembourg
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/4/26/luxembourg-is-not-the-next-cyprus-not-yet-but.html
Dollar-Yen Top? http://www.cnbc.com/id/100682468
Inside Syria
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/28/us-syria-crisis-life-insight-idUSBRE93R02K20130428
Feeling The Slowdown
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323798104578450660680338312.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
Data Versus Earnings
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/data-to-overtake-earnings-as-may-looms-2013-04-28
Spanish Unemployment
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/28/spain-indignados-protests-state-of-mind
ECB Rate Cuts--When?
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/29/news/economy/ecb-interest-rates/index.html
Pendulum May Be Swinging
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323789704578446614144636002.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
Sunday, April 28, 2013
FULL DISCLOSURE
I was driving back from Las Vegas the day the Vioxx storm hit Merck, the giant drug maker.
At the time my partner and I had an office in Henderson, a burgeoning LV suburb, and our home base in Newport Beach. My partner had an extensive background in real estate and insurance, once having his own real estate school and multiple RE offices, before deciding to downsize and simplify life.
We split the blood, sweat and toil right down the middle at the firms. He handled the RE and I did the equity and commodity side. The bottom of the LV housing market had yet to drop. Three of our clients earlier requested a meeting to discuss timing.
All had leveraged multiple real state deals, buying up large numbers of houses to rent for the positive cash flow and later dump into strength. Variable interest rates were low and home prices were rising faster than Usain Bolt runs a 100 meters. It was a sweet, money-making deal.
A few years later things started to change. Prices were going up so fast that all of a sudden cash flows turned negative on any new deals. The low hanging fruit was all but gone. Our clients requested another meeting again to discuss timing. This time we urged them to TP&H. Take all profits and hide. And after some lively exchanges over two days, that's what they did.
For the next several months prices continued up and we caught some hell. Then one evening the Fat Lady's limousine quietly rolled into the City of Lights.
The first thing we did when we returned to the office the afternoon of the Vioxx news is start looking at Merck puts, not to buy but to sell. We knew the stock was in deep, but it would most likely survive. Remember there are no absolutes. Sometimes most likely is the best you're going to get.
Pharmaceutical research was hardly new to me. Merck had once been a $90 number with an outstanding research crew. The MSM focused, as is their want, on the short-term drama, the heart attacks and the sensational side. The bigger issue was would Merck survive and in what form and what was their defense?
Several years ago a colleague got sued by his ex-live-girl friend. It was about the money. He hired a noted female attorney. Both sides remained intractable. Three days before the case was going to trial he settled. When I asked why over lunch one day, he told me they had negotiated a lesser, known amount, even though he didn't want to give her a nickel. The trial was set for the Palm Springs area.
Then he added: "I got one of the best female attorneys around telling me the jury will probably be nine women, all housewives, and three men. She'll take the stand, start crying, talk about your wealth, and then the number if she wins is open-ended. Do you want to risk it."
Some time later he laughingly told me he got off easy. We knew Merck wasn't going to get off easy. But selling puts with a decent premium at the right time, like those houses a few years later, to get the stock possibly put to us in the high 20s and low 30s even if they cut out the dividend looked like a good risk-reward scenario.
One of the attorneys who successfully argued Merck's case at the time is now CEO. Not too long ago he persuaded the former successful head of research during Merck's glory days to come out of retirement.
Merck's like most of us, got some problems. But from where we sit, they got a lot more things going for them.
And for the sake of full disclosure, we still own some of that stock.
At the time my partner and I had an office in Henderson, a burgeoning LV suburb, and our home base in Newport Beach. My partner had an extensive background in real estate and insurance, once having his own real estate school and multiple RE offices, before deciding to downsize and simplify life.
We split the blood, sweat and toil right down the middle at the firms. He handled the RE and I did the equity and commodity side. The bottom of the LV housing market had yet to drop. Three of our clients earlier requested a meeting to discuss timing.
All had leveraged multiple real state deals, buying up large numbers of houses to rent for the positive cash flow and later dump into strength. Variable interest rates were low and home prices were rising faster than Usain Bolt runs a 100 meters. It was a sweet, money-making deal.
A few years later things started to change. Prices were going up so fast that all of a sudden cash flows turned negative on any new deals. The low hanging fruit was all but gone. Our clients requested another meeting again to discuss timing. This time we urged them to TP&H. Take all profits and hide. And after some lively exchanges over two days, that's what they did.
For the next several months prices continued up and we caught some hell. Then one evening the Fat Lady's limousine quietly rolled into the City of Lights.
The first thing we did when we returned to the office the afternoon of the Vioxx news is start looking at Merck puts, not to buy but to sell. We knew the stock was in deep, but it would most likely survive. Remember there are no absolutes. Sometimes most likely is the best you're going to get.
Pharmaceutical research was hardly new to me. Merck had once been a $90 number with an outstanding research crew. The MSM focused, as is their want, on the short-term drama, the heart attacks and the sensational side. The bigger issue was would Merck survive and in what form and what was their defense?
Several years ago a colleague got sued by his ex-live-girl friend. It was about the money. He hired a noted female attorney. Both sides remained intractable. Three days before the case was going to trial he settled. When I asked why over lunch one day, he told me they had negotiated a lesser, known amount, even though he didn't want to give her a nickel. The trial was set for the Palm Springs area.
Then he added: "I got one of the best female attorneys around telling me the jury will probably be nine women, all housewives, and three men. She'll take the stand, start crying, talk about your wealth, and then the number if she wins is open-ended. Do you want to risk it."
Some time later he laughingly told me he got off easy. We knew Merck wasn't going to get off easy. But selling puts with a decent premium at the right time, like those houses a few years later, to get the stock possibly put to us in the high 20s and low 30s even if they cut out the dividend looked like a good risk-reward scenario.
One of the attorneys who successfully argued Merck's case at the time is now CEO. Not too long ago he persuaded the former successful head of research during Merck's glory days to come out of retirement.
Merck's like most of us, got some problems. But from where we sit, they got a lot more things going for them.
And for the sake of full disclosure, we still own some of that stock.
CONTRARIAN BLOOD
If there's an ounce of contrarian blood in you, take a look at FCX and NEM, two equities that are about as unwanted as rain at a picnic. Both are near their 52 week lows. Both are in the mining and metals business, two sectors about as unwelcome as a case of the aviary flu at a chicken farm.
See YUM for the correlation there.
There's a reason for rain and there's a reason for unwanted. Meteorologists are the original hedge crowd: 30% chance of rain, sleet or indigestion after that huge Thanksgiving feast.
Meteorology has some science behind it. Key word some. Unwanted equities frequently have some science behind their status, too, the numbers. In this case, the global GDP numbers for starters. Right now they resemble my first love without make-up. I always had a thing for less attractive attractive ladies. You just know 'em when you see 'em.
See YUM for the correlation there.
There's a reason for rain and there's a reason for unwanted. Meteorologists are the original hedge crowd: 30% chance of rain, sleet or indigestion after that huge Thanksgiving feast.
Meteorology has some science behind it. Key word some. Unwanted equities frequently have some science behind their status, too, the numbers. In this case, the global GDP numbers for starters. Right now they resemble my first love without make-up. I always had a thing for less attractive attractive ladies. You just know 'em when you see 'em.
Saturday, April 27, 2013
WEEKEND READS
LA Banker And Ex-General And Syria
http://labusinessjournal.com/news/2013/apr/26/l-banker-announce-syria-reconstruction-fund/
Twin Bubbles?
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/26/where-is-the-larger-bubble-sp500-index-or-us-treas?ref=hp&t=financials&page=2
Time Market Go Google
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/26/investing/google-search-markets/index.html
The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung Yet
http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/Jim-Rogers-Thinks-Gold-Will-Resume/4/26/2013/id/49504
Charts From BEA
http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/direct/137332780?extension=pdf&ft=1367018424<=1367022034&source=embed&user_id=215643384&uahk=fmv8mK0N0rVjdcpnzmivhmT9xJY
All Things To All Folks
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/04/24/the-white-houses-all-of-the-above-energy-strategy-goes-global/
http://labusinessjournal.com/news/2013/apr/26/l-banker-announce-syria-reconstruction-fund/
Twin Bubbles?
