MORE FROM OIL PATCH

 Here's more from the oil patch.

We welcome this news and so should you if you want to make any serious money from this sector over the the next economic up turn. And there will be one.

Moreover, we've been talking about it for some time. We're looking out beyond next year to 2016-17 and we like our chances.

Every day that passes we like the oil patch more and more. 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-stays-rangebound-brent-wti-spread-narrows-further-2014-09-30-21034059?dist=afterbell

Quotes like this one and others about slowing homes sales and falling consumer confidence make us relatively certain the Yellen-led Fed will overstay the soft money party and have to play meaningful catch-up.
  
"Internal pressure within the Federal Reserve on Janet Yellen to increase interest rates will recede in the wake of the surprisingly weak August job report," one economist said.

“There are some voices at the end of the[Fed]  table that feel as if there is sufficient progress in the labor market to think about raising interest rates, but Yellen feels there is still a bit more work to do,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust.
“This report will make is easier for Yellen to find consensus at September,” Tannenbaum said.
Hiring slowed in August to just 142,000 jobs, the smallest gain since December.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/09/05/pressure-for-early-fed-rate-hike-to-recede-after-august-job-report/

The November Brent contract ended Tuesday down $2.53, or 2.6%.

Crude markets opened flat and moved little through the early part of the session. Analysts said a production survey by Reuters seemed to have tipped the market into a midmorning swoon. The survey said supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries hit their highest level in two years in September, thanks to higher output from Saudi Arabia and Libya. With supply of nearly 31 million barrels, the output exceeded OPEC's demand forecast for its own crude of 29.2 million barrels.

OPEC output has become a key focus in the oil market, as production from the U.S., Libya, Iraq and other countries swamp the market. There have been calls for the cartel to curb production, but it has shown little inclination to do so. As a result, prices have tumbled since mid-June as the world has become more adequately supplied.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/crude-oil-rebounds-from-near-two-year-low-1412069887

 The cure for too much supply is too much supply.

OH WELL NOW!

Does this look like a chart to get all excited about?

The idea that markets re not manipulated is a joke. 

What do you call central banks pumping trillions of fiat money into the global system? Feel good or at least feel better money is what we call it.  A headline on a Market Watch story today--"Consumer spending jumps in August"--is all  part of the manipulation.

Food is another example. One wag recently wrote about what he called the sudden stop in rising food prices. It's a stop anyone who visits his or her local market daily will have difficulty finding on the shelves or at the meat counter.

More and more are coming to understand the manipulation, much of it perpetuated by MSM. The recent threat of Scotland secession is a classic example. The scaremongers even attacked one of Scotland's historic products and exports, whiskey, arguing it would suffer if the Yes crowd won.

Given all that, nearly 45 percent of voters there marked their ballots for secession. Much of the same scaremonger tactics punctuate the climate change debate. At some point, however, as usually happens, the manipulation becomes a problem for the master manipulators.

The recent downturn in pump prices for gasoline should come to mind. In one southeastern state, pump prices threatened to drop below three dollars a gallon. States in particular and the Feds rely heavily on gasoline taxes.

According to a Forbes 2013 article, http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2013/04/29/which-state-pays-most-in-gas-taxes/, here are the ten states that pay the most in state gas taxes:

1. New York 50.6
2. California 48.7
3. Hawaii 47.1
4. Connecticut 45.0
5. Illinois 39.1
6. Michigan 38.7
7. Indiana 38.0
8. North Carolina 37.8
9. Washington 37.5
10. Florida 35.5

Tack on another 18.4 percent for the Fed. Here's a later survey. from July of this year. We'll use only California.

3. California >Price per gallon: $4.09 >Number of refineries: 17 (3rd highest) >Tax per gallon: 49.8 cents (2nd highest)
High levels of oil production and refining activity have not led to low gas prices in California. Last year, California was the nation’s third largest producer of oil, behind only Texas and North Dakota. The state also has the third highest refining capacity in the nation. Despite these factors, a gallon of gas in California costs $4.09, versus $3.60 per gallon nationwide. One reason for the high prices is state and local taxes, which average nearly 50 cents per gallon, or more than in any other state except New York. Additionally, California refineries operate at near-capacity due to demand and the state’s strict environmental standards, the EIA notes. These factors make gasoline prices in California especially volatile

Read more: States With the Highest Gasoline Prices in Summer 2014: Hawaii, Alaska, California - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/special-report/2014/07/22/states-with-the-highest-gas-prices-2/#ixzz3EjklWMga
Follow us: @247wallst on Twitter | 247wallst on Facebook

From what we read of late, whether owing to more fuel efficient vehicles or other causes, drivers are consuming less fuel these days. Eventually that will show up in state tax coffers.

