Saturday, July 9, 2016

Before Not After.

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The scaremongering never ends. The pundits said the unexpected Brexit outcome would unleash an unprecedented reign of negative economic chaos.

Now all the turmoil from that event might not be in, to be sure. But the longer it goes, the chances increase the weaker it gets. There were a few who claimed Brexit if it won would be another big Y2K event , a big yawn, if you recall all the disaster many expected at the beginning of the new millennium and the world's then rising computer dependence.

Meanwhile, some questionable so-called recent nonfarm payroll jobs numbers have the bull songbirds singing again. It's a known fact people find what they're looking for. There are two sides to it. If you ever spent anytime sitting in a boring college class you might recognize it as the positive and negative halo effects.

Athlete's get hung with it all the time. Just lose a big game and see what happens. Boxing is a classic example. A really good fighter loses a tough fight and he or she and their trainers and everyone else associated with him fall off the globe. A few sports let some also-ran participants into the final match-ups. And occasionally, to be sure, one of them wins it all.

The stock market, even if it makes a new closing high, has gone nowhere for a longtime. Some refer to that as distribution. Valuations are like the bar in the high jump, six feet ain't high for some folks. But the high jump is only one event in the whole meet. What's going on around the stock market?

We'll spare you the litany of negatives and won't insult your intelligence with the MSM cliches like walls of worry. Taking some profits off the table is like having a fully inflated spare tire in your trunk. That presupposed checking it occasionally to see if it's still full. The stock market--if you want to label it such--is about the only shred of credibility the Fed has left. Ironically, however, it's own creation might turn out to be the cause of the Fed's final denouement.

For most of a decade central banks have been spinning their so-called economic magic--if you're Japanese it's been almost forever--and people see the results. You'll have more luck today marrying a California virgin than finding a member of the once sought-after, widely-available middle class. The middle class was once what an associate, without any condescension or contempt because he like the rest of us was a card carrying member, labeled keeping-the-lid-on-segment of our society. Central banks in any global explosion will prove what they are, about as useful as a set of teats on a bull.

Change is afoot in the globe today. Like it or lump it. Change is what all those climate change converts are screaming about, now criticizing absence any tact or remorse the numerous anti-converts for resisting it. And that's what all the revulsion against Brexit is about. How dare you ingrates vote to leave our perfectly structured-elitist-conceived-status quo-interventionist paradise.

Markets reportedly discount the future. Take the hint and structure your portfolio, if you still have one left, before not after it gets here. And sprinkle in some of that glittering stuff along the way just for safe keeping.



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