THE END OF APRIL

What a difference a few short months makes.

If you've ever run a portfolio you know what we're talking about. And if you're one of those so-called political soothsayers who predict election outcomes you also are getting the idea.

Coming into this year the investment landscape looked straight forward enough. In December the mighty Fed had not only spoken, it actually acted, hiking interest rates 25 basis points and calmly projected at least four more well-spaced hikes ahead. The mighty emperor QE after a longer life expectancy than anyone but a government bureau could dream of was dead.

In the presidential primary festival that happens every four years many of the political pundits who live, breathe and spout off from their editorial caves poked fun and popped jokes about a well known, brash New York businessman with a strange blondish soufflé hairdo. He couldn't make a splash in a swimming from a ten meter board. And winning his party's nomination, well, that only happens in Hollywood. That's for some middle-aged, uneducated Caucasian Iowa tow truck drivers who butcher what's left, if anything, of decent grammar every time they speak.

The dollar was set so most believed to appreciate against the yen and the euro, the Fed would continue its tightening act and emerging markets should be avoided more than long john underwear in July. But then along came not a fellow named Jones but slower economic growth than most expected including those lovers of everything Chinese.

Bonds continued to rally and consumers either forgot or couldn't afford to spend their expected savings from cheaper gasoline, no doubt much of it siphoned off by soaring rents; and that magical 2% inflation number central bankers everywhere worship so much proved harder to find than a California virgin.

In currencies linear thinking took a drubbing when the Bank of Japan acted not to act. First quarter corporate earnings turned out more disappointing than our old girlfriend and that was with most still wearing their heavy Wall Street makeup. Goldman Sachs, the newest investment banking friend to every proletarian, presciently noted the soaring yen posed an "existential challenge" to the Bank of Japan.

All of this took us through just the end of April.