Today's Financial Times, quoting a study from the 16th Geneva Report "commissioned by the International Centre for Monetary and Banking Studies and written by senior economists, including three former central bankers," claims interest rate will stay low for longer than  most expect. 

The reason: Time for "households, companies and governments to service their debts and avoid another crash." Calling current conditions "a 'poisonous combination' of record debt and lower growth,"  the report warns the global economy may be headed for another crisis.

Rest assured that local,state and federal governments worldwide has done little if anything to correct structural problems. China and Italy are just two cases in point. China's apparent postponement of financial reform should come to mind. And when it comes to Italy what can anyone say except: "Oh well Now!"
t. man hatter

BUY RIGHT

After all, it isn’t the job of the media to be accurate. It’s the job of the media to get ratings, and it usually does that by telling a story.

The above quote is from Brett Arends http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bp-has-the-stock-market-overreacted-2014-09-25?.

We don't know Arends. But we know a thing or two about BP. We own it. So there. That's our disclosure. We have owned it since the first few weeks of the announced Gulf spill. Though our entry price was not the bottom it was much lower than today's price.

Then we purchased some more. The dividend got cut then restored. We bought more. We also know a thing or two about MSM. And Arends' statement is one of those that make the crooked places straight. Accuracy is not primary in the MSM world.

When one is little kid one's parents usually warn about telling stories. But it's a lesson the little kids of big media never learned, a truth tattoo that never took. We've said it before and we'll say it again: Without villains, there's no need for heroes.

Sure BP still faces some headwinds with legal matters. But just like the U.S. government going after all these so-called banking miscreants, at some point enough is enough.

And we're close for this round of official stick-ups. You hear much talk these days about risk on, risk off. Think cycle on, cycle off.

There are always lots of caveats.That's why you do your homework. Cash in your short-term view of the energy sector and adopt a more mid-term one if you want to make some serious money. The BP drama is in particular overdone as is in general the sector.

Buy right and sit tight.

WE LIKE THE ODDS

The king has finally left the building.

No, we're not talking about Elvis if you're old enough to recall. We're talking bond guru Bill Gross who suddenly jumped ship to Janus Capital this week after 43 mostly upside years at Pimco, the firm he help found all those many moons ago.

Enough has been written already about Gross' scrapes with management and his former CEO Mohamed El-Erian and the current SEC rumblings about possible improprieties at Pimco's ETF fund that was created to mimic the original Gross-managed high flier, Pimco Total Return Fund.

So we'll spare you any rehash. Our interest is should you follow Gross to his new home at Janus Capital. We say yes. The reasons are too many to go into here. Suffice it to use one important word, motivation.

And if you like a cuter play try becoming a spreader, spreading some of your investments between Gross and the new but not so new guy left in charge after Gross' departure, Dan Ivascyn, a pretty good investor himself.

Though it's true top people are difficult to replace. A pretty good investor named Jeff Vinik replaced legendary Peter Lynch at Fidelity. And if you want to get right down to it Buffett superseded one of his famous mentors Benjamin Graham in the value world. And there have been many more.

Truth be told, Gross along with many others were the beneficiaries of the most propitious falling interest rate market in perhaps the history of bond trading, one that most likely won't come around again any time soon.

In fact, we just might be in for a reversal of unknown proportions going the other way if the global economy throws any significance head fakes. Despite what those economists will tell you, there's a lot paper fiat cash afloat in the world.

In our view, the rap about Janus being an equity outfit is over done along with their history of getting seriously burned during the dot-com bubble. They were hardly alone. Gross is also joining a former Pimco guy there.

Gross will set-up shop in Newport Beach and given his reputation he will cajole, wheedle and pay talented, hungry, savvy souls most likely to join him. Moreover, he will probably have less administrative fish to fry.

We like the odds.

YOU EVER HEAR THE ONE

Looking for a fresh villain to pounce on?

Look no further than the latest media miscreant, hedge funds.

First there was Calpers, the humungous California retirement fund, exit and now the Securities and Exchange Commission has joined the fray. As every animal knows there's nothing like the fresh smell of blood.

Now truth be revealed--and it hardly ever is--Calpers was hardly a babe in arms when they decided to go the hedge fund route. They are not above their fair share of greed and chagrin about under performance.

 These boys and girls wanted exposure to assets that were seemingly beyond their collective expertise.We use the term collective here advisedly. Oh what a straight and narrow arrow hindsight is. One of the reasons Calpers cited for its exit is fees, usually understood by man, woman, child and God as 2 percent of assets and 20 percent of returns.

And that omits any deals or leverage these huge state retirement funds wield. Briefly put, it's a lot.

