Given the Fed's past record, timing is not one of their better strengths. Following is. A business associate, a pretty darn solid commodities trader we'll call Harry, refers to the Fed as one of the better lagging indicators out there.
The thing about Harry is you never know when he's going to hit town. It's usually a surprise phone call, an abrupt arrangement for a brief lunch and a few good glasses of some decent wine.
We've known Harry for a while and to say he's a bit eccentric is like saying it don't snow in Minneapolis in the winter time. Last time we met with Harry it was at one of those little Italian joints with the red and white checkered tablecloths and tiny white vases with a red rose sticking out in a strip mall near LAX.
Harry's always on his way somewhere. He's one of those investors who likes to visit companies and countries not just read about them. It was dark inside especially coming in from the warn spring Southern California sunshine.
Harry was sitting in the back booth with his laptop ablaze. I slid into the seat across from him and before I could exchange more than a short hello a waitress appeared and took our order. I don't like to drink wine in the middle of the day because it makes me feel fuzzy. Harry informed me he had a plane in catch to Latin America a few hours later so the wine was more welcome than the food.
Harry's got a lot of Hollywood in him, a couple of sips of the red stuff and he's already cut to the chase.
"So what's your take on Yellin?" I asked.
"A good fence straddler; she's swinging for the consensus ball.
It makes being wrong easier to swallow. There's a crazy bird that lays its eggs in other bird's nests. Substitute mess for eggs and other people's laps for other bird's nests and you gotta good idea what these folks do."
How could so many so-called experts around the same table be so wrong so often?" I probed.
"It's a function of dynamics based on the false assumption that we humans can get our arms around something so big and so nebulous with a bunch of quack econometric models....Arrogance, plain human arrogance."
After some more market talk and a decent lunch, the waitress came, the check got paid and we walked out into the bright sunlit parking lot.
I stood there for a moment watching Harry stroll to his rental car when he suddenly turned around and hollered: "Forget pessimism! Trade arrogance. It's human nature."
With that he hopped into his car, pulled the door tight and faded into the heavy mid-afternoon Century Boulevard traffic.
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/Pimco-The-Whites-of-Their-Eyes/5/1/2014/id/54816
No comments:
Post a Comment