Monday, May 23, 2016

ECONOMETRIC ASTROLOGY

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How do you recognize bad advice? Well, here's an example from Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, an economist and former academic talking head who now runs a private consulting firm and consults for CNBC.

China's much in the news lately, the second largest economy casting a giant global economic shadow. Discussing China and it's economic woes in a recent piece, "Why you should take a broader view of  China's economy," the former OECD economist writes:

I know that there will be people screaming that the Chinese numbers are fabrications. I would stay out of that, and so should you, as long as these numbers have the imprimatur of official international organizations which examine the Chinese economy.

Most likely the last thing you want to rely on to get any semblance of an accurate economic picture of any nation--let alone one as large as China--is these huge bureaucratic international miasmas passed off as official international organizations larded with layers of econometric-trained, myopic economists.

Trusting numbers that have their imprimatur is much like astrology: guaranteed to give you mostly wrong answers.

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