Friday, May 16, 2014

AIR CONDITIONING AND FALLING KNIVES

Here's what we'll call a recent central bank round up.

You might have already read our post on what Pimco's Bill Gross had to say about interest rates, bonds and his new neutral, a 2 percent yield on 10-year Treasuries.

--The Fed noted US rates will most likely stay low irrespective of jobs and inflation data.

--The Bank of England ruled out an interest rate hike for now, again despite improving jobs and manufacturing reports.

--The Mario Daghi-led  ECB has been titillating investors for a while now without any simple follow up or action.

It reminds of the old joke about the city of Houston's horrid summer humidity. A couple park their top-down convertible in Lover's Lane late one night and start getting intimate. When the guy reaches for the button to put the top up for more privacy, he accidentally switches on the air conditioner full blast.

The shock of cool air blows the lady's dress up around her neck to which she replies: "That's great! But doesn't anyone do anything by hand any more."

--In Japan it's Abernomics City where consumers have been on a spending spree to escape an onerous consumption tax. If bond yields there--already below those on US bonds--get any lower they will turn into a politician and run for public office.

So here's a simple question. Will these falling yields at some future date turn into the proverbial falling knife? And if so who gets burned and how much?



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