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/26/where-is-the-larger-bubble-sp500-index-or-us-treas?ref=hp&t=financials&page=2
Time Market Go Google
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/26/investing/google-search-markets/index.html
The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung Yet
http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/Jim-Rogers-Thinks-Gold-Will-Resume/4/26/2013/id/49504
Charts From BEA
http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/direct/137332780?extension=pdf&ft=1367018424<=1367022034&source=embed&user_id=215643384&uahk=fmv8mK0N0rVjdcpnzmivhmT9xJY
All Things To All Folks
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/04/24/the-white-houses-all-of-the-above-energy-strategy-goes-global/
Friday, April 26, 2013
THE ONE YOU DON'T SEE
We just wrote a piece about Sallie Mae's bond offering recall, saying risk outweighed reward.
Another story in today's WSJ suggests the market is raising rates ahead of the Fed--as is usually the case--concerns mortgage securities backed by loans without government guarantees.
Once upon a time it was a huge market. It's a market the government hopes to rekindle for obvious reasons, not the least of which is confidence in the whole damn mortgage system.
In January premiums on deals sold as low as "0.97 percentage point for a yield of less than 2%." Like these Sallie Mae bonds, investors seem to be shying away from mortgage backed securities as more are hitting the market.
Now those mortgage securities are yielding nearly 2.6%, 1.75% premium above the interest rate benchmark. Concern centers on higher interest rates down the road. Refinancing of these mortgages has decelerated significantly. Investors don't want to get squeezed in an interest rate hike.
How much farther down the road, well, according to another story today, Bernanke and crew are already dipping their big toe into what effect an interest rate hike would have on those TBTF banks.
Stay tuned. In boxing we have a saying: it's the one you don't see that does the damage.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323335404578445210965385442.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_2
Another story in today's WSJ suggests the market is raising rates ahead of the Fed--as is usually the case--concerns mortgage securities backed by loans without government guarantees.
Once upon a time it was a huge market. It's a market the government hopes to rekindle for obvious reasons, not the least of which is confidence in the whole damn mortgage system.
In January premiums on deals sold as low as "0.97 percentage point for a yield of less than 2%." Like these Sallie Mae bonds, investors seem to be shying away from mortgage backed securities as more are hitting the market.
Now those mortgage securities are yielding nearly 2.6%, 1.75% premium above the interest rate benchmark. Concern centers on higher interest rates down the road. Refinancing of these mortgages has decelerated significantly. Investors don't want to get squeezed in an interest rate hike.
How much farther down the road, well, according to another story today, Bernanke and crew are already dipping their big toe into what effect an interest rate hike would have on those TBTF banks.
Stay tuned. In boxing we have a saying: it's the one you don't see that does the damage.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323335404578445210965385442.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_2
BRIEFS
Looks like Spain has caught the California disease: high unemployment and a rising exodus.
Irrespective of the reasons, it's the same message: lack of responsible leadership.
According to Spain's National Statistics Institute, unemployment hit 27.2 percent, which means it most likely even higher. Governments are not known for their being forthright when it comes to negatives news.
A record 6.2 million are out of work, the INE recently reported, and the total number escalated from 26 to 27.2 percent in the first quarter of this year.
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/04/spain-update-running-from-bulls.html#more
------
A lot of smart people think the next bubble to go pop is student loans.
As the percentage of borrowers more than 90 days delinquent rises and concerns about these loans grow, it looks as if investors are starting to send a message: nada mas.
At least that's the message about the more risky tranches of these loans if the recently canceled Sallie Mae bond offering means anything.
These bonds offer higher yields in the main, but those yields depends on how they get packaged. Sallie Mae, the largest non-government student lender, on Thursday had to recall an offering that had been on the market for two weeks owing to lack of interest.
Market translation: not enough reward for level of risk.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323335404578444832431703020.html?KEYWORDS=sallie+mae
-----
Irrespective of the reasons, it's the same message: lack of responsible leadership.
According to Spain's National Statistics Institute, unemployment hit 27.2 percent, which means it most likely even higher. Governments are not known for their being forthright when it comes to negatives news.
A record 6.2 million are out of work, the INE recently reported, and the total number escalated from 26 to 27.2 percent in the first quarter of this year.
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/04/spain-update-running-from-bulls.html#more
------
A lot of smart people think the next bubble to go pop is student loans.
As the percentage of borrowers more than 90 days delinquent rises and concerns about these loans grow, it looks as if investors are starting to send a message: nada mas.
At least that's the message about the more risky tranches of these loans if the recently canceled Sallie Mae bond offering means anything.
These bonds offer higher yields in the main, but those yields depends on how they get packaged. Sallie Mae, the largest non-government student lender, on Thursday had to recall an offering that had been on the market for two weeks owing to lack of interest.
Market translation: not enough reward for level of risk.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323335404578444832431703020.html?KEYWORDS=sallie+mae
-----
FRIDAY READS
Latest GDP Data
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/26/economists-react-persistent-but-underwhelming-growth/
Looking Ahead http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/25/business/janet-l-yellen-possible-fed-successor-has-admirers-and-foes.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Death Of Gold Exaggerated
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/25/gold-rises-most-since-september-as-central-banks-j?ref=hp
Liberty Or Surveillance: Your Choice
http://reason.com/archives/2013/04/25/america-made-a-pact-with-the-devil-after
This Ain't Pennies
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/25/soros-takes-big-stake-in-j-c-penney/
Oxy Reports
http://labusinessjournal.com/news/2013/apr/25/lower-oxy-profit-better-expected/
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/26/economists-react-persistent-but-underwhelming-growth/
Looking Ahead http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/25/business/janet-l-yellen-possible-fed-successor-has-admirers-and-foes.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Death Of Gold Exaggerated
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/25/gold-rises-most-since-september-as-central-banks-j?ref=hp
Liberty Or Surveillance: Your Choice
http://reason.com/archives/2013/04/25/america-made-a-pact-with-the-devil-after
This Ain't Pennies
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/25/soros-takes-big-stake-in-j-c-penney/
Oxy Reports
http://labusinessjournal.com/news/2013/apr/25/lower-oxy-profit-better-expected/
Thursday, April 25, 2013
FLAWED STUDIES
How do you tell a flawed study when you see one?
For most it isn't easy unless you've been around the study business and spent lots of time in the world they're studying. In this case Type 2 diabetes.
The first thing you know all studies have an agenda, though the people involved will deny it. The second thing you want to know is who funded it.
The third thing is how they arrived at the magical number nearly all studies spout. Again, in this case 22%.
The next thing you know every study needs a quote from a so-called expert. And an independent one all the better. This time a statistical one who overwhelms us with the brilliant line:
That tells you fruit juice makers are not the bad guys--yet. Next time you buy a bottle or can of fruit juice check out how much sugar it contains, if you can.
For most it isn't easy unless you've been around the study business and spent lots of time in the world they're studying. In this case Type 2 diabetes.
The first thing you know all studies have an agenda, though the people involved will deny it. The second thing you want to know is who funded it.
The third thing is how they arrived at the magical number nearly all studies spout. Again, in this case 22%.
The next thing you know every study needs a quote from a so-called expert. And an independent one all the better. This time a statistical one who overwhelms us with the brilliant line:
"The bottom line is that sugary soft drinks are not good for you - they have no nutritional value and there is evidence that drinking them every day can increase your relative risk for type 2 diabetes," he said in an emailed comment.
Can and relative are interesting choices to describe your everyday risk. Driving on a California freeway everyday can increase your relative risk having an accident too. And we'll put our evidence up against his any time.
The tip off in this study is: "Fruit juice consumption was not linked to diabetes incidence."
That tells you fruit juice makers are not the bad guys--yet. Next time you buy a bottle or can of fruit juice check out how much sugar it contains, if you can.
If you check online you'll see this story was picked up by ABC News and blasted over other outlets.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/25/us-diabetes-drinks-idUSBRE93N1DL20130425
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/25/us-diabetes-drinks-idUSBRE93N1DL20130425
THURSDAY READS
DEFENSE WINS FOR NOW
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703889404578442853939461028.html?mod=BOL_hpp_highlight_bottom#articleTabs_article%3D3
DEFAULTS ALARMING
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/04/24/despite-improvement-in-loan-mod-defaults-report-raises-alarms/
CAN YOU DECIDE?
http://investorplace.com/2013/04/should-i-buy-exxonmobil-shares-3-pros-3-cons/
DO BUYBACKS REALLY BUY LOVE?
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/04/24/for-its-next-feat-apple-will-win-back-investors-with-buybacks/
ONCE IT GETS STARTED
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-05/japan-s-new-stimulus-may-trigger-yen-avalanche-soros-says.html
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
EXOTIC PERMUTATIONS
If the name of the title sounds like one of those fancy spas executives often frequent, in this case it's code for unintended consequences.
