Collection Day

The truth is the Fed doesn't have any better or more insightful outlook on the U.S. economy than anyone else. And that's a truth that needs to be told wide and loud.

Minutes from the last FOMC meeting are out today and MSM will, as is their style, be all over these backward geared notes. A big difference with these minutes is the timing. The meeting took place a week before what now is capturing the attention of nearly all, the mighty Brexit. Though the market has recovered from much of the initial impact, Brexit continues to fray nerves. Rumor has it that's one of the reasons pharmaceutical stocks are up. But we have not checked the numbers.

Things weren't so rosy looking before the UK vote and so pundits will scan the tea leaves of this meeting to postulate more theories to tell us what we already know. It keeps these pundits employed. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, just before the vote, released this blockbuster, it "could clearly have consequences," for markets and the economy. Yellen has a reputation for her cut-to-the-chase specifics.

Since Brexit was a UK event we could have received pretty much the same sterling information for apparently a lot less taxpayer money by simply surveying some public garbage collectors. That's what  author William A. Sherder did way back in 1998. In his book, The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions, Sherder, a business consultant, cites a 1985 article from the Economist that compared the accuracy of UK sanitation workers' predictions with the heads of several top-drawer multinational firms about Britain's future economic growth.

The results: They tied.  Next Tuesday is our collection day. Up to now all we've been doing is tossing the guy an occasional early morning wave. Maybe we can get a better return on our buck and cancel all those expensive subscriptions from here on.