Tuesday, July 12, 2016

And They Have

This is one of those who's correct and who's wrong scenarios. What the article really shows is the panic among central banks and their taking a short-term outlook for obvious reasons, their credibility is nearly gone. Storming the gates could be just over the horizon.

It reminds of that old poem from the dying mother."Don't let my boy grow up to be a central banker, the dying mother said. Don't let my boy grow up to be a central banker, I'd rather see him dead."

After the Abe election victory Japanese investors expect more monetary oomph. The BOE head honcho, Mark Carney, is on record for saying he will provide stock market fuel. Magic Mario Draghi is still on the loose, sort-sellers worst nightmare. In the short run. For the entire article zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-12/mystery-who-pushing-stocks-all-time-highs-has-been-solved.
The long term short-the-market theme is still alive and well, yet one must be alert as to when and how one positions his or her play. These are scared people who fully understand now if this thing unravels and gets really ugly, a lamp post with their name on it might being waiting somewhere. These are tough times and tough times require tough people. Uncertainty is the rule of the day now, a lot more so than when that Berlin Wall crumbled and global bureaucrats got the opportunity of a millennium to screw it up. And the have.

One conundrum stumping investors in recent months has been how, with investors pulling money out of equity funds (at last check for 17 consecutive weeks) at a pace that suggests a full-on flight to safety, as can be seen in the chart below which shows record fund outflows in the first half of the year - the fastest pace of withdrawals for any first half on record...
... are these same markets trading at all time highs?  We now have the answer.

Recall at the end of January when global markets were keeling over, that Citi's Matt King showed that despite aggressive attempts by the ECB and BOJ to inject constant central bank liquidity into the gunfible global markets, it was the EM drain via reserve liquidations, that was causing a shock to the system, as net liquidity was being withdrawn, and in the process stocks were sliding.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/07/03/outflows%20ici_0.jpg

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