But like one of those spas it pretty nice duty if you can get it.
But like one of those spas it pretty nice duty if you can get it.
He added that this wasn't specifically contemplated when such plans were devised a dozen years ago to give executives a way to sell some shares of their own companies despite being exposed to nonpublic information about it. It is, he said, an "exotic permutation."
CLASSIC EXAMPLE
The NYT motto reads "All the news that's fit to print."
After you read the posted story you should know why it ought to say: "All the news that's fit to spin."
Let's start at the top, the title: "The Incredible Shrinking Budget."
The only thing incredible about the incredible shrinking budget is whoever wrote this headline. If nothing else it shows you what contempt the NYT has for you.
The article claims the deficit is not only falling but falling rapidly. They then quote a report from Goldman Sachs aka in many eyes as Government Sachs. This is the same GS that shorted gold then put out a report to clients that gets spread to the public by MSM to short gold.
For anyone but GS that's called front running; it's illegal for you and me. It's also designed to pry the retail crowd loose from their metal ETFs and send a message about the economy.
Take a closer look at the paragraph below.
“Revenues have also exceeded expectations, with a 12 percent gain fiscal year to date. What is more notable is that the strength in revenues preceded the payroll tax hike at the start of the year, and the spending decline does not seem to reflect sequestration, which has just started to take effect.” To translate: the deficit could come in even smaller than currently anticipated because of spending cuts and higher tax rates.
To begin with, there's more qualifiers ("does not seem, "could come") in there than you'll see next month at the Indy 500.
The strength in revenues was no surprise. People cashed in some winnings to avoid higher taxes that they knew are coming. This was true at the state level also. Even tax-crazy California reported higher revenue.
This next paragraph would be even funnier if not for such blatant cheerleading. The growing economy, bolstering tax revenues, reducing the need for spending on unemployment insurance, the budget is finally coming into balance. Enough already.
"Washington has gotten its act together" and they write this BS with a straight face. The next time Washington gets its act together will be the first time.
On the face of it, this sounds like something to applaud: The growing economy is bolstering tax revenue and reducing the need for spending on programs like unemployment insurance. Washington has gotten its act together. The budget is finally coming back into balance. Indeed, Goldman now expects the budget deficit to fall to just 2.7 percent of economic output by the 2015 fiscal year. Many economists consider budget deficits that small to be sustainable — particularly if the federal government is investing in public goods like schools and roads — with the accrued debt paid off by later years’ economic growth.
This next paragraph is their coup d' gras, the final haymaker to knockout sequestration.
But a number of budget experts are booing rather than applauding, including the fiscal hawks at the International Monetary Fund. Last week, the fund nudged down its estimates for United States growth in 2013 and 2014. It said it saw many bright spots in the American economy, including the strength of the private sector, but it criticized Washington for imposing too much austerity, too soon, and thus sapping strength from the recovery and preventing the unemployment rate from coming down faster.
There always has to be another reason for the failure of the unemployment rate to decline. It couldn't be lousy government policy in the first place owing to huge budget deficits, big debt and out-of-control slopping at the public trough.
You can't blame the author, though. She probably doesn't know yet: she's just another pawn. Toss her a by-line, a few chips, some guacamole and she's good to go.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/22/the-incredible-shrinking-budget-deficit/
After you read the posted story you should know why it ought to say: "All the news that's fit to spin."
Let's start at the top, the title: "The Incredible Shrinking Budget."
The only thing incredible about the incredible shrinking budget is whoever wrote this headline. If nothing else it shows you what contempt the NYT has for you.
The article claims the deficit is not only falling but falling rapidly. They then quote a report from Goldman Sachs aka in many eyes as Government Sachs. This is the same GS that shorted gold then put out a report to clients that gets spread to the public by MSM to short gold.
For anyone but GS that's called front running; it's illegal for you and me. It's also designed to pry the retail crowd loose from their metal ETFs and send a message about the economy.
Take a closer look at the paragraph below.
“Revenues have also exceeded expectations, with a 12 percent gain fiscal year to date. What is more notable is that the strength in revenues preceded the payroll tax hike at the start of the year, and the spending decline does not seem to reflect sequestration, which has just started to take effect.” To translate: the deficit could come in even smaller than currently anticipated because of spending cuts and higher tax rates.
To begin with, there's more qualifiers ("does not seem, "could come") in there than you'll see next month at the Indy 500.
The strength in revenues was no surprise. People cashed in some winnings to avoid higher taxes that they knew are coming. This was true at the state level also. Even tax-crazy California reported higher revenue.
This next paragraph would be even funnier if not for such blatant cheerleading. The growing economy, bolstering tax revenues, reducing the need for spending on unemployment insurance, the budget is finally coming into balance. Enough already.
"Washington has gotten its act together" and they write this BS with a straight face. The next time Washington gets its act together will be the first time.
On the face of it, this sounds like something to applaud: The growing economy is bolstering tax revenue and reducing the need for spending on programs like unemployment insurance. Washington has gotten its act together. The budget is finally coming back into balance. Indeed, Goldman now expects the budget deficit to fall to just 2.7 percent of economic output by the 2015 fiscal year. Many economists consider budget deficits that small to be sustainable — particularly if the federal government is investing in public goods like schools and roads — with the accrued debt paid off by later years’ economic growth.
This next paragraph is their coup d' gras, the final haymaker to knockout sequestration.
But a number of budget experts are booing rather than applauding, including the fiscal hawks at the International Monetary Fund. Last week, the fund nudged down its estimates for United States growth in 2013 and 2014. It said it saw many bright spots in the American economy, including the strength of the private sector, but it criticized Washington for imposing too much austerity, too soon, and thus sapping strength from the recovery and preventing the unemployment rate from coming down faster.
There always has to be another reason for the failure of the unemployment rate to decline. It couldn't be lousy government policy in the first place owing to huge budget deficits, big debt and out-of-control slopping at the public trough.
You can't blame the author, though. She probably doesn't know yet: she's just another pawn. Toss her a by-line, a few chips, some guacamole and she's good to go.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/22/the-incredible-shrinking-budget-deficit/
CORRELATION
You hear a lot of talk today about correlation.
Many believe things now are more correlated than ever. In other words, what happens in Asia doesn't just stay there. That's just one of the concerns with all the QE Japan's doing.
Think emerging markets and growth. More developed, industrialized nations want to capitalize on that growth. It's a two way street. Correlation doesn't just apply to markets, however. There's something called asset correlation.
And that brings us to commodities. Recently they've taken a hit while equities have climbed, not historically unusual between the two asset classes, notwithstanding the last few years when they've somewhat surprisingly shown more correlation.
In simple terms commodities and equities are usually believed to be negatively correlated. They don't both tend to rise or fall at the same time. With bonds and commodities even more so.
When people think about emerging markets hunger comes up. And that's correct. But it's not all nutritional hunger. The so-called experts estimate there are now seven billion people inhabiting the Good Ship Planet Earth with another two billion projected in the next 20 years.
More hunger, again not all the nutritional kind. In 1929 when the stock market crashed there were 120 million people in the US. Today in California alone there are 34 million and those are the ones we presumably know about.
So here are a few reasons you want to own some commodities.
1. Commodities are historically negatively correlated to equities and bonds while throwing off decent returns. It's called diversification.
2. Inflation protection. Commodity prices tend to rise with inflation.
3. Growth is usually correlated with industrialization. And that brings us full circle to emerging markets and how to play them.
Welcome what the market gives you. Just make sure you do your homework.
Many believe things now are more correlated than ever. In other words, what happens in Asia doesn't just stay there. That's just one of the concerns with all the QE Japan's doing.
Think emerging markets and growth. More developed, industrialized nations want to capitalize on that growth. It's a two way street. Correlation doesn't just apply to markets, however. There's something called asset correlation.
And that brings us to commodities. Recently they've taken a hit while equities have climbed, not historically unusual between the two asset classes, notwithstanding the last few years when they've somewhat surprisingly shown more correlation.
In simple terms commodities and equities are usually believed to be negatively correlated. They don't both tend to rise or fall at the same time. With bonds and commodities even more so.
When people think about emerging markets hunger comes up. And that's correct. But it's not all nutritional hunger. The so-called experts estimate there are now seven billion people inhabiting the Good Ship Planet Earth with another two billion projected in the next 20 years.