Enter stage left Andrew Bowen, director of the SEC's Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Bowen's office "found a series of deficiencies at the roughly 185 hedge-fund firms in which it completed exams."

Bowen and his horde of bureaucrats claim they want to examine 40 percent of the reportedly 1,500 hedge funds out there.

Hedge funds are not new. They've been around much longer than ETFs. After all this time the agency is just getting around "to scrutinizing" their activities and large public pension groups like Calpers are noticing the high costs associated with investing in them.

And MSM, true to its code, picks up the critical baton. Have hedge funds been guilty of some questionable behavior? Here's the answer with another question: Have bureaucrats and politicians been guilty of the same?

The real question is which of the two groups have done the more damage?  Our money is on the b-p crowd.

 Did you ever hear the one about......
C. S. Green

AS GOOD AS IT GETS

 
 Middle class no more.

For a long time now we're been clamoring that bureaucrats and politicians have been purposely decimating America's middle class.

It's not an accident despite what MSM apologists might try to sell you. And don't for a second think that immigration hasn't been part of that plan, not so much intentionally as unintentionally owing to stupidity and political pandering.

Unintentionally or no, the direct effect is the same. It was once a badge of honor for immigrants to land here and work their way to middle class. These people learned the language, assimilated and were proud of it.

Now, however, there's not a middle class for one to work his or her way to. Some will blame the rich for doing what they do best--get richer.  But blaming them is like blaming a brain surgeon for improving his skill.

Working one's way to middle class is also about getting better. Here a quote from an interesting read on:
http://www.blacklistednews.com/This_Is_About_As_Good_As_Things_Are_Going_To_Get_For_The_Middle_Class_–_And_It’s_Not_That_Good

The U.S. economy has had six full years to bounce back since the financial collapse of 2008, and it simply has not happened.  Median household income has declined substantially since then, total household wealth for middle class families is way down, the percentage of the population that is employed is still about where it was at the end of the last recession, and the number of Americans that are dependent on the government has absolutely exploded.  Even those that claim that the economy is "recovering" admit that we are not even close to where we used to be economically.  

Many hope that someday we will eventually get back to that level, but the truth is that this is about as good as things are ever going to get for the middle class.  And we should enjoy this period of relative stability while we still can, because when the next great financial crisis strikes things are going to fall apart very rapidly.
t. man hatter

LOOKING, LOOKING, GONE

First they said there wasn't, then they said there was and now they're saying there isn't.

That's the latest, according to the Wall Street Journal, from Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei about another economic stimulus package for the world's second largest economy.

The news is out that China's probably not going to meet its 7.5% GDP growth target and the shivers and shakes are rolling through commodity markets. But the real truth is the number was bogus anyway.

Most of these numbers to begin with are cooked. As an old crony trader once told us, markets love excuses to react.  And  anyone who thinks the Fed's numbers are any different doesn't understand the term bias.

On down market days when nobody can find a valid reason for a sell off, old timers use to call it profit taking. But profits get taken everyday and the  market doesn't go down. Mark Twain put it a bit differently: "One of the most striking differences between a cat and a lie is that the cat only has nine lives."

Metals took the brunt of the so-called bad news Monday, copper, zinc and nickel.  But a few days earlier iron ore, an orphan child in this market if there ever was one, led the downturn by hitting a new low, its lowest since 2009.















Here's what Bloomberg calls its chart of the day. Investors got wrong-footed when they bet China would cough up another stimulus package at the first sign of more economic weakness. Brent crude oil futures, as the charts sows, peeled off 1.4% to close near its lowest level since mid-2012.

Extrapolating from last April when Chinese officials puffed up parts of the market including housing investors were looking for more of the same. So far they're still looking, looking, looking.

STAY FOCUSED

 
Nobody is correct all the time.

And nowhere is that probably more personified than in markets, especially market tops and bottoms.

It's easy to be too early or even get caught up in a value trap. In 2006 a colleague wrote an article about the real estate bubble.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/4545/the-love-song-of-the-us-home-owner                                

It was a bit too early. Many of his clients and readers objected at the time. But he made some serious money following a simple credo: buy right and sit tight. In his case he sold right and waited. Serious money means different numbers to different people. That's up to you.

Iron ore overnight last night hit a new low. Mining company stocks are getting hammered again along with precious metals. Seriously over sold sectors make the news almost daily. Pessimism is maximum here, an old saying of the late Sir John Templeton, one of the last century's best investors.

Find maximum pessimism, do your homework. Then buy right and sit tight. Done correctly you'll find some well-earned happiness. Lots of it in fact on your way to the bank.

Here's a length to some good advice in a beaten down sector. Read, research, react. Stay focused. It's about the money.

http://www.mining.com/web/i-was-early-but-im-still-buying-frank-giustra-fiore-financial-corp/