More hunger, again not all the nutritional kind. In 1929 when the stock market crashed there were 120 million people in the US. Today in California alone there are 34 million and those are the ones we presumably know about.
So here are a few reasons you want to own some commodities.
1. Commodities are historically negatively correlated to equities and bonds while throwing off decent returns. It's called diversification.
2. Inflation protection. Commodity prices tend to rise with inflation.
3. Growth is usually correlated with industrialization. And that brings us full circle to emerging markets and how to play them.
Welcome what the market gives you. Just make sure you do your homework.
BRIEFS
Recently we wrote about Goldman Sachs sacking gold. Here's quote from a statement released today from the bank advising their clients to cover their shorts in the precious metal.
"Our bias is to expect further declines in gold prices on the combination of continued ETF outflows as conviction in holding gold continues to wane as well as our economists' forecast for a reaccelerating in U.S. growth later this year," they said.
This is designed to shake more retail investors out of gold ETFs and help the Fed further pump up the equity bubble. Bottom line message: "See. We told you everything is fine."
--------
Beware of chains. President Obama's new budget plan wants to swap the current CPI used to gauge inflation to a chained CPI. What's the difference? The new CPI, owing to some nebulous economic mumbo-gumbo, factors in possible substitutions. Like if gasoline prices get too high we'll all start riding tricycles.
The key word here is possible as in substitutions one might make. Pork prices jump up while beef prices stay the same. Everyone is assumed to switch or substitute pork for beef, including those allergic to both. It's called egalitarianism. How would you like yours-- with or without mayo?
If hardly a new concept and it's designed to screw the COLA folks, all those yield-starved seniors Obama and his cronies claim they care so much about.
Tax brackets are indexed to the current CPI. With the new one they aren't. That means higher taxes for everyone, middle class included. Even the left of center Tax Policy Center calls it "a back door tax hike of $100 billion."
About the only thing going to get chained if this economic political voodoo flies is you and me.
------
Here a quote from Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco. talking about airport delays.
"Our bias is to expect further declines in gold prices on the combination of continued ETF outflows as conviction in holding gold continues to wane as well as our economists' forecast for a reaccelerating in U.S. growth later this year," they said.
This is designed to shake more retail investors out of gold ETFs and help the Fed further pump up the equity bubble. Bottom line message: "See. We told you everything is fine."
--------
Beware of chains. President Obama's new budget plan wants to swap the current CPI used to gauge inflation to a chained CPI. What's the difference? The new CPI, owing to some nebulous economic mumbo-gumbo, factors in possible substitutions. Like if gasoline prices get too high we'll all start riding tricycles.
The key word here is possible as in substitutions one might make. Pork prices jump up while beef prices stay the same. Everyone is assumed to switch or substitute pork for beef, including those allergic to both. It's called egalitarianism. How would you like yours-- with or without mayo?
If hardly a new concept and it's designed to screw the COLA folks, all those yield-starved seniors Obama and his cronies claim they care so much about.
Tax brackets are indexed to the current CPI. With the new one they aren't. That means higher taxes for everyone, middle class included. Even the left of center Tax Policy Center calls it "a back door tax hike of $100 billion."
About the only thing going to get chained if this economic political voodoo flies is you and me.
------
Here a quote from Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco. talking about airport delays.
“Any avoidable headwind to growth – and this one is self-manufactured by Congress – is a travesty for an economy that is already struggling to grow by 2% a year, has an unemployment rate of 7.6% (with some 40% composed of long-term joblessness), has seen its labor participation rate fall to a level last seen in 1979, and still needs to de-leverage safely over time.”
WEDNESDAY READS
More Headwinds
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/23/pimcos-el-erian-sequester-flight-cancellations-signal-more-headwinds-for-economy/
Accountability
http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/23/success-laziness-accountability/
Political Chicanery Trumps People Again
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324874204578438913145965432.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
Defense Japanese Style
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/04/great-graphic-japanese-uridashi-issuance.html#more
Bargain Hunter
http://www.inc.com/julie-strickland/price-psychology-.html?cid=em01015week17e
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/23/pimcos-el-erian-sequester-flight-cancellations-signal-more-headwinds-for-economy/
Accountability
http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/23/success-laziness-accountability/
Political Chicanery Trumps People Again
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324874204578438913145965432.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
Defense Japanese Style
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/04/great-graphic-japanese-uridashi-issuance.html#more
Bargain Hunter
http://www.inc.com/julie-strickland/price-psychology-.html?cid=em01015week17e
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
SPEAK UP
Contriving, backstabbing, evil people.
No, we're not talking this time about one of our old girlfriends though the description is close.
We're talking about the Obama administration and the air traffic controller mess. Now before many of you get too froggy and want to start jumping, the Republicans would be doing the same thing given the chance.
And that's the point: the triumph of politics over people. These contriving, backstabbing, evil folks care less about you and yours and any inconveniences you suffer. When are you going to get your head around that fact?
These people are among the most selfish, egotistical, power-hungry lot around and it's our fault. We put up with it. You and your children and your ideals are just political pawns.
We'd say that they're infantile, but that would be an insult to children everywhere.
What you can do about it is get angry, real angry. Show them what real bipartisan anger looks like. The people stranded at these airports cross all political, racial and religious lines. They're young and old and infirm. En mass they're apolitical.
It's an in-your-face insult. You can sit there and take it, shrug it off or do something.
No, we're not talking this time about one of our old girlfriends though the description is close.
We're talking about the Obama administration and the air traffic controller mess. Now before many of you get too froggy and want to start jumping, the Republicans would be doing the same thing given the chance.
And that's the point: the triumph of politics over people. These contriving, backstabbing, evil folks care less about you and yours and any inconveniences you suffer. When are you going to get your head around that fact?
These people are among the most selfish, egotistical, power-hungry lot around and it's our fault. We put up with it. You and your children and your ideals are just political pawns.
We'd say that they're infantile, but that would be an insult to children everywhere.
What you can do about it is get angry, real angry. Show them what real bipartisan anger looks like. The people stranded at these airports cross all political, racial and religious lines. They're young and old and infirm. En mass they're apolitical.
It's an in-your-face insult. You can sit there and take it, shrug it off or do something.
TUESDAY READS
Bears Versus Bulls Sentiment Indicator
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/Why-Barron2527s-Prediction-of-Dow-16/4/22/2013/id/49365
The Secret World Of Gold http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=8318
Oil Down
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-slips-on-china-data-ahead-of-supply-figures-2013-04-23?link=MW_home_latest_news
EU Transaction Tax
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/21/eu-nations-split-over-transaction-tax-after-uk-fil
Austerity Support Waning EU Bureaucrat Says
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324874204578438250267965718.html?mod=ITP_pageone_3
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/Why-Barron2527s-Prediction-of-Dow-16/4/22/2013/id/49365
The Secret World Of Gold http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=8318
Oil Down
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-slips-on-china-data-ahead-of-supply-figures-2013-04-23?link=MW_home_latest_news
EU Transaction Tax
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/21/eu-nations-split-over-transaction-tax-after-uk-fil
Austerity Support Waning EU Bureaucrat Says
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324874204578438250267965718.html?mod=ITP_pageone_3
SHOW ME YOUR CONVICTION
Let's put a few things in perspective.
As the graph below from the WSJ shows investors are in the market. But it's heavily skewed toward defensives issues.
If that makes you feel comfortable, it reminds us of the old big toe dip in the bath water, not a plunge based on confidence.
Caterpillar, the huge machinery firm, came out with weak earnings. The stock closed at $82 and change a little over four bucks from its 52 week low and roughly $30 off its 52 week high.
The company manufactures construction and mining equipment. The mining sector has been hard hit not the least of which is owing to the drop in metal prices, commodities and the Chinese slowdown.
Energy prices are weak. Housing's being propped up by the Fed and the MSM cheerleaders. People want to believe. Show me your conviction. They're paying up for that defense.
A while back we mentioned the smell test. We also mentioned taking what the market gives. Well, this graph is telling you what most investors don't like.
If this is another off-to-the-races bull market based on a solid recovery, how far can it get without energy, materials and the like?
And when do you want to buy them?
Monday, April 22, 2013
GOLD AND THE MEDIA
It should strike you as interesting especially since the sell off in gold how many commentators stick an epithet on the end of gold to describe gold followers.
This is not new.
Now we're not among the so-called goldbugs though we have followed the yellow stuff since even before it fell from its $800 pedestal in the early 1980s.
In fact, back when the stuff traded at $278 an ounce we used to fly to another state where there was no sales tax and a much lower premium to buy it for our clients. The point here is, we don't call the paper asset folks, equity bugs or bond roaches or derivative dermatophytes. Or how about subprime pimps?
You know the term goldbugs carries a derisive tone to it. It's one of those PC we're-better-than-you-and-we're-superior attitudes you see so often in today's media. A recent example is this article, "The Evil Fed and Gold Prices: Fear-Mongering Fail" by someone named Dee Gill from the website YCharts.
It's one more example of journalists and their haughty snobbishness. It's also an example of why more and more people today disdain MSM in particular and journalists in general. It's another gauntlet tossed down.
You don't have to be a so-called gold bug to question the reckless and feckless Federal Reserve policy of Big Ben. We've seen it before under Sir Alan. And chances are better than good we'll see it again.
We also know interest rates have been in a long term decline and that politicians and bureaucrats have screwed up mightily before. With rates as low as they are, inflation doesn't have to jump by much to cause major dislocations.
Too many apparently myopic members of the media seem to think it has to return to those early 1980's levels to hurt. It doesn't.
The other side of the coin is the phony government inflation numbers the media and its lackeys continually parrot. It's still early in the game, not so much for the price of gold but for the after effects of all the monetary easing madness.
Shakespeare in his great wisdom suggested decimating the legal profession first. If he were around today he might be inclined to rethink that order.
MONDAY READS
Who's Afraid Of Gold
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100658922
Paulson On Gold
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2013/04/john-paulson-on-why-gold-will-climb.html
Copper Starting To Smell
http://investorplace.com/2013/04/dr-copper-catches-the-flu/
Housing Bubbles
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/21/business/before-housing-bubbles-there-was-land-fever.html?pagewanted=2&pagewanted=print
Caffeine-spiked Foods Of Your Choice
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323809304578428662107511422.html?mod=WSJ_LifeStyle_Food
You Read You Decide
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-21/dealers-say-no-end-to-qe-in-2013-as-hatzius-sees-2016-rate-rise.html
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100658922
Paulson On Gold
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2013/04/john-paulson-on-why-gold-will-climb.html
Copper Starting To Smell
http://investorplace.com/2013/04/dr-copper-catches-the-flu/
Housing Bubbles
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/21/business/before-housing-bubbles-there-was-land-fever.html?pagewanted=2&pagewanted=print
Caffeine-spiked Foods Of Your Choice
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323809304578428662107511422.html?mod=WSJ_LifeStyle_Food
You Read You Decide
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-21/dealers-say-no-end-to-qe-in-2013-as-hatzius-sees-2016-rate-rise.html
GRIDLOCK ITALIAN STYLE
Suppose one day you're at this important meeting. You shuffle casually through the meeting brochure awaiting the main speaker.
And there it is, right on the second page in the bold print of his bio: the main speaker reveals he's had 33 jobs in 38 years. Lots of diversity, not much else. And it's no spreadsheet error. Spreadsheets have been properly vetted and banned from the meeting.
How much confidence does that instill in you? The title of his talk isn't about changing jobs rapidly. It's about managing companies. A gross exaggeration you claim. Maybe. But whether you realize it, you've just been introduced to the Italian government.
Only for the record it's worse, much worse. It's 63 governments in the last 68 years. One guy, Silvio Berlusconi, the one-time friend of George W. Bush, managed to interrupt that merry go round.
Berlusconi is the only one to serve out his full five year term. The irony of his downfall centered on a, surprise, sex scandal. Europeans always criticize the US for it prudishness. But the truth is sex scandals have sabotaged more political careers there than you can wiggle a G-string at.
Italy represents the third largest economy of the of EU, no small change matter. They just elected 87 year old Giorgio Napolitano to a second term in a compromise vote to try to remove what's been an ugly standoff from the front burner when the February election deadlocked.
For the past two years Italy's endured an economic crisis that recently suffered another blow when it's bonds were downgraded to BBB+ and a scandal over derivatives at Monte dei Pachi, the world's oldest and Italy's third largest bank, in February complicate what many now believe adds to the Eurozone's many already significant fiscal problems.
Gridlock American style can't hold a G-string to Italy's. So does that give us a sigh of relief and yet another good reason to justify more QE? Can someone please run that by Paul Krugman?
Sunday, April 21, 2013
SUNDAY READS
Politics The Global Wayhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/19/french-inquiry-gaddafi-sarkozy-2007-campaign
The Volk Man http://www.bostonreview.net/BR38.2/jonathan_david_kirshner_paul_volcker_rule_finance_william_silber.php
New Same
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/20/us-italy-vote-napolitano-idUSBRE93J09020130420
Cost To Boston Of Man Hunt
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/19/estimating-the-economic-cost-of-the-boston-manhunt/
From Goldman Sachs To Canada To UK
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/18/bank-england-carney-uk-crisis-country
The Volk Man http://www.bostonreview.net/BR38.2/jonathan_david_kirshner_paul_volcker_rule_finance_william_silber.php
New Same
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/20/us-italy-vote-napolitano-idUSBRE93J09020130420
Cost To Boston Of Man Hunt
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/19/estimating-the-economic-cost-of-the-boston-manhunt/
From Goldman Sachs To Canada To UK
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/18/bank-england-carney-uk-crisis-country
Saturday, April 20, 2013
BRIEFS
A recent furore erupted over a spreadsheet error involving the work of two Harvard economists whose findings stated that the debt ratio to GDP matters.
Debt, they concluded, was a drag on future growth.
The findings were a tough swallow for liberal Keynesian economists and a windfall so to speak for those who want more stringent fiscal policies.
So what do you think happened? Three liberal, Keynesian-bred economists from the University of Massachusetts reviewed the data and found a spreadsheet error.
How many spreadsheet generated documents have errors? Well, here's a link.
What is egregious is the three used the error to attack other findings of the report that were in no way related to the error. The lead UMASS economist has close ties to the Obama administration which openly opposes any real fiscal austerity. The other two are wanna-bes.
A policy wonk, right or left, is just another wonk. They're not your friend.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/88-of-spreadsheets-have-errors-2013-04-17
****
What's the drug of your choice?
For most of us it's O2, oxygen. On Wall Street so claims British neuropyscopharmacologist David Nutt it's cocaine. And he says it contributed the the financial crisis, according to a CNBC report.
Before you bust up laughing and call the guy a weirdo ( and you thought we we're going to say nut), read the piece.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100650821
From what we read a glut of hogs may hit the market this year as feed prices fall. (See Thursday reads). Recall last year's US drought.
The quote below, given all the deflation worries making the rounds now, we'll see how prices turn out and who is more correct.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc., the operator of 622 restaurants across 42 states, expects food commodity costs to rise 4% to 5% this fiscal year, with pork among the biggest increases, Chief Financial Officer Lawrence E. Hyatt said on a conference call in February.
*
Debt, they concluded, was a drag on future growth.
The findings were a tough swallow for liberal Keynesian economists and a windfall so to speak for those who want more stringent fiscal policies.
So what do you think happened? Three liberal, Keynesian-bred economists from the University of Massachusetts reviewed the data and found a spreadsheet error.
How many spreadsheet generated documents have errors? Well, here's a link.
What is egregious is the three used the error to attack other findings of the report that were in no way related to the error. The lead UMASS economist has close ties to the Obama administration which openly opposes any real fiscal austerity. The other two are wanna-bes.
A policy wonk, right or left, is just another wonk. They're not your friend.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/88-of-spreadsheets-have-errors-2013-04-17
****
What's the drug of your choice?
For most of us it's O2, oxygen. On Wall Street so claims British neuropyscopharmacologist David Nutt it's cocaine. And he says it contributed the the financial crisis, according to a CNBC report.
Before you bust up laughing and call the guy a weirdo ( and you thought we we're going to say nut), read the piece.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100650821
From what we read a glut of hogs may hit the market this year as feed prices fall. (See Thursday reads). Recall last year's US drought.
The quote below, given all the deflation worries making the rounds now, we'll see how prices turn out and who is more correct.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc., the operator of 622 restaurants across 42 states, expects food commodity costs to rise 4% to 5% this fiscal year, with pork among the biggest increases, Chief Financial Officer Lawrence E. Hyatt said on a conference call in February.
*
AGING LEMONS AND DISTORTED EARNINGS
Everyone is biased except you and me. And I have my doubts about you.
Wall Street is one of the places on the planet more biased than a sports fan. You need to keep that in mind. Keep your eye on earnings. Do they beat or underperform expectations.
Back in the tech craziness days before the bottom fell out of what was then called TMT, technology, media, telecommunication, a noted tech darling beat earnings by one penny for something like 14 quarters in a row and Wall Street loved it, pushing the stock higher and higher.
Few among the masses apparently thought to ask what are the odds of a company with a huge market cap beating quarterly earnings by exactly one penny for 14 straight quarters. A lot like booze, good times and bull markets distort judgment.
Back then they were laying fibre everywhere. Companies like Montana Power, a stodgy utility provider to Global Crossing, one of the era's high fliers, got caught up in the fibre craze. Both are no more. Back then TMT was hotter than my old girlfriend.
Hot stocks are like hot water bottles. After a while they eventually lose their heat. Think Apple.
According to an article in the recent issue in Barron's, 67% of companies beat the lowest estimate on their earnings, a figure above the usual 63% average. Revenue, however, is another story. Only 43% beat their revenue benchmark well down from the 62% average.
So what's the take home lesson? Cost-cutting. That''s what firms do in slow times. And that leads to the next question: How much more excess can they squeeze from that aging lemon?
Friday, April 19, 2013
TAKE WHAT THEY GIVE
There's an old saw take what they give you.
Right now the market is focused on the possibility of another slowdown or even slipping back into a recession. It's a global concern.
Commodities in general and metals and mining in particular, that's what the market disdains now. And hydrocarbons. Could there be a trap here? Of course. Life's full of traps.
But even hydrocarbon haters like Jeremy Grantham, a UK transplant who's investment strategist at Grantham, Mayo and van Otto (CMO ), a Boston asset management firm, admits in a recent interview are holding onto their hydrocarbons.
Grantham's a big climate change believer, a guy who like a lot zealous converts thinks his facts are the only real facts. That he admits to holding onto his hydrocarbons is more about hedging than honesty or conviction.
Ask yourself these questions. What is all the easy-money policy about and what do all these central bankers want? A recovery. Without energy recoveries are DOA.
If you think no recovery will ever occur, you might want to sell or short hydrocarbons. Or if you think another recovery is just a matter of when, you might start entertaining the prospect of taking what they give you.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2013/apr/16/jeremy-grantham-food-oil-capitalism
Right now the market is focused on the possibility of another slowdown or even slipping back into a recession. It's a global concern.
Commodities in general and metals and mining in particular, that's what the market disdains now. And hydrocarbons. Could there be a trap here? Of course. Life's full of traps.
But even hydrocarbon haters like Jeremy Grantham, a UK transplant who's investment strategist at Grantham, Mayo and van Otto (CMO ), a Boston asset management firm, admits in a recent interview are holding onto their hydrocarbons.
Grantham's a big climate change believer, a guy who like a lot zealous converts thinks his facts are the only real facts. That he admits to holding onto his hydrocarbons is more about hedging than honesty or conviction.
Ask yourself these questions. What is all the easy-money policy about and what do all these central bankers want? A recovery. Without energy recoveries are DOA.
If you think no recovery will ever occur, you might want to sell or short hydrocarbons. Or if you think another recovery is just a matter of when, you might start entertaining the prospect of taking what they give you.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2013/apr/16/jeremy-grantham-food-oil-capitalism
THE OTHER FRIDAY READ
GOLDMAN SACHS RECEIVES FOMC MINUTES EARLY
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/don-t-trust-market-not-alone-good-reason-151040450.html
YOUR ZIP CODE OR PRIVACY
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/18/pf/data-privacy/index.html
ONLINE HEATS UP
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-socialmedia-behaviour-survey-idUSBRE9390TO20130410
LOOKS AS IF OFFLINE IS HEATING UP TOO
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/4/14/europes-stark-choice-resignation-or-revolution.html
MORPHING KNOWS NO BOUNDARIES
http://www.burtprelutsky.com/
MORPH IS TO GOAL AS
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/guest-post-goal-destroy-all-constitutional-culture
FOR AWHILE
A friend who really liked the ladies told us years ago, it's not what comes before, but after the but that counts, as in: "You're a really nice guy, but......."
It turns out over the years that's been a pretty decent philosophy when it comes to making money in the market.
Run a little test the next few weeks and count how many negative headlines you see about metals and mining stocks. Now this isn't a spinoff of the noted magazine cover indicator. It's a necessary precursor.
Pundits love to be right. And so does nearly everyone else. People also like confirmation. And that's fine. It's a plausible, understandable character flaw.
Confirmation and loneliness are polar opposites. Depending on your viewpoint both can make you feel good. We usually feel best when we're the loneliest. And we have a feeling we're going to be feeling that way about certain segments of the market for a while.
If we're really, really lucky for a while will translate into just enough time to build a nice position before the unexpected happens.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/don-t-trust-market-not-alone-good-reason-151040450.html
YOUR ZIP CODE OR PRIVACY
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/18/pf/data-privacy/index.html
ONLINE HEATS UP
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-socialmedia-behaviour-survey-idUSBRE9390TO20130410
LOOKS AS IF OFFLINE IS HEATING UP TOO
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/4/14/europes-stark-choice-resignation-or-revolution.html
MORPHING KNOWS NO BOUNDARIES
http://www.burtprelutsky.com/
MORPH IS TO GOAL AS
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/guest-post-goal-destroy-all-constitutional-culture
FOR AWHILE
A friend who really liked the ladies told us years ago, it's not what comes before, but after the but that counts, as in: "You're a really nice guy, but......."
It turns out over the years that's been a pretty decent philosophy when it comes to making money in the market.
Run a little test the next few weeks and count how many negative headlines you see about metals and mining stocks. Now this isn't a spinoff of the noted magazine cover indicator. It's a necessary precursor.
Pundits love to be right. And so does nearly everyone else. People also like confirmation. And that's fine. It's a plausible, understandable character flaw.
Confirmation and loneliness are polar opposites. Depending on your viewpoint both can make you feel good. We usually feel best when we're the loneliest. And we have a feeling we're going to be feeling that way about certain segments of the market for a while.
If we're really, really lucky for a while will translate into just enough time to build a nice position before the unexpected happens.
FRIDAY GOLD READ
SURE THEY DID
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/18/how-goldman-saw-the-gold-crash-coming-that-others-missed/
FORBES PIPES IN
http://www.moneynews.com/newswidget/Forbes-gold-Fed-economy/2013/04/17/id/499985?promo_code=F492-1&utm_source=Test_Newsmax_Feed&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1
BUFFETT PIPES IN
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/buffett-mocking-gold-sidesteps-slump-as-he-bets-on-stocks.html
GOLD IS BUSTED
http://chartsetcetera.blogspot.com/2013/04/gold-is-broken.html
COIN SALES SOAR AS PRICES FALL
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324493704578428332095974800.html?mod=WSJ_WorldMarkets_LeadStory
MINERS HAVE BIGGER ISSUES
http://investorplace.com/2013/04/miners-have-bigger-issues-than-gold-prices/
MINERS MISS OUT
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324763404578428803208832248.html?KEYWORDS=HEARD+ON+THE+STREET
WHERE ARE WE NOW
http://markdow.tumblr.com/post/48094365440/gold-and-silver-where-do-we-go-from-here
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/18/how-goldman-saw-the-gold-crash-coming-that-others-missed/
FORBES PIPES IN
http://www.moneynews.com/newswidget/Forbes-gold-Fed-economy/2013/04/17/id/499985?promo_code=F492-1&utm_source=Test_Newsmax_Feed&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1
BUFFETT PIPES IN
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/buffett-mocking-gold-sidesteps-slump-as-he-bets-on-stocks.html
GOLD IS BUSTED
http://chartsetcetera.blogspot.com/2013/04/gold-is-broken.html
COIN SALES SOAR AS PRICES FALL
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324493704578428332095974800.html?mod=WSJ_WorldMarkets_LeadStory
MINERS HAVE BIGGER ISSUES
http://investorplace.com/2013/04/miners-have-bigger-issues-than-gold-prices/
MINERS MISS OUT
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324763404578428803208832248.html?KEYWORDS=HEARD+ON+THE+STREET
WHERE ARE WE NOW
http://markdow.tumblr.com/post/48094365440/gold-and-silver-where-do-we-go-from-here
EMBARGOED
Goldman Sachs was one of several that received copy of FOMC minutes 19 hours before anyone else.
Some quotes here about embargoes.
http://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/
Some quotes here about embargoes.
http://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/
Thursday, April 18, 2013
BEN FRANKLIN AND THE IMF
Here's a headline from a story in yesterday's WSJ: "IMF Renews Push Against Austerity."
The first paragraph, as it should, pretty much says it all.
"Seeking to keep a fragile global recovery on track, the IMF called on countries that can afford it--including the U.S. and Great Britain--to slow the pace of their austerity measures."
Forget horses. Most of these so-called leaders around the globe would give up their fiefdoms for some growth. Well, maybe that's a bit too strong. These folks never give up anything, especially anything so lucrative and cushy.
But it's safe to say they're feeling some pressure, something the IMF is doing all in it bureaucratic power to ablate.
In its semi-annual report on growth, the fund warned that across the board cuts, referring to sequester, would be a mistake leading to slower growth. They labeled it the "wrong way" to shrink the budget deficit.
Then they rolled out a few their favorite code terms. One of them is targeted reductions. Most likely in their vernacular cuts is too harsh, too graphic, too exact. These folks thrive on wiggle room.
It's their bureaucratic hyperbaric chamber. Like Count Dracula that's where they spend most of their time. Cuts the fund noted should take place further down the road. They failed to name the road. But a decent guess might be: Never Lane or Circle Drive.
Keep in mind the IMF is home to more bureaucrats than a national political party convention. Fiscal cuts equals fewer bureaucrat jobs and fewer lush benefits. Slowing or halting across the board cuts is bureaucratic code speak for not right now.
A large fortune awaits some creative entrepreneurial soul who comes out with the first video game called: "Advance the Can." Every bureaucrat on the planet will want one.
If only Ben Franklin were still among us. Ole Ben was known for many things, including his aphorisms. Here's one obviously most bureaucrats never heard: "A stitch in time saves nine."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323346304578426502903053768.html
The first paragraph, as it should, pretty much says it all.
"Seeking to keep a fragile global recovery on track, the IMF called on countries that can afford it--including the U.S. and Great Britain--to slow the pace of their austerity measures."
Forget horses. Most of these so-called leaders around the globe would give up their fiefdoms for some growth. Well, maybe that's a bit too strong. These folks never give up anything, especially anything so lucrative and cushy.
But it's safe to say they're feeling some pressure, something the IMF is doing all in it bureaucratic power to ablate.
In its semi-annual report on growth, the fund warned that across the board cuts, referring to sequester, would be a mistake leading to slower growth. They labeled it the "wrong way" to shrink the budget deficit.
Then they rolled out a few their favorite code terms. One of them is targeted reductions. Most likely in their vernacular cuts is too harsh, too graphic, too exact. These folks thrive on wiggle room.
It's their bureaucratic hyperbaric chamber. Like Count Dracula that's where they spend most of their time. Cuts the fund noted should take place further down the road. They failed to name the road. But a decent guess might be: Never Lane or Circle Drive.
Keep in mind the IMF is home to more bureaucrats than a national political party convention. Fiscal cuts equals fewer bureaucrat jobs and fewer lush benefits. Slowing or halting across the board cuts is bureaucratic code speak for not right now.
A large fortune awaits some creative entrepreneurial soul who comes out with the first video game called: "Advance the Can." Every bureaucrat on the planet will want one.
If only Ben Franklin were still among us. Ole Ben was known for many things, including his aphorisms. Here's one obviously most bureaucrats never heard: "A stitch in time saves nine."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323346304578426502903053768.html
THURSDAY READS
The Gloom About Gold Piles Up
http://investorplace.com/2013/04/miners-have-bigger-issues-than-gold-prices/
Change In Route
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Keystone-XL-Route-Change-Puts-Environmentalists-on-the-Back-Foot.html
Hog Glut http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/17/hog-glut-gains-as-us-exports-drop-most-in-decade?ref=hp&t=commodities
A Bite From Apple
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Apple2527s-Problem-With-iPhone-Numbers-tech/4/17/2013/id/49303
Alaska Says It's Back http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/business/energy-environment/alaska-grants-a-tax-break-to-oil-companies.html?_r=0
Muni Downgrade Possible
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-may-downgrade-125-billion-in-muni-debt-2013-04-17
Scientists Reverse Memory Loss In Brain Cells
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/04/130417164451.htm
http://investorplace.com/2013/04/miners-have-bigger-issues-than-gold-prices/
Change In Route
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Keystone-XL-Route-Change-Puts-Environmentalists-on-the-Back-Foot.html
Hog Glut http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/17/hog-glut-gains-as-us-exports-drop-most-in-decade?ref=hp&t=commodities
A Bite From Apple
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Apple2527s-Problem-With-iPhone-Numbers-tech/4/17/2013/id/49303
Alaska Says It's Back http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/business/energy-environment/alaska-grants-a-tax-break-to-oil-companies.html?_r=0
Muni Downgrade Possible
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-may-downgrade-125-billion-in-muni-debt-2013-04-17
Scientists Reverse Memory Loss In Brain Cells
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/04/130417164451.htm
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
IT AIN'T MONETARY POLICY
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann in an interview today with the WSJ floated the notion EU recovery could take 10 years.
It obviously wasn't something Europe's politically elite wanted to hear. It also sent a shot across the bow of those leaders who have recently suggested the EU's problems were mostly rear-view mirror.
Hardly a single interplanetary soul isn't aware such could mean: hello Japan, not a pleasant table setting to enjoy a good meal.
Weidmann further suggested leaders needed to step up by overhauling some things, an oblique reference many believe to the fiscal train wreck that the EU is, and make funds available to small businesses.
Weidmann concluded that he didn't think monetary policy "is the key."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324493704578428552244471438.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
It obviously wasn't something Europe's politically elite wanted to hear. It also sent a shot across the bow of those leaders who have recently suggested the EU's problems were mostly rear-view mirror.
Hardly a single interplanetary soul isn't aware such could mean: hello Japan, not a pleasant table setting to enjoy a good meal.
Weidmann further suggested leaders needed to step up by overhauling some things, an oblique reference many believe to the fiscal train wreck that the EU is, and make funds available to small businesses.
Weidmann concluded that he didn't think monetary policy "is the key."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324493704578428552244471438.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
WEDNESDAY READS
BUNDESBANK PRESIDENT INTERVIEW TODAY
http://blogs.wsj.com/eurocrisis/2013/04/17/jens-weidmann-qa/?KEYWORDS=Bundesbank+president
CONSIDER THE SOURCE
http://www.money.cnn.com/2013/04/17/news/economy/china-green-energy/index.html?iid=SF_BN_LN
CYPRUS SAGA CONTINUES
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/17/cyprus-bailout-vote-idUSL5N0D42R020130417
EARNINGS WATCH
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/u-s-stock-index-futures-drop-yahoo-sinks-on-forecast.html
LEFT VERSUS RIGHT FILM
http://www.newsmax.com/US/hating-breitbart-film-release/2013/04/17/id/499953
LEFF HAND RIGHT SYNDROME
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/04/great-graphic-another-look-at-emu.html
MORE FED TALK
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-plosser-wants-to-start-towards-qe-exit-2013-04-16?dist=lbeforebell
PINCHING THE POKE AT PROCTER
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324010704578418361635041842.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
GOLD AS A HEDGE
Too many believe that gold is a hedge against inflation.
And it is but only indirectly. Gold is a hedge against central bank and government incompetence.
"I'm from the government and I'm here to help you." Besides "I promise to faithfully...," there's probably few more dangerous words around.
Notice in the last few days how often the 1300 level's been mentioned in MSM. The parrots are in good cackling order. Forget crackers. What these folks really want is restitution.
In this case restitution of their alleged reputation as financial seers. Something with gold hanging on above 1600 was, like the words of an old Simon and Garfunkle tune, slip, sliding away.
If you understand the definiton of concerted, you're starting to get it. This is little more than a not-so-subtle concerted effort to pour more oil on the printing presses--the usual bureuacrat soultion to WTF's happening here?
Gun control is a hot button issue these days. But what about Ph.d-control? The damage these folks can wreak, to use a good economic term, is incalculable. Maybe we should label it, aggregate damage, so nobody would understand.
The one thing you need to understand--and soon if you don't already--is nobody's safe.
And now you know what gold is. So keep your construction-site hard helmet close at hand.
11
And it is but only indirectly. Gold is a hedge against central bank and government incompetence.
"I'm from the government and I'm here to help you." Besides "I promise to faithfully...," there's probably few more dangerous words around.
Notice in the last few days how often the 1300 level's been mentioned in MSM. The parrots are in good cackling order. Forget crackers. What these folks really want is restitution.
In this case restitution of their alleged reputation as financial seers. Something with gold hanging on above 1600 was, like the words of an old Simon and Garfunkle tune, slip, sliding away.
If you understand the definiton of concerted, you're starting to get it. This is little more than a not-so-subtle concerted effort to pour more oil on the printing presses--the usual bureuacrat soultion to WTF's happening here?
Gun control is a hot button issue these days. But what about Ph.d-control? The damage these folks can wreak, to use a good economic term, is incalculable. Maybe we should label it, aggregate damage, so nobody would understand.
The one thing you need to understand--and soon if you don't already--is nobody's safe.
And now you know what gold is. So keep your construction-site hard helmet close at hand.
11
THEY NEED YOUR TEARS
"As a result, people are getting increasingly creative at skirting controls."
The above quote could be a segue into a discussion about tax evasion or tax avoidance, only one of which many seemingly forget is illegal--evasion.
It's a story from today's WSJ about what happens when bureaucrats debase a currency and the people lose faith in their government. It's a story for those who believe it can never or won't ever happen here. See Boston marathon.
It's a story for the most part being crowded out by other, seemingly more pressing events. It's a story about Argentina, a nation more than a little familiar with inflation, currency messes and incompetent governments. See history.
It's also a story about government statistical legerdemain every government in existence has and will continue to practice until people stand up to them. See inflation rate.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324010704578418662965631052.html?KEYWORDS=ARGENTINA
The above quote could be a segue into a discussion about tax evasion or tax avoidance, only one of which many seemingly forget is illegal--evasion.
It's a story from today's WSJ about what happens when bureaucrats debase a currency and the people lose faith in their government. It's a story for those who believe it can never or won't ever happen here. See Boston marathon.
It's a story for the most part being crowded out by other, seemingly more pressing events. It's a story about Argentina, a nation more than a little familiar with inflation, currency messes and incompetent governments. See history.
It's also a story about government statistical legerdemain every government in existence has and will continue to practice until people stand up to them. See inflation rate.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324010704578418662965631052.html?KEYWORDS=ARGENTINA
TUESDAY READS
NO SURPRISE
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/16/autos/aaa-driving-costs/index.html
WHAT'S NEW
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324345804578424480045988240.html?mod=ITP_pageone_1
GOLDMAN SACHS REPORTS
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/04/16/goldmans-investments-in-companies-pay-off/
THE EU PICTURE
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/16/eurozone-crisis-growth-markets-oil-price
SACRED NO MORE
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/4/15/public-pension-plans-to-share-the-pain.html
MARKETS DOWN http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/15/investing/world-markets/index.html?iid=s_mpm
UP OVERNIGHT
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-push-higher-as-gold-gains-2013-04-16?dist=lbeforebell
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/16/autos/aaa-driving-costs/index.html
WHAT'S NEW
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324345804578424480045988240.html?mod=ITP_pageone_1
GOLDMAN SACHS REPORTS
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/04/16/goldmans-investments-in-companies-pay-off/
THE EU PICTURE
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/16/eurozone-crisis-growth-markets-oil-price
SACRED NO MORE
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/4/15/public-pension-plans-to-share-the-pain.html
MARKETS DOWN http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/15/investing/world-markets/index.html?iid=s_mpm
UP OVERNIGHT
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-push-higher-as-gold-gains-2013-04-16?dist=lbeforebell
Monday, April 15, 2013
GOLDMAN SACHS SACKS GOLD
Gold prices drop dramatically, down more than $100 to a two-year low.
TIPS sell off. Big restaurant chain McDonalds announces concern about future earnings, slowing consumer spending world-wide and the housing scene looks funkier than many of the bull market cheerleaders expected.
Forget a rainy night in Georgia. If this keeps up many investors will soon feel like it's raining all over the world. And it well may soon be if earnings disappoint.
Then there's the EU, China and Japan. It's a mixed-up world. US bureaucrats first want Japanese bureaucrats to inflate then warn not to over do it. And whatever happened to tiny Cyprus?
One Wall Street wag at Business Insider celebrated gold's fall from precious metal grace, claiming it and the equity rally are a sign Bernanke and his band of bureaucrats actually have an idea of what their doing. He's probably a closet Cubs fan.
Just today one member of the FOMC announced he felt good about the prospect of easing up on the bond-buying pedal by the end of the year. Let's hear it for more lumber trucks chugging around the old neighborhood.
A longtime neighbor just last week told me lately he's seeing more chipmunks scurrying around his and a neighbor's backyard. As far as I know he doesn't drink or smoke.
The truth is Helicopter Ben and his motley crew are as clueless as those up on the Hill. Getting it right doesn't ramp up deflation concerns and send the stock market down 266 points, it's worst day in five months. Look for the next set of those recently released job numbers to be revised upwards big time.
Central banks have been selling and hedge funds net long the yellow stuff. There's an old saw in medicine: treat the patient, not a lab number. Bernanke and his crowd want the jobless rate well below 7%, a no-can-do certainty with gold above $1,600.
Too much talk in the media about easy money ramping up inflation. It was beginning to gain traction.
Then there's that tiny island of Cyprus. Caught in a bureaucratic squeeze, central bankers there suddenly threaten to unload what is most likely it's officially bloated gold holdings. More gold than that of either Spain or France. Meanwhile, no one really knows how much gold is held by whom.
Enter Goldman Sachs, the huge investment banking firm with more ties to central banks and central bankers than the annual economic confab at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Check out the names Dudley, Draghi and Carney. If you need some help click on the link below.
On April 10th Goldman recommended dumping commodities, singling out the recent weakness in gold. The release came just a few days after hedge funds and investors purchased one of the dips.
If you're sniffing manipulation, you're getting warm. Goldman Sachs has another name in many circles, Government Sachs.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30/goldman-sachs-connections-with-central-banks-reach-ever-deeper-after-hire.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30/goldman-sachs-connections-with-central-banks-reach-ever-deeper-after-hire.html
TIPS sell off. Big restaurant chain McDonalds announces concern about future earnings, slowing consumer spending world-wide and the housing scene looks funkier than many of the bull market cheerleaders expected.
Forget a rainy night in Georgia. If this keeps up many investors will soon feel like it's raining all over the world. And it well may soon be if earnings disappoint.
Then there's the EU, China and Japan. It's a mixed-up world. US bureaucrats first want Japanese bureaucrats to inflate then warn not to over do it. And whatever happened to tiny Cyprus?
One Wall Street wag at Business Insider celebrated gold's fall from precious metal grace, claiming it and the equity rally are a sign Bernanke and his band of bureaucrats actually have an idea of what their doing. He's probably a closet Cubs fan.
Just today one member of the FOMC announced he felt good about the prospect of easing up on the bond-buying pedal by the end of the year. Let's hear it for more lumber trucks chugging around the old neighborhood.
A longtime neighbor just last week told me lately he's seeing more chipmunks scurrying around his and a neighbor's backyard. As far as I know he doesn't drink or smoke.
The truth is Helicopter Ben and his motley crew are as clueless as those up on the Hill. Getting it right doesn't ramp up deflation concerns and send the stock market down 266 points, it's worst day in five months. Look for the next set of those recently released job numbers to be revised upwards big time.
Central banks have been selling and hedge funds net long the yellow stuff. There's an old saw in medicine: treat the patient, not a lab number. Bernanke and his crowd want the jobless rate well below 7%, a no-can-do certainty with gold above $1,600.
Too much talk in the media about easy money ramping up inflation. It was beginning to gain traction.
Then there's that tiny island of Cyprus. Caught in a bureaucratic squeeze, central bankers there suddenly threaten to unload what is most likely it's officially bloated gold holdings. More gold than that of either Spain or France. Meanwhile, no one really knows how much gold is held by whom.
Enter Goldman Sachs, the huge investment banking firm with more ties to central banks and central bankers than the annual economic confab at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Check out the names Dudley, Draghi and Carney. If you need some help click on the link below.
On April 10th Goldman recommended dumping commodities, singling out the recent weakness in gold. The release came just a few days after hedge funds and investors purchased one of the dips.
If you're sniffing manipulation, you're getting warm. Goldman Sachs has another name in many circles, Government Sachs.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30/goldman-sachs-connections-with-central-banks-reach-ever-deeper-after-hire.html
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)